James Bailey
@1armedeconomist.bsky.social
📤 45
📥 48
📝 47
Econ Prof at Providence College. Health Economics and Regulation. www.JamesBaileyEcon.com
12 states representing 21% of US high schoolers passed mandates for personal finance classes just since 2022. This sounds like a good idea that will enable students to navigate the modern economy. But does it work in practice?
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/11/13/d...
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Do Required Personal Finance Classes Work?
41 states now require students to take a course in economics or personal finance in order to graduate high school: Source: Council for Economic Education 12 states representing 21% of US high schoo…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/11/13/do-required-personal-finance-classes-work/
4 days ago
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reposted by
James Bailey
Nathan Blascak
7 days ago
My paper on the consumer financial impacts of Missouri's 2005 Medicaid cut with
@1armedeconomist.bsky.social
and Slava Mikhed is finally out in the fall issue of AJHE:
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
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Missouri’s Medicaid Contraction and Consumer Financial Outcomes | American Journal of Health Economics: Vol 11, No 4
Abstract In July 2005, the state of Missouri implemented a series of cuts to its Medicaid program. These cuts resulted in the elimination of the Medical Assistance for Workers with Disabilities progra...
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/729536
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Morgan Housel's new book is pretty good:
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The Art of Spending Money
The author of The Psychology of Money, Morgan Housel, has a new book “The Art of Spending Money” out this month. Its main point is that people tend to be happier spending money on thing…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/10/30/the-art-of-spending-money/
18 days ago
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reposted by
James Bailey
Southern Economic Journal
19 days ago
Kihwan Bae of
@kneecenter.bsky.social
and
@1armedeconomist.bsky.social
of
@provcollege.bsky.social
evaluate the effect of Certificate-of-Need laws on health care workers.
#CertificateOfNeed
#HealthCareWorkers
#Wages
#Employment
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https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12693
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Why are there 60+ songs called "Better Man" and only one called "Better Woman"?
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A Better Man / A Better Woman
There are 62 songs called “Better Man” just on Ultimate Guitar (which doesn’t claim to be comprehensive), plus many more slight variations like “A Better Man” or ̶…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/10/16/a-better-man-a-better-woman/
about 1 month ago
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Where to find data if the government shutdown takes it down:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/10/09/t...
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Triumph of the Data Hoarders 2: The Institutions
Datasets can be pulled offline for all sorts of reasons. As I wrote in February, this shows the value of being a data hoarder- just downloading now any data you think you might want later: Several …
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/10/09/triumph-of-the-data-hoarders-2-the-institutions/
about 1 month ago
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The young have always been more optimistic than the old, but this is no longer the case, at least according to the Michigan consumer sentiment survey:
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What Killed Youth Optimism?
The young have always been more optimistic than the old, but this is no longer the case, at least according to the Michigan consumer sentiment survey: Source: Bloomberg via Joe Weisenthal But as Je…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/09/21/what-killed-youth-optimism/
about 2 months ago
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RIP Current Population Survey Food Supplement 1976-2024
www.wsj.com/economy/trum...
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Exclusive | Trump Administration Cancels Annual Hunger Survey
The government has been measuring food insecurity since the mid-1990s but now says the report has become “overly politicized.”
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trump-administration-cancels-annual-hunger-survey-ca3d3793?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos1
about 2 months ago
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The last time inflation was at or below 2.0% was February 2021. The Fed just cut rates despite inflation being at 2.6%. If you didn’t know about their 2% target & looked only at their actions, what would you guess their target is?
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/09/18/i...
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Is the Fed’s Inflation Target Really 2%?
The Fed has had an official inflation target of 2% since 2012, a commitment they reaffirmed just last month after their policy review: The Committee reaffirms its judgment that inflation at the rat…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/09/18/is-the-feds-inflation-target-really-2/
2 months ago
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The Fed is about to make a mistake:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/09/11/d...
