Orban asks for an exemption from US sanctions on Russian energy. Trump likely refuses, offers US LNG instead and urges Orban not to block future EU aid for Ukraine. In return, Orban requests Trump’s support ahead of next year’s elections.

My best guess is that the push on EU membership is really a push on more realistic goals - SAFE cooperation and a revised customs union - that are both, in themselves, hard to achieve but at least in the ballpark of reality. EU accession is not and the Turks are no dummies.

Germany’s centre-right leader in 🇪🇺 Parliament (EP) is under investigation for alleged misuse of EU funds. This follows Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement case earlier this year (www.npr.org/2025/03/31/g...) and a 2023 report showing 140 members of EPs misused allowances (www.ftm.eu/articles/eur...)

The #EU just released its annual review of potential members: tinyurl.com/24u3kxze Here is a table summarizing where each country stands: #Albania and #Montenegro are the closest to eventual membership. #Georgia, #Serbia, and #Turkiye appear the furthest. The others fall somewhere in between.

“if you want to win the next election focus on the bread and butter issues, repeat what exactly you are for, not against. Build an inclusive ‘we’ and speak to the things that make people’s lives better.” Not sure on strength of evidence, but I do know voters prefer far-right original over copy!

AI makes it even harder to know what is real and what is not. And when we cannot agree on basic facts, democracy suffers. Ultimately, we all pay the price.

I’m not optimistic about Georgia’s EU membership prospects (or those of most other candidate countries). I explained why in this @goodauth.bsky.social article: tinyurl.com/2wjzb5s5 What we are seeing in Georgia now ⬇️ is just the latest sign of more authoritarianism.

As someone who grew up watching Terminator 1 (and, even better, Terminator 2) way too many times, this humanoid thing feels very sketchy. www.wsj.com/tech/persona...

🇹🇷 Football Federation just revealed a shocking(!) fact: Of 571 referees, 371 have betting accounts; 152 actively bet: tinyurl.com/ypywjww4 Believing no insider info leaks to staff, clubs, players, associates is naive. That’s the legal side. The illegal betting is the iceberg’s hidden half.

As expected, #EU leaders have postponed the decision on whether to use frozen Russian assets to support #Ukraine. But they agreed to financially support Ukraine via other means: bbc.com/news/article... In my @goodauth.bsky.social piece below, I explain why seizing these assets is so challenging.

What a Sunday it’s been so far: 🇮🇱 suspends aid and strikes Gaza after accusing Hamas of violating truce: tinyurl.com/4dt2bsfe Trump urged 🇺🇦 to accept 🇷🇺’s terms or be destroyed: tinyurl.com/4cbwzebr Turkish leader says Northern Cyprus should unite with 🇹🇷 following elections: tinyurl.com/yhm5em6u

Breaking news: Donald Trump urged Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Russia’s terms for ending its war in a volatile White House meeting on Friday, warning that Vladimir Putin had said he would 'destroy' Ukraine if it did not agree on.ft.com/4ou5h1A

Northern Cypriot Turks have today elected pro-federation candidate Tufan Erhürman for their new president by landslide victory. Erdoğan-backed Ersin Tatar, who promoted two-state solution for the divided island, has lost. Turkey still holds the key to any future talks. www.birgun.net/haber/kuzey-...

Israel Suspends Aid and Strikes Gaza After Accusing Hamas of Violating Truce: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/w...

This is a step in the right direction: Helping 🇺🇦 without asking 🇪🇺 voters for more money is tempting. ~$190B would strengthen 🇺🇦's defense (as well as the European defense industry) significantly. But there are legal/economic/political issues 🇪🇺 must address before using the assets. It will take time.

Using frozen 🇷🇺 assets could aid 🇺🇦, but seizing them would likely violate international law, which requires asset freezes to be temporary measures. To help 🇺🇦 without breaking the law, 🇪🇺 is exploring a reparations loan. But it must navigate possible vetoes from 🇭🇺, 🇸🇰, or even 🇨🇿. It will take time!

