Handing the Iranians a tactical victory and putting American service people where the Iranians can kill them: medals for the IRGC. I'd call this an unforced error, but I can't believe CENTCOM thought this op was a good idea.

Let me say for clarity's sake: I'm pleased beyond measure that the American aviators were rescued; but this was a tremendous stroke of luck (good preparation and planning), and it coykd have been a tragedy.

Someone just wrote off an Apache crew by flying it into Iranian air defence cover. The crew was priceless. The Apache was pricey. The munition that took it down was dirt cheap by comparison. Retaliation won't erase this waste of blood, never mind the asset.

this probably doesn’t even count as controversial but I think it’s hilarious that George Lucas made a movie in the late 70s from the principles of “whee hee hee woo hoo hoo spaceship” and consequently spent the rest of his life as the author of The King James Bible

Someone wants you to sign up to be an Iranian spy. It might even be the Iranians! Link in comments

Our Chernobyl documentary is apparently on Discovery! Outside the UK is it on your Discovery schedule?

The Suez documentary on (UK) Channel 4 is very sharp, and I'm proud to have worked on it with Voltage TV and @channel4.bsky.social ! It's streaming on the @channel4tv.bsky.social website, which is where I caught it. I'm fairly certain that I wasn't swearing in this screenshot.

Never predicting!

The level of support we had, shooting at the brilliant Pacific War Museum here in Fredericksburg was astonishing, especially Nicole Bagley sharing the research they'd commissioned into this little submarine! She and Haley helped me, Olivia and Alex SO MUCH on this project for @natgeotv.bsky.social

Will the Chinese government can put as much pressure on Iran today as they could two weeks ago. You know who won't be chilled about a resumption of rocketing? KSA, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait, that's who.

Not predicting! Never predicting! But here's the scenario I offered Matthew Wright on @lbc.co.uk just now: POTUS extends the cease-fire, says that Qalibaf and Aragchi are nobody, and now General Vahidi is in charge, is listening to him and Vahidi can get the Strait opened. #irgc #iran

Me on Friday: wow, the sanctions are back on! It wasn't keeping prices down anyway. The Ukrainians' engagement with the White House is rewarded! The trade is all going into the shadows and settled in RMB! Me today: I guess Russia made a phone call.

Someone is going to say that the disconnect between Qalibaf/Aragchi and the #IRGC is a sign of cracks in the #Iran regime. It isn't. It's a sign that Qalibaf and Aragchi aren't the last word. They can now go back to Islamabad and say they need the USA to be more conciliatory.

The people in this trailer (like @rory-stewart.bsky.social and @alexvont.bsky.social) are really first-rate, so I’m really pleased that they’ll be drawing people in to watch this documentary on Monday and Tuesday nights 9pm on @channel4.bsky.social @channel4docs.bsky.social @voltagetv.bsky.social

If I were to pull out a couple of key words from discussing likely #American land component operations in #Iran with @darrylmorris.bsky.social on Times Radio they'd be RAID and DENY. Raiding Iranian locations to rob them of launching and mining capabilities, and denying operating locations to them.

You can't tell how cold it is on this beach in March!

The war of the refineries

I'm not a British government spokeswoman,but if a presenter asks me to thunder that Iran isn't the world’s war crimes police force, and shooting missiles at Diego Garcia isn't punishing Britain's imagined sins, I'm ready to thunder.

The first episode in the UK is about the Supermarine Spitfire, a platform about which I was uncharacteristically silent. I think I had plenty to say in all the other episodes, though!

A clear majority (eyeball: 80-90%?) of tankers present in and around Hormuz strait are sanctioned ones. Probably not news to insiders, like @TankerTrackers who got me the sanctions-list, but it was to me.

Looking towards the firming-up of the converging US-#Israel narrative: the strategic aim has been to degrade Iranian offensive capability. Any continuing dominance of the #Iran regime is now framed as the fault of Iran's citizens who didn't try hard enough or want freedom enough.

Zelenskiy said the UK pledged 5000 people to deploy to Ukraine after a ceasefire. How could we commit that? Hint: VV Putin.

As Gerry Ford moves into theatre to join the Abe Lincoln, If you were commander CENTCOM, what Iranian targets would you hit? Spoiler: my choice is to send the entire IRGC Navy to Davy Jones. Thomas Harding in The National (UAE) www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/20...