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Don’t Cut Rates
The Federal Reserve will probably cut rates next week: I can’t advise them on the complex politics of this, but based on the economics I think cutting would be a mistake. I see one good reaso…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/09/11/dont-cut-rates/
2 months ago
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New replication project for Health Behavior research. They offer funding if you try to replicate a paper this fall:
www.cos.io/rphb
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Replicability Project: Health Behavior (RPHB)
The Center for Open Science (COS) is launching the Replicability Project: Health Behavior (RPHB), which is a large-scale, multi-team effort to help support a transparent and trustworthy foundation in ...
https://www.cos.io/rphb
2 months ago
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Physically showing up to class is one thing I can still be sure the AI isn't doing for you:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/08/14/w...
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Why I Started Grading Attendance
I’ve taught college classes since 2010, but I never graded attendance directly until this year. I thought that students are adults who can make their own choices about where to spend their ti…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/08/14/why-i-started-grading-attendance/
3 months ago
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Parents work longer instead of retiring in order to keep health insurance for their adult kids:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/08/07/p...
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Parental Job Lock
The Affordable Care Act was supposed to make it easier for American workers to switch jobs by making it easier to get health insurance from sources other than their current employer. Mostly it didn…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/08/07/parental-job-lock/
3 months ago
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Making a clean panel dataset of the historical demographics of US states available here:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/31/s...
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State Demographics 1962-2024
I provide a simple, clean panel dataset of the historical demographics of US states here. I made this state-year level dataset from the individual-level responses in the Current Population Survey&#…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/31/state-demographics-1962-2024/
4 months ago
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New dataset gives exact dates for when every state passed and repealed their Certificate of Need laws:
ciceroinstitute.org/blog/compreh...
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Comprehensive Certificate of Need (CON) Laws Dataset | Cicero Institute
Filling the Gap: Issue Areas Related Content Certificate of Need (CON) laws require doctors and hospitals to get special permission from the state to open
https://ciceroinstitute.org/blog/comprehensive-certificate-of-need-con-laws-dataset/
4 months ago
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Iowa just joined Connecticut, Kentucky, Michigan, Vermont, and West Virginia in the club of states to repeal Certificate of Need requirements for Birth Centers in the past 2 years:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/17/f...
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Freedom for Freestanding Birth Centers
Iowa recently joined the growing list of states where midwives or obstetricians can open a freestanding birth center without needing to convince a state board that it is economically necessary. The…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/17/freedom-for-freestanding-birth-centers/
4 months ago
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What I learned trying to stump frontier AI models:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/10/w...
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Writing Humanity’s Last Exam
When every frontier AI model can pass your tests, how do you figure out which model is best? You write a harder test. That was the idea behind Humanity’s Last Exam, an effort by Scale AI and …
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/10/writing-humanitys-last-exam/
4 months ago
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At this point John Maynard Keynes himself would be saying to cut the deficit, but we're about to make it bigger:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/03/t...
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The Ugly Gray Rhino Gathers Speed
A black swan is a crisis that comes out of nowhere. A gray rhino, by contrast, is a problem we have known about for a long time, but can’t or won’t stop, that will at some point crash i…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/07/03/the-ugly-gray-rhino-gathers-speed/
5 months ago
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reposted by
James Bailey
Adam Shapiro
5 months ago
Healthcare should be a macroeconomics topic
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
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ADP reports that the US economy lost jobs in June for the first time since March 2023, and only the second time since 2020:
5 months ago
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Technologies like hydrophones and satellites, if used well, will increasingly make public waters more “excludable” and reduce “tragedy of the commons” overfishing:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/06/26/e...
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Excluding “Non-Excludable” Goods
Intro microeconomics classes teach that some goods are “non-excludable”, meaning that people who don’t pay for them can’t be stopped from using them. This can lead to a R…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/06/26/excluding-non-excludable-goods/
5 months ago
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Of people who said they were 100% sure they would start a business in the next 2 years, only 20% actually did. Intentions are very different from actions (according to the Germany Socioeconomic Panel)
5 months ago
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When your survey is just 2 years old, it is easy to set records, but still striking: Consumer sentiment at record lows, consumers cutting discretionary spending at record highs in response
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/06/19/l...