🇫🇷 Conseil d’État has rejected Marine Le Pen’s appeal to halt the enforcement of her penalty for misclassifying National Rally staff as European Parliament assistants. As I explain in my @goodauth.bsky.social piece, this bars her from running in the next presidential election: tinyurl.com/2mseb2ad

One risk is that any 🇪🇺 member could veto the renewal of sanctions on 🇷🇺 as early as Feb 1. Lifting them after 🇪🇺 has seized Russian assets would cause big legal problems. 🇪🇺 is working to change it so a majority (not unanimity) is needed to renew sanctions. But it will take time. tinyurl.com/5atezk2u

Hungarian #spies reportedly recruited #EU staff (using bribes). The alleged goal was to steal confidential EU info (e.g., details about anti-fraud probes) and send it to #Hungary. If true, this is a new low, even for Orban. But the consequences for 🇪🇺 (and #Ukraine and #Russia) might be massive. 1/5

🚨🚨 #Denmark aims to ban #socialmedia for children under 15. PM Mette Frederiksen says "We have unleashed a monster" to Danish lawmakers. 🧵https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-mette-frederiksen-partially-ban-social-media-children-under-15/

Among the four scenarios BBC outlines for France, the most likely to me is snap elections soon, which the far-right would win. Macron may then rely on their failure to govern France to weaken the far-right's presidential bid in 2027. bbc.com/news/article...

The traditional 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 alliance that created and has guided 🇪🇺 since then is at stake here. 🇫🇷 under Macron has pressed for a more “strategically autonomous” Europe. If the far-right or the far-left parties in France get what they want, it is a red alarm for 🇪🇺

A must-read interview with Figen Yüksekdağ, imprisoned politician and former co-chair of the pro-Kurdish HDP (now DEM). While she supports the current Kurdish opening, Yüksekdağ criticizes the Turkish government's approach, both in substance and form. bianet.org/haber/figen-...

Here is something on Czechia's elections and the implications for the EU from me:

I am not an expert in Czech politics by any definition. But it is truly mind-boggling to see “experts” describe Babiš’s ANO as center-left and pro-Ukraine.

Bad news for the EU and Ukraine: Czechia has become the third potential veto player against pro-EU and pro-Ukraine initiatives. More so than ever before. It’s also another reason to be less optimistic about corruption control and the rule of law in Czechia, the wider region and Europe as a whole.

I really hope the current peace talks in the Middle East do not fall victim to a “spoiling” strategy (violence deliberately timed to erode trust between negotiating parties and derail the process (Kydd & Walter 2006)). www.belfercenter.org/publication/...

A new resolution by PACE warns Georgia of an impending "one-party dictatorship incompatible with Council of Europe membership" ahead of the October 4 local elections, with no expectation of any integrity or credibility, @civil.ge civil.ge/archives/703...

Do we now know any better how Erdoğan’s US visit went? Some visibility for Erdoğan (to be used mostly domestically, but diluted by Trump’s “rigged elections” comment) and a Halkbank deal, in return for expensive commitments (US LNG, 200+ Boeings) and no progress on F-35s? Am I missing anything?

If the pro-EU PAS wins a majority, 🇲🇩 keeps walking toward 🇪🇺. If the pro-Russian BEP wins a majority, 🇲🇩 moves closer to 🇷🇺. Any outcome short of a majority for either one likely leads to some level of political instability and deadlock (depending on the parties’ weight in the parliament).

It turns out that Turkey needs the approval of the U.S. Congress not only for the F-35s but also for the engines of its fifth-generation aircraft, Kaan. www.ekonomim.com/amp/gundem/h...

Because of classes I was able to catch up on today’s developments just now. From what I see, the 🇺🇸🇹🇷 agreements announced are mostly about 🇹🇷 saying yes to 🇺🇸 demands, despite their considerable costs for 🇹🇷 (e.g. natural gas, nuclear deal, Boeing). I wonder what 🇹🇷 is actually gaining from 🇺🇸 in return.

