A bet that Oregon, Indiana, Miami, and Ole Miss would make the final four would have paid off 60-1 (Fair warning, I dont really bet on sports. So I had to ask AI. This might be wrong!)

Thoughts on Berkshire. Trying to think of a single significant positive. They have more cash than equities now. WB is out. And Todd Combs "left". So how much do you pay for a pool of cash waiting to be deployed by ... someone?

@financialtimes.com's list of "key things to watch" in 2026. This is good one. Will Apple finally decide on an AI strategy? And maybe a new CEO?

With historic PE's, remember to keep in mind interest rates too. A 20x market PE and a 4% 10yr is relatively cheaper than a 15x PE and a 6% 10yr. (Before you come at me, I know this math doesn't work across all cycles. But PE's from the early 80s are just not comparable to PE's during QE.)

NYC homicides by year. Still a few hours to go. But a near record low this year

2025 by month. The punchline: Mag 7 once again beat everyone. Why even bother owning the index?

Hey @michaelsantoli.bsky.social ... I know you are a data Jedi. How are you getting 7%(ish) YTD for the average S&P 500 member? I'm getting like 13-something. (Is it a survival bias thing?)

In light of today's Chinese military drills around Taiwan, an interesting article in WSJ with wargames scenarios. Japan war machine waking up? www.wsj.com/world/asia/c...

On the other site, Fear Factor got community noted. And it's a good one.

Tariffs as a % of GDP are at the highest level in more than 100 years amidst Trump's trade war—even though tariff rates are still lower than in the 1930s, they have a much higher impact because trade volumes are much larger than in the past

Interersting list. Today I learned what "science of reading" is. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...

Trump’s First Year Back, in 10 Charts www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

The actual is lower because of exemptions (particularly USMC) and shipment delays

Gotta admit. I'm not sad about it.

Food for thought, if you have kids in your circle waiting to hear from schools

Your irregular reminder that gold and "digital gold" are not the same.

I wonder how the Godfather would do at the box office if it had been released today.

He didnt realize who he was dealing with.

Kinda crazy. In the past month, both the NYT and WSJ editorial boards have openly said that the US Navy just isnt up to the job. If you're a company that makes boats, get ready. www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...

NY Times is the only one with details on the Nigeria strike. From an anonymous source who was not authorized to comment. Because this administration didnt think it was important to hold a press release or inform congress. etc.

Merry-Happy bluesky folks! Enjoy your extra market free day

Someone smarter than me needs to upload all the Buffett letters, transcripts, etc into an AI. And then we will always have Warren ... forever

GDP summary. Great one from @dianeswonk.bsky.social

GDP Consumption growth by category (courtesy @carlquintanilla.bsky.social )

GDP breakdown by component below. The story is: "Consumption recovers. Net exports continue snapback."

"Final Sales to Private Purchasers" (q/q annl) If this is correct, then spending is still healthy. I guess this is what Powell is looking at when he shrugs off labor market concerns.

NY Times had an article about private equity this morning. Here's a crazy stat. 31,000 companies?! And all of them together are worth about as much as Microsoft

Anyone remember "skew" from their stats class? There's a skew in the S&P 100 P/E multiples. In other words, there are some biggies bringing up the average by a lot.

Or... maybe we could help them get a job, and then they could pay US taxes. And eat at US restaurants, shop at US stores ... Just a thought.

@carlquintanilla.bsky.social ... question for Faber. Why is PSKY stock up today? Historically, the acquirer's stock falls when they announce a massive deal. (overpaying, distraction, etc)

Does momentum matter? Well, it depends. Below is an interesting table. The first line is the average return of the S&P 500 members. The second line is the average of ONLY the members who had outperformed the prior 5 years. +1.6% average over these 10 years

4️⃣1️⃣ bsky.app/profile/bsky...

Visa 5yr fwd PE multiple. Visa is one of the best businesses I've ever seen. But its stock has underperformed 4 of the last 5 years. The covid "cross border" downturn hurt. And now stablecoin is denting the multiple again. ... Not sure how I feel about it for 2026.

AMZN 5yr chart of its fwd PE multiple. A more extreme version of Nvidia's chart. Just a dramatic revaluation lower.

NVDA 5yr chart of its fwd PE. I dont see a bubble. I see a steady decline in the valuation.

This tweet is the 21st most read story on bloomberg in the past hour. To calculate shelter, the BLS mostly uses OER, which relies on a growth rate (rather than an observable price). Since they didnt have October, they just assumed growth was zero that month. (Very reliable, not at all relevant.)

Continuing claims... What's up with that sharp dip last week? And then we snapped back this week? Anyone else smell something funky?

Any thoughts @carlquintanilla.bsky.social ...? ;)

But this report may understate inflation a bit. Here's why: Usually the BLS collects prices all through November. But the shutdown kept it closed for the first half of November. So more prices than usual were collected in the middle of "Black Friday" sales.

Sometimes I get upset at @matt-levine.bsky.social being a much better writer than me. "Yoink!"

Macro fun. Below is the 10yr ust yld(blue) and 10yr inflation swap yield (red). They've been trading together recently. (Correl 0.42) ... If inflation trends lower as tariffs anniversary next year, then is it time to buy bonds again? (Honestly asking. Been a long time since I've said that!)

Maybe the @washingtonpost.com should take a look at U6 unemployment. I wouldn't describe that as "looks good".

Broadcom's nxt yr PE fell by 25% over 3 days. 15% from the stock. 10% from estimates going higher.

5yr inflation swaps back down. Now 2.37%. The lowest since April. Apparently they saw "slowing growth" in today's numbers.

Maga types love to say the unemployment rate is skewed by the denominator. Well, hard to argue with this. Total number of unemployed people.

One of the biggest moments of my career: USCIS canceled my client’s naturalization oath ceremony. We filed a lawsuit, went to trial, and the judge swore him in right there in the courtroom!

Employment rate and 24-month moving average. (Looking for inflection points.)

The unemployment rate for Nov might be wonky. They made some adjustments because of the shutdown.

Netflix posted a letter about the merger today. They include cable TV viewing time in the market share calc. On that basis, the Para bid is actually worse for competition. Nielson Share: Netflix 8.0% + HBO 1.2% = Netflix post deal 9.2% Para 8.2% + all WBD 5.6% = Para post deal 13.8%