Won’t someone make the Iranian theocracy go away? (A trailer from my substack)

A trailer of some of my comments from last night, from a substack video on the sort-of un-proscription of Palestine Action

Happy Valentine

The proscription of Palestine Action as a terrorist group is unlawful but the group is still proscribed. Starmer hasn’t got the political capital to make rational adjustments to terrorism legislation. My money quote: go damage Egyptian Air Force planes and see what that gets you.

For the past 18 months or so I’ve been talking about a gap between Israeli security requirements and US action in the Middle East. I think it’s getting harder for Netanyahu to leap back and forth across this gap. This is a trailer for a freebie video on my substack.

I've written this, and I want to make sure I haven't plagiarised it. It is definitely my conclusion from available open source, and I think it's common knowledge, but I wouldn't like to discover that someone whom I should acknowledge has published this. Thoughts?

I hope it doesn’t sound judgmental when I say that the US isn’t going to overthrow the Iranian government using a carrier battle group. If there were a regime change button they might push it, but America’s playing for a nuclear deal which they’ll spin as bringing ‘peace’ to the region.

This is a short clip with one reason why the UK hasn't proscribed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Apologies for the AI's difficulty with the word 'proscribe'. open.substack.com/pub/nusbacher

The Lion and the unicorn unleashed on the dragon. A reset with China, a head-of-government visit, a reduction in China's tax on British whisky, and the promise of visa-free travel for Brits in China. Only Starmer could go to China, I guess.

Today is Holocaust Memorial Day, when we commemorate the six million Jewish people murdered during the Holocaust, and the victims of subsequent genocides. For last year's Holocaust Memorial Day, we shared a piece by our History student, Lucy Pollock, whose family were killed in the Holocaust.

Today, on Holocaust Memorial Day, we remember the millions of lives lost and reaffirm our commitment to stand against hatred and prejudice. #HolocaustMemorialDay #HMD2026

Last days to apply for the International Women's Day fencing event in Oviedo, Asturias!

That was unclear. The punitive tariffs aren't trade sanctions; they're sales taxes for Americans. They make imports less competitive, but if required the UK and the EU can reply with countervailing tariffs that make US products less competitive overseas. In an election year!

‘Right now, somebody in the FCDO is deciding which knighthood to offer Donald Trump’. - Me Key point from my interview about #greenland on @bbcarabic.bsky.social today: If the US wants to tariff up US prices in advance of their Nov congressional elections, Europe will consider retaliation.

I had some good challenge this AM from @steffanpowell.bsky.social on @bbc5live.bsky.social just now when I said that Tony Blair has a track record in the Middle East of achieving the square root of Fanny Adams. Sum: with the support of the Foreign Service and the Civil Service Blair could achieve.

I've been staying in this room every time I've been to the castle for three years. I love the battlements outside the window, but I particularly love the heraldic weathercock.

It's dark. It's cold. It's raining. Of course I'm out in Windsor Castle talking to my phone camera!

I’ve just spent some of my evening creating a brief video to add to the new short-short General Offensive! General Uprising! podcast on my Substack. This is all fairly rough-n-ready, and when I saw a bit of glare off my big screen I just slung Bill the Cat up there to block it. Bill by Kes Smith.

I went on a bit longer this time: what do you think? Also, what do you think my next short video should be about?

I'm starting to record some short current affairs videos, mostly looking at strategy, and mostly trying to keep it fairly large scale. First one off the blocks: Greenland.

With you on @lbc from 10pm - Trump discussing how to acquire Greenland, says White House with @rufusgifford.bsky.social & @nusbacher.bsky.social - Drink drive limit set to be cut in road safety - Pensioners could lose ticket to ride Tube for free Plus @winmc01.bsky.social on Jan 6th anniversary

Venezuela was a proof of concept: you can put a leader in the bag and put him on ice while you hand his successor a list of demands. Could work in Greenland, right? Could also be the beginning of Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign against … what was that guy’s name again? Vance! That was the guy.

I was going to put text on this photo to make a meme. I realised that if you don't recognise the still, it would take too much text to explain the joke. If you do recognise the still, you don't need text.

If the US government is going to ‘run’ #Venezuela for the foreseeable future, it’s going to be devoting a lot of civil affairs capability and nation-building resource to the task. After dropping the post-conflict reconstruction ball in Iraq, it’s going to be quite an opportunity.

The US signalled that it is willing to be cavalier about use of force in its sphere of influence; unhappy to see other acknowledged major powers (China and Russia) coming in without permission. This also signals to China and Russia that they can do likewise in their spheres.