The Russian and American talking heads gave the Putin line in fluent Arabic last night. Through my excellent interpreter I said that Zelenskiy has to engage with 🇺🇸 advocating for 🇷🇺, and needs to be held back by 🇬🇧/🇪🇺. The only peace Putin and Witkoff are offering 🇺🇦 is defeat.

I offered a fairly grim bet with @benkentish.bsky.social last week: Russia wouldn't take a ceasefire offer, just in effect a surrender. Ben didn't take the bet, which was wise. VV Putin thinks he's winning: why would he stop?

I’m just now listening back to the podcast we recorded earlier today with Venetia Rainey and James Crisp on the @telegraph.co.uk Battle Lines podcast. The realities of modern war and the potential of conscription isn’t always what people think it is.

Yelena said in this interview that the British response to the Russian Navy seabed warfare ship was ‘hysterical’, and that we should pay attention to the Russian surrender terms sent to Ukraine. So I read those terms, and they caused hysterics.

The ‘Russian Wish List’ terms of surrender that the US put to Ukraine have the US mediating between Russia and NATO. This isn’t a thing, because the US is part of NATO. The Russian who wrote this, knows this. Steve Witkoff apparently missed this, unless someone has agreed to take the US out of NATO.

Yes, I accused Russia’s cable-seeking spy ship of piracy on the high seas (if it cuts a cable), and I might have written at least one cheque that the Vice-Chief of the Defence Staff couldn’t cash. Also, when my Russian oppo said Yantar conducts pure ocean research I couldn’t hold back giggles.

Hehe… und ihr dachtet, Rauchen an der Zapfsäule sei gefährlich? 😂

Last night I had a lot to say to @bbcmaryam.bsky.social about Chinese intelligence operations in the UK. The surrounding text suggested all sorts of other things the viewer could pay attention to if I was insufficiently engaging.

Just off the phone with a print journalist, talking about the UK Defence Secretary shouting at the Russian spy vessel Yantar in UK waters. He’s shouting because he doesn’t want you to hear today’s Parliamentary defence committee’s fairly damning report on UK capabilities.

Just went on Times at One with @dannythefink.bsky.social to talk about #Iran as a threat outside the region. As I was talking it was dawning on me that people who aren’t in the trade don’t really understand how much operational dirty work and influence the Iranians are up to overseas.

Palestine Action would be nobodies if they weren't proscribed. It's stupid policy to make police arrest loads of people on terrorism charges for peacefully supporting a gang of vandals. Police have better things to do. www.thenationalnews.com/news/uk/2025...

I have discovered the CEEFAUX Bsky feed and I may be some time.

11 years ago I had the honour of laying a wreath at Cenotaph. On 11 November we recall that remembrance is a duty.

My comment to Tanita Sims on @radionewshub.bsky.social today: the terms of the Gaza ceasefire haven't been worked out, and #Hamas has made clear that they aren't going to comply with the ones that have, so Israel will continue to destroy Hamas capability.

Russian lady was — honest to gawd — threatening me (well all of NATO) with red war if we give the Ukrainians ‘long range capabilities’ (Tomahawks and more Storm Shadow). Me: nice airbase you’ve got in Saratov; shame if somebody broke it (not in exactly those words). @bbcarabic.bsky.social

Most interesting: the US view that Hamas shooting Palestinians is a ceasefire violation. I said to @sandywarr.bsky.social this morning that for generations we have been ready to let Middle Eastern dictators do as they please with people from their own ethnic groups.

Hamas Telegram channels are being clear: this is a rebuilding phase, and Hamas aren’t letting go of their control over Gaza. This explains their shooting dissidents (and posting the videos), and it explains the delays in releasing dead hostages.

Points this AM from my chat with @sandywarr.bsky.social on @lbcnews.bsky.social @lbc.co.uk: Rafah crossing isn’t for aid, it’s for moving people betw Gaza and Egypt. 560T/day of aid are moving into Gaza, which is not enough for 2.4M people. US view that Hamas killing Palestinians violates ceasefire

Dear everyone who has posted anything this morning not directly related to the hostage/prisoner exchange at the Gaza border: please forgive me for all the things I thought about you.

Bibi Netanyahu is going to come back from Sharm where a complete realignment of the region is announced, to a government visit from Indonesia, a whole new world, and hostage family hostility gone. They’ve got to be printing the election posters now.

Just off a call with Carole Walker on Times Radio. I have to find a better way of saying Hamas are 'methodologically Maoist', but sure as shootin' they are going to ratchet back to a rebuilding phase. They're not giving up, and threats to kill leadership aren't bothering them.

My rant on @lbc.co.uk this morning: @ianpayne.bsky.social asked what questions were asked by the UK PM chairing Cobra yesterday. The big Q was whether this was the first of a planned series of synagogue attacks. The second: why is the Home Sec arresting protesters and failing to protect British 🧵

Before Iraq and Afghanistan, one of the things that senior American officers told their Canadian and British colleagues often, was that the US armed forces must never be turned into a gendarmerie (which they considered us to be at the time). This will be their significant concern right now.

