When backwardation of a given futures curve reverses after near-term volatility spikes calm down — and a TACO gets fully priced in — that curve is then said to be in Dontango.

Gift link 🎁 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

I have decided to launch a new stock exchange on the Moon.

Now I understand why Bitcoin tanked.

Banger.

Very impressed with www.factorstoday.com its so good I dont bother making a replacement

Elegantly written interview. Gift link 🎁 giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Kalshi chief Tarek Mansour: ‘We’re pricing the future’

Excellent article on Anthropic. The interactive charts are fantastic. Gift link giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Anthropic’s breakout moment: how Claude won business and shook markets

Typical Fico move.

Extraordinary.

Absolute banger.

Minority Report sequel in a Kalshi world

“But it’s The Halving”, oil on canvas

“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself in #$WMT ; but the simple pass on, and are punished.” — Proverbs 27:12 Not investment advice.

If oil can “go negative”, can bitcoin?

From MicroStrategy to Strategy to MicroTactic.

“Allowing margin trading could pave the way for Kalshi to allow big investors to bet on certain contracts without putting up the full amount of funds, something many hedge funds consider a prerequisite before they will invest substantial capital.” Gift article giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

#$SPY vs #$EMLC On a total return basis, almost 400 bps of outperformance from #$EMLC — without the crater, during which only you know whether you bought, bailed, etc, etc, etc. Not investment advice.

On God.

Has any stock ever lived truer to its name than #$ORCL ?

Two new 3x leveraged ETFs: CPXU and CPXD. When the market cheers on capex gluttony, you buy CPXU. When the market punishes capex gluttony, you buy CPXD. Not investment advice. Not even spiritual advice.

Excellent work.

Not a typo, not the Onion: it says “US LNG” (not Russian gas), and it’s indeed February 2026 (not February 2022).

#$UBS with a handsome beat, $3bn in buybacks, and ambitious CETI capital metrics:

#$MSTZ — T-Rex 2X Inverse #$MSTR Daily Target ETF — up ~420% since 11 August 2025, the day MicroStrategy eschewed its adjective and became simply Strategy.

Chart of #$MSTR since MicroStrategy changed its name to Strategy effective 11 August 2025. I’ve included #$IBIT for anyone who has been in (or followed) that “basis trade”.

Found two very different but interesting accounts to follow here: @triforcecap.bsky.social & @fullcarry.net

Banger.

Gartner — ticker #$IT — fell ~21% today and is down ~71% on a TTM basis.

“Analytics groups Gartner and S&P Global fell 21 per cent and 11 per cent, respectively, while Intuit and Equifax both declined more than 10 per cent. Moody’s fell 9 per cent and FactSet lost 11 per cent.” Cf #$IGV Gift link 🎁 giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

“So far this earnings season, just 71% of software companies in the S&P 500 have beaten revenue expectations, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with 85% for the overall tech sector.” #$IGV www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

When I say "run out of money," I mean that Oracle cannot afford to pay the debt on its data centers if OpenAI does not pay it. For OpenAI to do so, it will have to make more money than Salesforce in the space of a year. edzitronswheresyouredatghostio.outpost.pub/public/promo...

Cartoon from 1982 (!!).

Describe your Bluesky account in a single image:

Re-upping this.

Did you cancel your free trial?

tag yourself

Tillis (R-NC) stated: “I will oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed — including the upcoming Fed Chair vacancy — until this legal matter is fully resolved.” So any official announcement of any nominee — not just because it’s Warsh — should cause UST yields at the back end to rise.

I suspect that the market reaction to the Warsh news is not about Warsh per se, but rather about the fiscal dominance and legal prematurity of the nomination’s timing. Recall that Tillis took a hardline stance against advancing any Fed nominees whilst the DoJ investigation into Powell is active.

Excellent read.

Banger (I’ll cashtag #$EIDO as a referent.)

Excellent point — the contango speaks volumes (or, depending on your view, the contango isn’t listening).

“An FT analysis of government contracting data shows that…Palantir has received nearly $100mn in contracts from ICE since January 2025, while Deloitte…has been handed new work totalling more than $100mn from ICE and CBP over the same period.” Gift article 🎁 giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

But why is gold going up? It’s right here.

Life as a Roman in AD 54. Week three.

Seven metals here, 1 year (left) and 1 month (right). Normalised (factor 100).

The implication here on Boxing Day 2025 was that gold was a relative laggard.

This post from just over one month ago was, importantly, not investment advice.

A basket of metals — precious and other — seems irresistible at present. As momentum goes parabolic on gold and silver, there are numerous reasons for aluminium, copper, nickel, palladium, platinum, and zinc to participate as well. Does FOMO care if it’s USD-denominated? Not investment advice.