You don’t have to caveat your condemnation of blatant disregard for international law with your negative opinion about Maduro. Indeed, it’s better if you don’t.

an annoying thing about realists insisting they're the no-nonsense reality-based group is that few of their predictions have been based in reality

It's New Year, so time to look back and forward. These are 10 things I think we need to recognise in 2026. It’s a response to what I think are profoundly damaging mistaken assumptions I’ve heard and read from practitioners, journalists, and analysts in 2025. Warning: very long🧵

The number of air raid alerts by region in Ukraine throughout 2025. Day and night.

This is incredible. Knock yourself out, Russian intel services. “A person familiar with the matter …said analysts at the agency were verbally informed that they were not to follow or report on Russian threats, even though this had previously been a main focus for the agency.” Cc @ciaranm.bsky.social

One of the two parties Trump is negotiating with is brazenly lying to his face about something as serious and easily disprovable as a large scale assassination attempt... and he not only couldn't give less of a shit but credulously repeats the lie to the world's press. Should be a bigger deal.

Why is this important? If the onus is on "Ukraine can't do anything aggressive or security guarantees go bye bye" (esp. as in original peace proposal), this is how easy Russia can manipulate it. One phone call can end Ukraine's protections. Russia can claim what it wants and prevent investigation.

Michael Weiss: “If the U.S. doesn't dismiss this transparent Russian attempt at undermining the framework, then both Europeans and Ukrainians know well in advance exactly what American security guarantees are worth.”

For people who don't read Russian, this is the absolutely definitely true but unverifiable thing that just happens to have occurred at the most convenient time imaginable for the Kremlin.

Sauron wants to see Frodo succeed.

So Putin is clearly laying out that he wants to "reintegrate" Ukraine in Russia. Get a puppet government, buy it off with cheap gas, neutralize its military, get rid of the "fascists" aka supporters of Ukrainian independence, reclaim RU cultural and economic hegemony. Peace through conquest.

Jesus Christ

The celebration and digital metastasization of conspiratorial thinking culminating with the U.S. head of health and human services believing that and governing as if modern diseases don’t emerge naturally, pandemics are all manmade, and science (not the complexities of nature) is to blame.

The steady stream of reports about “progress” in peace talks can make a misleading impression. 3 things to remember: 1) much of the current talking is between 🇺🇸-🇺🇦-🇪🇺; 2) Putin has shown no interest in compromise; 3) All sides are at pains to show Trump that they are interested in a deal.

Over 500,000 consumers remain without power in Kyiv and Kyiv region as of now, the Energy Ministry reported.

Christmas attack on civilians in Kyiv. Sure, the Russians want peace

Schools bombed. Football fields destroyed. Swimming pools damaged. Ukraine’s children are losing the spaces meant for learning, play, and safety. Read our investigation ⬇️ www.bellingcat.com/news/2025/12...

Nearly continuous drone attack on Kyiv region lasts over 16 hours. Air raid alert sounded again in the capital.

whether it's bombing hospitals or being extremely rude to putin, both sides have made some questionable decisions this holiday season

new GWU National Security Archive release putin in his first meeting with bush, june 2001, already pining for the empire

Christmas came early to the Russia scholars with Santa declassifying the Bush-Putin meeting transcripts. That's 2001. Ukraine is Russian land, simply given away for no reason, as if USSR had not collapsed and there was no Ukraine independence referendum. And, long before the 2008 Bucharest Summit

Also - I notice a circulating narrative that “students know more about AI and how to use it” than older academics. Yet every time I tell a new group of students that genAI tools regularly confabulate, fabricate content, create whole fake papers .. many of them are surprised.

Do not cite an academic paper unless you’ve read it

“This month, after Witkoff finished his sixth round of meetings with Putin, a Russian company sent him home with 11 pounds of red caviar, according to the country’s Trade and Industry Ministry. In fact, it was a mid-tier brand of roe that the company now wants to market as “Trumpovka.” “

The russians have opened ticket sales for the Mariupol Drama Theater — the same place they bombed in 2022 w/ hundreds of people inside. The first performance is scheduled for Dec 25. On the bones of Ukrainians, they plan to stage a "fairy comedy" titled A Gorgeous Wedding. Via: Mariupol council.

Kremlin wages war to force Ukraine to surrender its sovereignty. Ukraine refuses and fights back. Heroically. To say that Ukraine does not want peace because it refuses to surrender is like saying that an assault victim who is resisting wants the assault to continue.