The more it is a physical risk to life and limb to be in public life, the more sensible people will stay away. Being politically active, being a public figure, should not in itself mean inviting the assassin’s bullet.

Whatever was behind the Russian drones entering Poland via Belarus (recce? probe? error?), we're seeing some pretty smart responses from, so far, Warsaw, NATO (& some individual allies), & Minsk. A quick 🧵 1/7

Russia has forced NATO to think about Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty at just the moment when Hamas is thinking about whether to relocate more of their leadership to Turkey, protected from Israeli precision attack by…Article V. (All of Turkey counts as Europe, per Article VI.)

Why is Ali Khamenei alive & 🇮🇷 Supreme Leader? AK is not so popular nor so effective that he couldn’t be quickly replaced. He’s 86, succession plans are mature, & a new SL could steady the regime. Had there been a good case to add him to Friday’s 🎯 list, his replacement would already be in post.

Key points from my interview on BBC Persian tonight: 1. Israeli attacks will focus on targets in/near #Tehran, and 2. while Netanyahu wants to see the Iranian government done down, only the people of #Iran could possibly make that happen.

Earlier today I went on @bloombergtv.bsky.social with Francine Lacqua to talk about Israel's ongoing operations against Iran. Events haven't proven me wrong yet, but I'm ready.

My main point on the @bbcarabic.bsky.social news with Wafa Zaiane: the Mossad is publishing videos of their operation in order to demonstrate to Iranians that the regime and the country are utterly penetrated. Iran clamping down on the Internet is an attempt to stop it, and it's not going to work.

If you do a close read not only of the Bible but the archeology, it starts to look like the Israelites, & all but a couple of Judean kings, worshipped a goddess for pretty much the whole First Temple era. The implications of this are... far ranging-- & her name might not be what we've believed.

🧵 As the US works to bridge the final gaps between Hamas and Israel in pursuit of a new ceasefire agreement, @nusbacher.bsky.social offers her insights into the previous ceasefire arrangements as she assess the UK-Israel relations from the British perspective.

Was this weekend shaping up to be relaxing? We'll fix that: @bicom.bsky.social Daniel Levy gets me going on the slide in UK - Israel relations. www.bicom.org.uk/podcasts/epi...

At the very minimum, all AI made content should be legally required to be prominently labeled as made by AI, visible both to human eyes and by computers (to make it possible to filter out). Publishing AI-generated content that isn't marked as AI is low-key fraud.

NEW The use of artificial intelligence in courts: a warning A judge deployed an onerous sanction when lawyers seemed to use fake, AI-generated case law By me, at @prospectmagazine.co.uk www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/law/th...

Last night of teaching and testing fencing students last night; next week it'll be a joy to be a student again! ⚔️

Some day the Hebrew School teacher leaves aside the lesson on Mishna and gives a briefing on why Houthis are dropping ballistic missiles on Ben Gurion airport. Today this was me. It involved starting way back and explaining many things that kids don't learn in school.

Fuelled largely by green tea, I spent my Friday talking, after a late night’s writing about the recent ransomware blitz on UK retailers.

Today I learned that @alexvont.bsky.social and I are a matched pair because Alex has blue hair and I have red hair.

It’s such a pleasure to talk to @jonathanray.bsky.social on @lbc.co.uk @lbcnews.bsky.social: he’s very good at making me think on my feet. Three key points: 1. The Israelis warned the target neighbourhood in advance of the attack, including satellite photos of the target, they tapped with a

Here's this month's audio from our Fantastic Fiction at KGB reading series, with guests Andrea Hairston & Ursula Whitcher. @datlow.bsky.social @yarntheory.bsky.social @andreahairston.bsky.social www.kgbfantasticfiction.org/2025/04/27/a...

As my Roman Catholic friends reflect on the life and work of Papa Bergoglio, and as their Church embarks on the process of choosing his successor, I wish you all the comfort in the World.

This is part of the US foreign policy realignment to Great Power spheres of influence. China will be getting something in return. Also, countdown to Marco Rubio’s resignation.

Two key notes about the US State Department restructure: 1. It will effectively concede dominant influence in sub-Saharan Africa to China, and 2. It further removes influence over foreign policy from SecState and pulls it into the 'envoys' who work directly to the White House.

As someone with pretentions of being an essayist, I hope the essay is not dead. A good essay is a test - assay - not of what you know, but of what you think. It should show how well you understand a topic or subject. And a good essay should not contain stale phrases like "well and truly".

A happy and proper Pesach to everyone in the world who enjoys freedom and who longs for freedom four ourselves and for all humankind!

Sweden, Denmark Norway and Finland! Scandi channels represent!

I just wish to make perfectly clear that when I use the thread emoji 🧵on social media it's not an empty gesture. I really do have that spool of thread.

I snorted tea out my nostrils.

Michael Crichton’s career as a novelist was based on writing lectures and wrapping them in fiction, like feeding a dog a tablet in a wad of peanut butter. My favourite was Airframe because it’s about systems thinking. He was enormously successful in getting people to read his lectures, and pay 🧵