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LIFE Survey Comes Alive
Last year I posted that the Philly Fed had started a new quarterly survey on Labor, Income, Finances, and Expectations (LIFE). I thought it looked promising but had yet to achieve its potential: It…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/06/19/life-survey-comes-alive/
5 months ago
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Data on teaching loads are surprisingly scarce, but here's the best I can figure: Full-time tenured or tenure-track professors in the US teach an average of 4.72 undergraduate courses & 0.91 graduate courses, for a total of 5.63 courses per academic year.
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/06/05/t...
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The Average Teaching Load of US Professors
“One of the closest guarded secrets in American higher education is the average teaching loads of faculty.” -Richard Vedder I saw this quote in a recent piece arguing that US professors should teac…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/06/05/the-average-teaching-load-of-us-professors/
5 months ago
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Someone must track total bond issues by industry sector right? I couldn't find this for all companies, but I used Compustat data to calculate debt trends for public companies:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/05/22/c...
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Corporate Debt by Industry Sector
A reporter recently told me she thought there is a national trend toward hospitals issuing more bonds. I tried to verify this and found it surprising hard to do with publicly available data. But on…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/05/22/corporate-debt-by-industry-sector/
6 months ago
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Princeton is offering an online PhD Macrofinance class this summer that is free and open to PhD students at all schools:
initiative.princeton.edu/2025-macrofi...
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2025 MacroFinance Online Summer School – Princeton Initiative
https://initiative.princeton.edu/2025-macrofinance-online-summer-school/
6 months ago
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Population is still a big predictor of state-level regulation, on top of the red/blue dynamics people expect:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/05/15/t...
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The Most Regulated States
The Mercatus Center has put together a page of “Snapshots of State Regulation” using data from their State RegData project. Their latest data suggests that population is still a big pre…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/05/15/the-most-regulated-states/
6 months ago
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If you had to increase the value of total US manufacturing output- if you were going to be paid based on a fraction of real US manufacturing output 10 years from now- how would you do it?
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/05/08/h...
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“How Can the US Manufacture More” Is a Reasonable Question That Deserves Reasonable Answers
Many regular Americans and policymakers say they want the US to manufacture more things domestically. But when they ask economists how to accomplish this, I find that our most common response is to…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/05/08/how-can-the-us-manufacture-more-is-a-reasonable-question-that-deserves-reasonable-answers/
6 months ago
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For anyone with datasets to share- I used to just post mine on OSF, but I'm getting about 10x the views on each dataset since I put them on Kaggle
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/05/01/k...
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Kaggle Wins for Data Sharing
I like to take existing datasets, clean them up, and share them in easier to use formats. When I started doing this back in 2022, my strategy was to host the datasets with the Open Science Foundati…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/05/01/kaggle-wins-for-data-sharing/
7 months ago
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I've never signed onto any petition or open letter of economists before, but this one seemed like an open and shut case:
anti-tariff.org
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Reject Tariffs, Restore Trade | Anti-Tariff Declaration
Join the movement to protect America's prosperity.
https://anti-tariff.org
7 months ago
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What stays strong in a world where the dollar is deliberately weakened?
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/04/17/t...
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The Best Investments of the 1970s
The tariffs still have me thinking about buying VIX calls and stock puts (especially when policy changes loom on certain dates like July 8th), and on the bigger question of finding the sort of inve…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/04/17/the-best-investments-of-the-1970s/
7 months ago
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A 90-day tariff pause.... then what?
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/04/10/t...
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The Wild Market of July 8th, 2025
April 2nd drove the point home- when someone in a position to know tells you something big is coming on a precise date, it is a smart time to act. As opposed to doing what I have done, which is thi…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/04/10/the-wild-market-of-july-8th-2025/
7 months ago
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Roger Lowenstein told the story of LTCM in his 2001 book “When Genius Failed“. I finally got around to reading this classic of the genre this year, and I’d say it is still well worth picking up. The story is well-told, and the lessons are timeless:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/04/06/w...
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When Genius Failed
Myron Scholes was on top of the world in 1997, having won the Nobel Prize in economics that year for his work in financial economics, work that he had applied in the real world in a wildly successf…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/04/06/when-genius-failed/
7 months ago
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Me back in October: "because of the ability of the President to raise tariffs unilaterally, I see Trump as the bigger risk when it comes to economic prosperity"
economistwritingeveryday.com/2024/10/31/t...
