If I were to pull out a couple of key words from discussing likely #American land component operations in #Iran with @darrylmorris.bsky.social on Times Radio they'd be RAID and DENY. Raiding Iranian locations to rob them of launching and mining capabilities, and denying operating locations to them.

You can't tell how cold it is on this beach in March!

The war of the refineries

I'm not a British government spokeswoman,but if a presenter asks me to thunder that Iran isn't the world’s war crimes police force, and shooting missiles at Diego Garcia isn't punishing Britain's imagined sins, I'm ready to thunder.

The first episode in the UK is about the Supermarine Spitfire, a platform about which I was uncharacteristically silent. I think I had plenty to say in all the other episodes, though!

A clear majority (eyeball: 80-90%?) of tankers present in and around Hormuz strait are sanctioned ones. Probably not news to insiders, like @TankerTrackers who got me the sanctions-list, but it was to me.

Looking towards the firming-up of the converging US-#Israel narrative: the strategic aim has been to degrade Iranian offensive capability. Any continuing dominance of the #Iran regime is now framed as the fault of Iran's citizens who didn't try hard enough or want freedom enough.

Zelenskiy said the UK pledged 5000 people to deploy to Ukraine after a ceasefire. How could we commit that? Hint: VV Putin.

As Gerry Ford moves into theatre to join the Abe Lincoln, If you were commander CENTCOM, what Iranian targets would you hit? Spoiler: my choice is to send the entire IRGC Navy to Davy Jones. Thomas Harding in The National (UAE) www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/20...

Won’t someone make the Iranian theocracy go away? (A trailer from my substack)

A trailer of some of my comments from last night, from a substack video on the sort-of un-proscription of Palestine Action

Happy Valentine

The proscription of Palestine Action as a terrorist group is unlawful but the group is still proscribed. Starmer hasn’t got the political capital to make rational adjustments to terrorism legislation. My money quote: go damage Egyptian Air Force planes and see what that gets you.

For the past 18 months or so I’ve been talking about a gap between Israeli security requirements and US action in the Middle East. I think it’s getting harder for Netanyahu to leap back and forth across this gap. This is a trailer for a freebie video on my substack.

I've written this, and I want to make sure I haven't plagiarised it. It is definitely my conclusion from available open source, and I think it's common knowledge, but I wouldn't like to discover that someone whom I should acknowledge has published this. Thoughts?

I hope it doesn’t sound judgmental when I say that the US isn’t going to overthrow the Iranian government using a carrier battle group. If there were a regime change button they might push it, but America’s playing for a nuclear deal which they’ll spin as bringing ‘peace’ to the region.

This is a short clip with one reason why the UK hasn't proscribed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Apologies for the AI's difficulty with the word 'proscribe'. open.substack.com/pub/nusbacher

The Lion and the unicorn unleashed on the dragon. A reset with China, a head-of-government visit, a reduction in China's tax on British whisky, and the promise of visa-free travel for Brits in China. Only Starmer could go to China, I guess.

Today is Holocaust Memorial Day, when we commemorate the six million Jewish people murdered during the Holocaust, and the victims of subsequent genocides. For last year's Holocaust Memorial Day, we shared a piece by our History student, Lucy Pollock, whose family were killed in the Holocaust.

Today, on Holocaust Memorial Day, we remember the millions of lives lost and reaffirm our commitment to stand against hatred and prejudice. #HolocaustMemorialDay #HMD2026

Last days to apply for the International Women's Day fencing event in Oviedo, Asturias!

That was unclear. The punitive tariffs aren't trade sanctions; they're sales taxes for Americans. They make imports less competitive, but if required the UK and the EU can reply with countervailing tariffs that make US products less competitive overseas. In an election year!

‘Right now, somebody in the FCDO is deciding which knighthood to offer Donald Trump’. - Me Key point from my interview about #greenland on @bbcarabic.bsky.social today: If the US wants to tariff up US prices in advance of their Nov congressional elections, Europe will consider retaliation.

I had some good challenge this AM from @steffanpowell.bsky.social on @bbc5live.bsky.social just now when I said that Tony Blair has a track record in the Middle East of achieving the square root of Fanny Adams. Sum: with the support of the Foreign Service and the Civil Service Blair could achieve.

I've been staying in this room every time I've been to the castle for three years. I love the battlements outside the window, but I particularly love the heraldic weathercock.

It's dark. It's cold. It's raining. Of course I'm out in Windsor Castle talking to my phone camera!