I mentioned Moldova (among others) in my latest @goodauth.bsky.social piece on whether current candidates might join the EU soon. I argue the chances are slim: tinyurl.com/2wjzb5s5 In a short piece, I could not get into every reason. Russian meddling is one more factor, and ⬇️ is a real-life example

Since Apr 2024, 13 UN states 🇦🇲🇦🇺🇧🇧🇧🇸🇨🇦🇮🇪🇯🇲🇲🇽🇳🇴🇸🇮🇪🇸🇹🇹🇬🇧 recognized 🇵🇸. With 🇵🇹 today and 🇦🇩🇧🇪🇫🇷🇱🇺🇲🇹🇸🇲 very soon, 20 new states over the last 17 months. A 15% increase. That will bring the total to 157 of 193 UN members. Over 80% of the world.

EU leaders have to stop treating the rule of law as a bargaining chip with leaders like Orban. Doing so weakens the EU, erodes its core values, and fuels further authoritarianism.

The future of E.U. enlargement: dreams vs. reality. Despite the promises of a broader European Union, the road to membership remains long. Read the latest from @mertkartal.bsky.social: goodauthority.org/news/the-fut...

In response to Viktor Orban’s recent claim that “law and order is collapsing” in Sweden, the Swedish PM cites Orban’s own words from 2007: “Oil may come from the East, but freedom always comes from the West.”

The fate of meaningful opposition in authoritarian regimes often follows a familiar pattern.

This is very disturbing!

My research on Central & Eastern Europe suggests good governance depends on opposition parties’ commitment to democratic practices. Without that, most other factors, such as governments’ promises or EU membership (prospects), lose their effect over time. It feels very relevant to Turkey today.

Research shows external aid (e.g., EU funding) serves as an opportunity for corruption where deterrents against corruption are limited. (And there are too many of these countries in the EU.) The EU should have understood by now that funds with no accountability mechanism do more harm than good.

Hard to believe we are living in times like these.

If Ukraine gets a “NATO-style” guarantee without actual membership, this may have the unintended consequence of making NATO weaker since some NATO members would not want to (and are not required to) help Ukraine. This would likely hurt NATO’s credibility and any remaining trust among its members.

Ekrem Imamoglu on how Turkey can have peace at home and respect abroad economist.com/by-invitatio... from The Economist

EPSA have announced that they will hold a conference in July 2026. 😵‍💫 We understand that there might be some confusion about EPSS and EPSA. 👉🏽 So we thought we would clarify some things. A short 🧵

Account to follow: There aren't many really active voices writing about #Turkey on this site. @cplaisant.bsky.social has been wonderfully engaged, sharing articles in multiple languages, and providing Eng translations of important Turkish texts, along with his own analysis. Well worth a follow

This comes right before the EU meets tomorrow to consider sanctions on Israel, which would be a first if approved. But it is unlikely. The mood tomorrow will likely be celebratory: Israel has agreed to allow aid into Gaza. Key players like Germany & the Commission will likely not press for more.

I think Canada’s talk of EU ties is not really about joining the EU as a member state. It is more about showing the world it is a reliable, values-based partner (and less dependent on the US, especially as American politics grow more uncertain). This example ⬇️ is a reflection of this strategy.

George Orwell warned: bad writing leads to bad thinking. Academia trains us to write for journals, not the public. Clarity feels risky, because it exposes us. But clear communication is essential for democracy. So how do we do it? 🧵 New post 👉 catherineeunicedevries.substack.com/p/why-clarit...

TİHEK refers to “Türkiye İnsan Hakları ve Eşitlik Kurumu” (Human Rights and Equality Institution of Türkiye) TIHEK has three main tasks: “protection and promotion of human rights, guaranteeing individuals’ right to equal treatment, and fight against torture.” www.tihek.gov.tr/public/edito...