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Thoughts on the Candidates’ Economic Plans
I doubt anyone has been waiting for my take on the Trump and Harris economic plans to decide their vote. More than that, it is entirely reasonable to vote based on things other than their economic …
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2024/10/31/thoughts-on-the-candidates-economic-plans/
8 months ago
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These tariffs are 3 bad ideas in 1- bad economics, bad politics, bad national defense:
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Trump’s National Sales Tax
Tariffs are going up to levels last seen in the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs that helped kick off the Great Depression: Tariffs are taxes- roughly, a national sales tax with an exemption for domestica…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/04/03/trumps-national-sales-tax/
8 months ago
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Covid had killed off the Western Economic Association's international conferences, but it looks like they are bringing them back:
8 months ago
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The rising AEA acceptance rate... will the trend continue, or level off around 17%?
8 months ago
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HHS is cutting staff and reorganizing. Here are some of their datasets to download while you definitely still can:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/03/30/g...
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Get your HHS Data Ahead of Cuts
The US Department of Health and Human Services has announced it is cutting 10,000 of its 82,000 jobs and restructuring: As part of the restructuring, the department’s 10 regional offices will…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/03/30/get-your-hhs-data-ahead-of-cuts/
8 months ago
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economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/03/27/h...
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Home Health Certificate of Need
Certificate of Need laws require many types of health care providers to obtain the permission of a state board before they are allowed to open or expand in many US states. But there is a lot of var…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/03/27/home-health-certificate-of-need/
8 months ago
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Tax stuff I wish I'd known 10 years ago:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/03/20/a...
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Are You A Business, Man? The Surprising Benefits Of A Sole Prop and IRA
I never thought of myself as a businessman- until 2015 when the IRS told me I was, and that I therefore needed to pay them more money to cover the self-employment tax. Naturally I was confused and …
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/03/20/are-you-a-business-man-the-surprising-benefits-of-a-sole-prop-and-ira/
8 months ago
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Surprised the WSJ sees this as a minor story; to me it's an A1 headline. On top of the importance of the FTC itself, doesn't this make it more likely that the President tries to fire Federal Reserve governors? If so, I'd bet on higher inflation
8 months ago
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Looks like the Area Health Resources File has been taken down:
8 months ago
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Economically speaking, is this a good time for Europe to rearm? 2008-2013 would have been ideal, but they can afford more aggregate demand now; even better if this gives them a reason to reform the supply side:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/03/06/e...
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Europe Doesn’t Have to Be A Defenseless Museum
America has withdrawn aid from Ukraine. Contra the Vice-President, we could easily afford to reverse this, and I hope we will. I know we could afford it because even the much poorer Europeans can, …
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/03/06/europe-doesnt-have-to-be-a-defenseless-museum/
9 months ago
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I cleaned and reformatted the CDC SEER data into a neat panel of county demographics for all US counties for 54 years, and I'm sharing the data and code:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/02/27/c...
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County Demographic Data: A Clean Panel 1969-2023
Whenever researchers are conducting studies using state- or county-level data, we usually want some standard demographic variables to serve as controls; things like the total population, average ag…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/02/27/county-demographic-data-a-clean-panel-1969-2023/
9 months ago
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All the government websites that normally host the National Survey of Children's Health files have taken them down, so I put them back up:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/02/13/n...
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National Survey of Children’s Health Backup
The NSCH is the latest casualty of the new administration taking down major datasets from government websites. Between Archive.org and what I had downloaded for old projects, I was able to get all …
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/02/13/national-survey-of-childrens-health-backup/
9 months ago
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CDC page for the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System is down, but I put the dataset up here:
osf.io/6rxf4
10 months ago
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~2 sentence reviews of all the books I read in 2024, mostly econ / finance:
economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/01/02/2...
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2024 in Books
Quick thoughts on what I read in 2024- though note that none of these were published in 2024, since almost all the best stuff is older. First some econ books I reviewed here this year: Rockonomics-…
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2025/01/02/2024-in-books/
11 months ago
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