O fato de Conclave ter mais atores mexicanos do que Emília Perez me pegou um pouco

Modern supply chains don't look like trade theory 101! They involve constant border crossings, each now hit by tariffs. Tariffs raise prices, but the more important thing they do is disrupt supply relationships. 1/

Our "Discrimination in the Formation of Academic Networks: A Field Experiment on #EconTwitter" with Pedro Sant'Anna and @brunoferman.bsky.social is now forthcoming in the 😀😀 American Economic Review Insights (@AEAjournals ) 😀😀 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

your daily reminder that people don’t understand conditional iid

such a cool post statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/12/10/b...

1/ have been waiting for this paper for ages. Rounding is common in elicited beliefs (.50, .75…). Does it bias estimation of weights on prior (delta) and likelihood (beta)? Yes: when rounding is less frequent, delta, beta are closer to 1 (=Bayes). A fix is given

I like Ryan’s paper and (obviously) I think complexity matters for behavior. But I think Florian’s updating too much from one experiment. I want to see replications and results from ‘nearby’ designs before saying the lottery anomalies have nothing to do with risk.

Permanent designs like this can make bike infrastructure feel as natural and normal as sidewalks. Here’s a small city in Quebec (just west of Quebec City) with a population of 20,000.

Just published in Journal of Public Economics: "From viewers to voters: Tracing Fox News’ impact on American democracy" By @elliottash.bsky.social, Sergio Galletta, Matteo Pinna, & Christopher S. Warshaw. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Economic valuations fluctuate in ways empirical research cannot fully explain What information are we missing? Economic theories emphasize the role of hard-to-quantify beliefs and perceptions My job market paper develops algorithms + measurement to quantify perceptions of firms

760 empresas num universo de 14.492 empresas concentraram mais de 50% dos benefícios. 152 empresas ainda maiores absorveram 1/3 das isenções do perse. O programa foi feito para os grandes, não para os pequenos e médios.Pode se discutir o mérito, mas o público alvo é desperdício de dinheiro público

I am on the job market, which seems like a great opportunity for my first post on here! My job market paper is about failures of contingent thinking -- the act of reasoning about hypothetical events. 1/

My favorite kind of behavioral economics. Take a simple deviation from the standard properties of learning and explore all of its strategic implications.

Prof. Matthew Rabin (Harvard Econ & HBS) is hiring pre-docs! The position is ideal for candidates interested in psychologically-grounded economic theory. Details here: drive.google.com/file/d/1TY1e... academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/14382 #EconSky #econ_ra

#EconSky: does Bluesky have a centralized account for publishing/sharing open pre-doc and RA positions? Similar to (at)econ_ra on Twitter

your daily lesson on framing effects

Today seems like a good day to share this Scientific American story on how vaccines have saved more lives throughout history than any other intervention www.scientificamerican.com/article/see-...

Super cool that someone has actually estimated the environmental benefits of OPEC: about a trillion per decade! www.nber.org/papers/w3311...

i think they meant “the world’s stupidest construction project”

I teach a class on data science here at Illinois and during the seminar I host a competition for the class called "The Hunt for the Worst Data Visualization." This was my most popular post on Xitter, so reproducing some of the best submissions from previous years here:

Tariffs will lead to more immigration. Why? Because tariffs can reduce salaries on the other side of the border and the evidence shows that "a 10% increase in Mexican wages reduces migration rates and durations" academic.oup.com/restud/artic...

With apologies to @xkcd.com, I can think of no other way to describe the current hellscape of election takes

Health economics is doing something right (via @prashantgarg.bsky.social @trfetzer.com www.causal.claims)

brasileiro 2 horas depois da eleição: CHUPA CIRO GOMES estadunidense 2 horas da eleição: seu voto chegou no centro de distribuição de cajamar

bicho no pix fodase

Leiam o desabafo do Gil Riella no Lattes. Foi um melhores usos daquele espaço para a biografia do pesquisador

direito fundamental ao bacalhau

Belo Monte foi um dos maiores crimes ambientais da história do Brasil. E mal gera energia.

ANOM-style www.theverge.com/2024/5/23/24...

“Ah pq o bluesky é ruim pra marcas” bom. ótimo. excelente.

eu gosto muito de comparar essa eleição com as anteriores e ver que todos os preceitos do partido caíram - fundão eleitoral (tão usando) - coligações (tão fazendo em tudo que é canto do país) - reeleição (já tem filiado virando político de carreira) - liberalismo (virou linha auxiliar do PL)

nice

gráfico do dia: quanto mais renda, menos imposto de renda

You either die a apresentador de TV or you live long enough to see yourself become the barraqueiro de programa de TV

With Daron moving from Twitter, that's like 2/3 of Econ Twitter on Blue Sky (weighted by citations).

Pablo Marçal tem dito que não pagou apoiadores para compartilhar conteúdo a seu favor nas redes sociais. Mas tenho prints que contradizem ele. Desde que anunciou sua pré-candidatura, foram 3 campeonatos com ao menos R$ 125 mil em premiação. Contei nessa matéria 👇 www.estadao.com.br/politica/mar...

"THIS is the coffee that will make me productive," and other lies I tell myself

"Então vamos endurecer com eles. Prepare relatórios em relação a esses casos e mande para o inq [inquérito] das fake [news]. Vou mandar tirar sob pena de multa", dizia a mensagem de Moraes. Muito republicano. www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2024/0...

e o *fux* foi o único com coragem de votar contra

1/3 In 1984, Stanford economists 📉📈 tried to hire someone in "feminist studies", by which they in fact meant "gender economics." The search committee concluded that "two names came to the top of the list"

Me trying to remember the name of the RA that did all analyses of a seminal paper that got me a $500,000 salary.

Ariely/Gino: it's even worse than you thought. If Duke doesn't follow HBS, academic integrity means nothing. www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...