Have some absolutely terrible news for the 1926 group of professors.

Greatest Hits: 1861-1865

Hey look, a Dunning-Kruger explainer in The Onion

Primarily, this is great news. Secondarily, I’ve been perpetually low-key worried about a pair of quartz mines in NC ever since reading the last book, so I’m now mentally preparing to learn that there’s a secret strait somewhere that’s somehow 100x more critical than Hormuz.

Nice story and some impressive kids.

semis, huh?

Considering applying for Canadian citizenship based on 1) my wife’s great-grandparents, and 2) my number of mufo Canadian friends on Bluesky.

Now JP needs to call a press conference this afternoon to say thanks, and announce that he’ll be staying on as a governor anyway.

I really do think you can chalk up a lot of the recent market reaction to the fact that collective attention spans are now pathetically short.

The overwhelmingly preferred candidate of the oil industry has now advocated for $50/bbl oil (shale drilling unprofitable) while, just 4 months later, also expressed comfort with $200/bbl oil if necessary (massive demand destruction). Elite levels of voting against your own economic interest.

Keynesian beauty contest where the other participants are all different industry experts who each think that all of these faces look pretty damn ugly, tbh

One hell of a campaign slogan here

Based on the way Dallas Fed structured this question, 59.6% of respondents expect traffic to return to normal by no later than August. 85.9% by no later than November.

1. Chewbacca is not a bear. 2. Seems applicable: “short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.”

Adjusted for inflation this would be equivalent to Pete Rose betting about $17 on a Reds game.

Trimmed mean did *not* give a good read on the 2021 inflation. Pandemic-era shocks flipped the skew positive, and the trimmed mean lagged badly behind core and headline inflation. The authors see possible echoes of that right now.

Eisen is about a week away from just marching over to Fox and forcibly seizing Bartiromo’s chair.

If your primary long-term concern has been CB independence, it is ironic that the Iran excursion & energy market disruption has given the Fed every excuse to sit tight in the face of administration pressure. Futures now pricing in less than a 20% chance of a single cut by Sep. Was 90%+ in late Feb.

Don’t let them tell you we aren’t capable of converting vacant office space to residential.

The golden age of text-based microblogging has finally arrived, Bluesky

Risk of buy the standoff sell the peace is starting to inch higher. It’s one thing to assume everyone will focus on the flow once the oil starts to move and therefore look through all this. Another to actually look around once it’s flowing and assess the damage already incurred. Tick tock.

hes telling you right here he is not going to bomb them again regardless of his sabre rattling he will extend the ceasefire on some made up progress when in fact we will be in the same place weve been for the last 3 weeks

With forecasts, it’s: give them a number or give them a date, but never give them both. With war negotiations, it’s: give them a demand or give them a date, but sometimes give them neither and just leave everything vaguely open-ended.

I’ll have the el pastor.

So based on current reporting, the VP is either heading out A) tomorrow morning, B) possibly later this week, C) possibly at an unspecified time TBD, or D) possibly not at all. A ridiculous yet market-moving multiple choice problem.

Warsh hearing reminding me that’s it’s been 9.5 years since “no puppet, no puppet, you're the puppet.”

Need to settle this with an old fashioned CEO sword fight.

Went to a charity’s large dinner event that featured several non-professional speakers. One oddity of the LLM era is that everyone has a speechwriter now. It was vaguely obvious which speeches were heavily AI-dependent. Those speakers sounded better for it, but was also an uncanny valley for speech.

Welcome, John Apple.

Watch this video and imagine it happening at your home. You can tell what kind of person you are based on whether your initial reaction is more 1) fear of injuries and property damage, or 2) fear of unexpected house guests literally dropping in.

Lots of activities scheduled today - shuffleboard, a water slide, manning the 16-inch/50 cal turrets, and pickleball.

Death, taxes, and Sunday futures opening down 1% regardless of whatever seemed to be the case 48 hours prior.

The strait is closed and no oil is moving. But the pent-up demand / backlog is at record highs and growing rapidly, so bullish.

Posted only 2.5 hours before futures open. Reaching closer towards that hot stove.

Always fun when BAT delivers a holy-shit listing.

And a mere two elections later, fire up the Fleetwood Mac

Worth the quick read even if you’ve had CPR training, but especially if you have not.

They’re at it again

One of the best things about this site is the day-to-day ability to go about my life blissfully unaware of all the types of accounts replying to and quote-posting the Bluesky DDOS post calling them liars and blaming it all on claude.

If it keeps this up everyone will eventually appear on the Quiet Posters feed.

Hold physical. With a 115 gallon tank, this fuel truck could pay for itself under the right circumstances.

This is the weirdest shit I have seen in the past week. To put that into perspective we had Donald Jesus Trump in the past week. and yes the actual CBOE posted this on the other site

So Allbirds was up 582% today, and in terms of market cap change, its $126m increase is equivalent to Nvidia gaining $0.005 per share (half a penny), or 0.0026%. For perspective. #$BIRD #$NVDA

Now what today really needs is the announcement of an Allbirds secondary offering before the close. #$BIRD

Now up 850% today. The below was not intended as a prediction, to be clear.

Allbirds is up 300% this morning, and now only needs to climb another 5,500% to reach its IPO day closing price of $577/share. 2021 was wild. #$BIRD

for sale: data center, never used

Citi is trading at its highest since November 2008. When younger colleagues ask what the GFC was like, I find the 20-year chart of #$C provides a concise illustration.