I’m talking to Canadian radio audiences this morning about the latest in the Russo-Ukrainian war and from the hosts’ shocked reaction, I’m realizing that few have heard about the Ru army’s « human safari » campaign in Kherson. More attn is needed. www.chathamhouse.org/publications...

European leaders outline their security guarantees for Ukraine: - Support for the Ukrainian army (800k troops) - Multinational force inside Ukraine - Mechanism to monitor & verify ceasefire - Legally binding assistance for future attacks (Article 5-like) - Post-war recovery assistance - EU accession

Children Helping Science is a platform that lets researchers conduct studies online with kids. Incredibly important resource for psychological science. An anonymous donor is matching contributions up to 100K through the end of the year - please consider supporting this high-value system if you can!

this is one of the most psychotic things Trump has ever posted

TIL nearly all of the "Miracle Max" scene from Princess Bride was improvised by Billy Crystal, and it took three ten hour days to shoot, because they couldn't get through his improv without everyone (cast and crew) laughing so hard it ruined the audio. Mandy Patinkin bruised a rib holding it in.

Now in press at Topics in Cognitive Science! We review children's understanding of different kinds of visual media across contexts, and argue that this work has important implications for childhood learning and assessment tools @cogscisociety.bsky.social onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Ukraine / Україна @Ukraine Dec 10 A new mural has appeared at the Kyiv children’s hospital — the one Russia deliberately struck in July 2024. Thank you to all who help us guard our skies and protect our children’s lives.

WSJ

This is a fundraising post! An anonymous donor is matching contributions to Children Helping Science up to 100K through the end of the year - if it's in your giving budget, please consider supporting open science infrastructure! giving.mit.edu/search/node/... Details below...

When we see something that's moving, our memories about it end up projected forward in time: We remember it further along than it was. In a new paper in 𝘗𝘴𝘺𝘤𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘰𝘨𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘤𝘪𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦, out today and led by @dillonplunkett.bsky.social, we demonstrate that this happens even when there is 𝙣𝙤 𝙢𝙤𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩𝙨𝙤𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙧.🧵

We live in a maddening upside down world in which Washington spurns European democracies whilst uncritically recycling Russia's musty imperial narratives that effectively deny Ukraine's right to sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Our new study provides rare causal evidence about NYC’s speed camera program. We find large reductions in collisions (30%) and injuries (16%) near intersections with cameras. www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1... @astagoff.bsky.social ky.social @brendenbeck.bsky.social nbeck.bsky.social 🧪

Social media ~ mental health meta-analysis: - Cited 7 times - The 45 included studies appear not to exist - The authors’ institution appears not to exist - The journal editors won’t respond

Today’s Russian papers are loving the new US national security strategy. One Russian paper on the implications for Europe: “Trump isn’t their Daddy any more.” Kremlin spokesman comments: “The adjustments in the updated strategy correspond in many ways to our vision” #ReadingRussia

There’s a fantastic developmental science resource called Children Helping Science, at MIT (childrenhelpingscience.com). Researchers run child studies online, Parents sign up & participate with their kids. CHS got an offer from an anonymous donor: matching gifts up to $100K through December!

Trump's national security strategy is out and some of the Europe sections are shocking. "...the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed gives cause for great optimism." www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...

No surprise I guess, but the new Trump National Security Strategy does not condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine nor list upholding the territorial integrity of states as a key priority for the US in Europe.

🚨 New in Nature+Science!🚨 AI chatbots can shift voter attitudes on candidates & policies, often by 10+pp 🔹Exps in US Canada Poland & UK 🔹More “facts”→more persuasion (not psych tricks) 🔹Increasing persuasiveness reduces "fact" accuracy 🔹Right-leaning bots=more inaccurate

The strategy of trying to change Putins mind has not worked. Time to shift to a new strategy focused on changing Putins capabilities. That means more and better weapons for Ukraine and more and better sanctions for Russia.

The call for commentaries on our "Core Perception" paper is now live! We would love to know what you think about this new perspective on the nature of early emerging knowledge. Details here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal... Proposals due Dec 29!

Over many years, in both words and actions, Russia has made it crystal clear that its goal is conquest, with the destruction of Ukraine’s freedom and independence. But with a US government intent on lying about that and trying to get Russia a win, it must be repeated.

Ukraine already tried giving up land for Russia’s word to stop attacking, with the Minsk Agreements of 2014-15. Russia violated them with a full scale invasion in 2022. Why would Ukraine think land for peace would work this time, especially when a Putin-sympathetic US won’t do security guarantees?