I’ve just spent some of my evening creating a brief video to add to the new short-short General Offensive! General Uprising! podcast on my Substack. This is all fairly rough-n-ready, and when I saw a bit of glare off my big screen I just slung Bill the Cat up there to block it. Bill by Kes Smith.

I went on a bit longer this time: what do you think? Also, what do you think my next short video should be about?

I'm starting to record some short current affairs videos, mostly looking at strategy, and mostly trying to keep it fairly large scale. First one off the blocks: Greenland.

With you on @lbc from 10pm - Trump discussing how to acquire Greenland, says White House with @rufusgifford.bsky.social & @nusbacher.bsky.social - Drink drive limit set to be cut in road safety - Pensioners could lose ticket to ride Tube for free Plus @winmc01.bsky.social on Jan 6th anniversary

Venezuela was a proof of concept: you can put a leader in the bag and put him on ice while you hand his successor a list of demands. Could work in Greenland, right? Could also be the beginning of Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign against … what was that guy’s name again? Vance! That was the guy.

I was going to put text on this photo to make a meme. I realised that if you don't recognise the still, it would take too much text to explain the joke. If you do recognise the still, you don't need text.

If the US government is going to ‘run’ #Venezuela for the foreseeable future, it’s going to be devoting a lot of civil affairs capability and nation-building resource to the task. After dropping the post-conflict reconstruction ball in Iraq, it’s going to be quite an opportunity.

The US signalled that it is willing to be cavalier about use of force in its sphere of influence; unhappy to see other acknowledged major powers (China and Russia) coming in without permission. This also signals to China and Russia that they can do likewise in their spheres.

Suppression of enemy air defence is the first mission of every air force. That was fairly spectacular in Venezuela this morning, and there are already indications of airmobile operations following. What is the US fighting for? It's the new great power spheres of influence.

Best wishes for 2026, people. Look after yourselves, pick your battles, achieve decisive results, and be prepared to cut your losses.

One more year without the Tom Bombadil Christmas Special I’ve been longing for.

Today I was Debbie Downer: Russia-Ukraine will not be over by Christmas. Putting a multinational force into Ukraine to enforce an unwelcome agreement on the Ukrainians would not end well. Sir Trevor on Times Radio pressed for hope: I think Putin could…retire. Men of his age retire all the time.

Today Ahmed al-Ahmad sanctified himself, his family, Islam and Australia with his courage and presence of mind. He looked death in his face. It appears that in the process he took a round. God bless him and heal him in body and spirit.

Demonising Jews, including Israelis, has consequences. Today is not the day to say that criticism of Israeli government policy isn't anti-Semitic; the language of abomination isn't criticism. Today is not the day to score points off Australian govt policy. Ask me tomorrow.

Jews being killed in Australia has me in a fury this morning as I walk through London. I'll think of something to say when I've calmed down a little.

Today’s German vocabulary word is Leidenschaft. Fun fact: it appears to have been coined in the 17th C by poet Philipp von Zesen so that he would have a German word for passion.

Yes, I can discuss Atlantic Bastion in 400 words. Yes, I weep blood to leave stuff out. www.lbc.co.uk/article/russ...

I was writing a piece today that considers the North Atlantic, and the new US National Security Strategy is going to require the US either to have some fairly solid alliances with European states with navies … or concede the North Atlantic to Russia.

The Russian and American talking heads gave the Putin line in fluent Arabic last night. Through my excellent interpreter I said that Zelenskiy has to engage with 🇺🇸 advocating for 🇷🇺, and needs to be held back by 🇬🇧/🇪🇺. The only peace Putin and Witkoff are offering 🇺🇦 is defeat.

I offered a fairly grim bet with @benkentish.bsky.social last week: Russia wouldn't take a ceasefire offer, just in effect a surrender. Ben didn't take the bet, which was wise. VV Putin thinks he's winning: why would he stop?

I’m just now listening back to the podcast we recorded earlier today with Venetia Rainey and James Crisp on the @telegraph.co.uk Battle Lines podcast. The realities of modern war and the potential of conscription isn’t always what people think it is.

Yelena said in this interview that the British response to the Russian Navy seabed warfare ship was ‘hysterical’, and that we should pay attention to the Russian surrender terms sent to Ukraine. So I read those terms, and they caused hysterics.

The ‘Russian Wish List’ terms of surrender that the US put to Ukraine have the US mediating between Russia and NATO. This isn’t a thing, because the US is part of NATO. The Russian who wrote this, knows this. Steve Witkoff apparently missed this, unless someone has agreed to take the US out of NATO.