Aside from the salient substantive differences in the situations, today’s action did not include blaring an incredible rock playlist for 3-days outside the embassy of the Holy See. Which, as a kid at the time, was absolutely the most notable aspect of that operation.

When the morning headlines abruptly shift from WTAF to No Shit Sherlock.

Starting an activist HF to push for a spin out of the struggling EV business, unlocking the value of a standalone vibes pure play.

from Until Saturday by @jasonkirk.fyi

been there

Next season on Fansville, the fans get State’s HC fired, only to learn his buyout is a lifetime supply of Dr. Pepper.

Snippet from Michael Cembalest's (JPM) latest: "Tech capital spending in 2025 was roughly equal to the Manhattan Project, farm electrification, the Moon Landing, the Interstate Highway system and several FDR-era public works projects combined, measured as a share of GDP"

Aside from the primary US-China dynamics, the letter left me with two general thoughts about the state of US tech: 1. The basic concept of GARP does not currently exist w/in the industry. 2. This collective short-term and facile rationale is a serious long-term problem.

This is how I learned I’m a better fit for finance culture and tech culture. You only succeed in tech culture by fully embracing the Current Thing and being all-in on it: danwang.co/2025-letter/

They looked very good but a spring game semi-final is a bit much.

Even 2011 had interesting aspects. ORCL was the 3rd largest position in the index - it had recovered all of the late-summer / debt-ceiling selloff and then promptly tanked nearly 20% in December. Ex-ORCL the index would have been positive that month.

Heading into the last day of the year, returns since the post-Liberation Day low in April: Large Cap (R1K): +39.3% Small Cap (R2K): +43.1% Foreign Developed: +36.9% Foreign Emerging: +45.9% US Bond Agg: +5.6% Long UST (TLT): +2.8% USD (DXY): -4.6% Crude (WTI): -2.7% Gold: +45.0% Bitcoin: +14.6%

CV theme to year-end coverage.

I wish I wanted anything in the world as much as the NYT wants me to Switch to All Access Family or to Add the Sunday Times in Print to my Subscription or to Give a Gift Subscription.

Alternative SOTP valuation: $55 Autos $40 Energy $330 Vibes

From a portfolio management standpoint, the rush to hedge against USD earlier this year, as opposed to even a slowdown in inflows let alone actual outflows, was one of the most interesting dynamics/takeaways of the year.

Along the lines of a mercy rule in youth sports, if the YTD SPX return through 12/24 is in double digits, positive or negative, the market should be closed the entire last week of the year and re-open on 1/2.

For as dominant as mega cap tech has been, small caps are now leading dating back to the 4th of July of last year.

Hard to get too surprised at anything theses days, but the advent of meme commodities is remarkable. Would have guessed FCOJ a more likely candidate, especially around Christmas, than a precious metal.

Getting a rate cut *during* a 4%+ GDP quarter is a good marker of an unusual macro environment.

Not a combo you see every day: - Retail stock - Growing EPS at 10%+ - Trading at 40x fwd EPS - In bear market territory

Bloomberg’s Digital Politics Editor: “This warrior dividend, this check for $1,776, coming around holiday time for service members, really shows that they are paying attention to the poll numbers and seeing what they can do.” I will never understand the default journalistic framing of this era.

The number of ranchers and the number of consumers in the US are about equal, so you could see how the political calculus is tricky.

If they had only announced a Moon Taxi initiative they could have gotten 5x this valuation.

If a company is worried about maintaining margins amid persistent inflation and potential tariff disruptions, while also being told that significant AI-driven productivity gains are right around the corner, I’m not sure another 50 bps moves the needle on hiring decisions.

Even if the private sector employment downturn has bottomed, there remains an unanswered question regarding how/why further rate cuts in this specific environment would spark accelerated hiring from here.

Increased potential for trades to go sideways in hilarious ways, at least.

Because it’s not?

Just some minor news two days after the earnings release and one day after filing the 10-Q.

This statement coming from Rivian is very interesting. But if this statement eventually comes from Customer A, B, C, or D, though, it will really be a Happy Learned to Putt moment.

The fact that DIS is positive on the day, and not falling on the risk it’s apparently taking with its IP, likely means the ORCL factor hasn’t yet spread wide enough to dent the broader narrative. Emphasis on yet.

Steamboat Willie and the Boiler Explosion - A Tragedy

“Please do not fire a missile at the Nobel Peace Prize winner” is an actual (and extremely necessary) request that just happened.

FOMC personnel changes aside, an argument can be made that inflation fears really should be driving rates higher, given after today they’ll have already cut by 75 over the last 12 weeks while core has been above target for going on 5 years now. But that’s certainly not been the catalyst thus far.

It’s the This is Fine meme, except without any flames or smoke, and the dog is just quietly enjoying his coffee at a standard if unremarkable diner. Highlights from the Goldman financial services conference.

Sentiment feels more certain than the < 90% probability still reflected in futures.

Yeah, I don’t know about this.

From export taxes to an “approval process”. Just need some corrupt angle to the shipping stage to hit a supply chain trifecta. “Buyers would probably… go through an approval process… submitting requests to purchase the chips & explaining why domestic providers were unable to meet their needs.”

Now Netflix subscribers will get a free television *and* a role as a background extra in the HBO prestige drama of their choosing.

Hey, finally happened upon something that would justify a diagnosis of “derangement”.

This piece contains a point about AMZN I see variations of repeated frequently. In this instance it’s from the bear perspective, but just as often, it’s the same rationale but for the bull case. Neither make any sense…

Does it help or hurt one’s resume for the Capital Allocator Hall of Fame if you announce a decision to incinerate slightly less money on a project you have long championed, and the market reaction is to increase the value of your company by $65 billion?

Still getting accustomed to a world in which a single headline that moves a stock by just 2% equals a $75 billion hit to a company’s market value.

Combine those two and you get an interesting attribution for the recent shift in sentiment towards Google/Broadcom via multiple expansion.

Contrast those multiple changes with the change in forward EPS estimates over the same period: AVGO: 35% GOOGL: 21% NVDA: 49% MSFT: 19%

Multiple expansion since the early April low: AVGO: 83% GOOGL: 80% NVDA: 25% MSFT: 16%

Trailing 12 month total returns: Russell 1000 Value: +6.8% Russell 2000 Value: +2.5% 12-month Treasury Bill: +4.3% Bitcoin: -12.5%

Could never have imagined a scenario in which I’d have “Ole Miss National Championship” on my wish list, but guessing that’s a common phenomenon among CFB fans today.

In the prepared remarks 4 weeks ago: “In the Committee’s discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December.” And now a chief subject of that statement simply attributes that incongruity to a rhetorical point? That could somehow affect others’ votes?

News of potential viable competition while wearing a “We are not Enron” tee shirt is a powerful combo, apparently.