CAPITAL ECON: “.. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is draining global oil inventories fast. Inventories could reach critical levels by end-June, setting the stage for Brent at $130-140pb, if not higher. And don’t expect US producers to ride to the rescue.”

Quite the dichotomy today

@michaelsantoli.bsky.social ... love David Synder. He's got a great old-school honesty to him. .. And if you need a new mystery broker, you know how to find me 👍

That's a fun stat.

Sellside analyst. Buyside analyst. Equity sales.

Glen plaid for the first day of May, @carlquintanilla.bsky.social ? Looking good my man

Not great. But not terrible.

Probably nothing.

Final Powell presser thread begins here. Fed won't move rates at 2:00p but the statement will be here at that time: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p... No SEP, but the presser is live here at 2:30p: www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHLb... Statement recap an analysis to follow when we get that shortly.

4 weeks ago: inventory was above all prior years 4 weeks later: inventory is now below all prior years

🛢️ #Oil "The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 1.79 million barrels in the week ending April 24. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by 4.4 million barrels. Analysts had expected a 300,000-barrel build. US crude…"

Global EPS revisions are screaming higher GS

Corporate leadership at a major us bank met today to discuss mythos. Be sure to click "update" on those software patches!

The furious reversal rally in the stock market has the S&P 500 carving out a rare technical formation called "The Bollinger Bands Are Drunk..."

Trump: "gas prices arent too high" America:

$MTUM Momentum keeps ripping... record high... More from me on @stockcharts articles.stockcharts...

So it’s now a game of “pain tolerance”. The world loses oil. Iran loses oil revenue. Who can endure that pain longer?

So the talks broke down. JD left after one day and 21 hours of talking. So... now what? I guess we'll check Truth Social tomorrow to see if the ceasefire is over?

@mkn.bsky.social spotted in the wild in Brooklyn! (I moved you to the new and notable section ;)

SCHAEFFER’S: “.. Palantir #$PLTR -7.4% & near the bottom of the Nasdaq today. “.. @michaeljburry on social media that Anthropic is ‘eating Palantir's lunch,’ citing competition concerns. PLTR now heading for lowest close in 6 weeks, breaching support at its ascending 320DMA; -27% YTD.”

Paul Sankey: "This could go on even longer until we're begging for mercy." @michaelsantoli.bsky.social

AAA natl avg gas price below. Maybe the public assumes it will go back down when the war is over. I feel like there's less panic about it (compared to 2022).

Interesting game theory here. Iran has the advantage only if the US believes that the strait will reopen if the US leaves. BUT, if Iran convinces everyone that the strait will be closed forever, then the US will be forced to go "all in".

Semis and data center are pulling down the SPX. But even the equal weighted index is weak today. (See below.) Not a great sign after two big down days last week, and some constructive comments from Powell this morning.

The #BondiTop 📉

“22% of the world’s traded urea, 24% of its aluminium, a third of its helium and 45% of its sulphur comes from the region”. The Iran war is roiling commodities far beyond oil economist.com/finance-and-... from The Economist

MS: ".. Starting from a disruption of roughly 20 mb/d, subtracting around 4.3 mb/d from the Saudi bypass, .. around 2 mb/d from escorted convoys in an optimistic case, and perhaps 2 mb/d from strategic stock releases still leaves the market short by around 11 mb/d." Sees Brent Q2 avg: $110

Anyone know why consumer staples are getting whacked today?

Core CPI continues trending lower. 6-month runrate fell below 2.5% for the first time. (Hope this keeps heading lower to offset the pop in gas prices.)

Insert the Dumbledore shrug gif here.

Jet fuel up 70-80% since January. Fuel is 20-30%. So a 15-25% hit to margin on the airlines. Airfare increases coming.

Sooo... no taco this weekend then? (Fuck.)

Each sentence was worse than the one before it.

S&P over the past 3 months below. We went through: an entire earnings season, an attack on Venezuela, a threatened attack on Greenland, a meltdown in software stocks, and now an all out war with Iran. And yet... the high/low range here is only 2.9%. That's really something.

Here's my question: even if Trump tacos, will that stop the Iranian bombing of Hormuz? He'll need a ceasefire agreement.

Dow Jones vs S&P 500... Today is a great example of why the Dow Jones is broken. GS and CAT are over 20% of the index. And both are down today -3.5%ish. That's why it looks so much worse.

Brent crude. $84 looks like a ceiling. If it breaks that, maybe moves higher. (Disclaimer: I dont know what I'm talking about.)

Rate cuts? What rate cuts? Futures now pricing only 1.58 cuts by yearend

Economist covering it now. But I'm surprised it's not getting more press. 20% of the world's oil supply is cut off. No one else concerned about that? NYT? WaPo?

Wow, huge reversal in International stocks over past two days. All of Feb's gains were erased quickly.

Only one of two things will reopen Hormuz: (1) ceasefire (2) stop all Iranian missiles/drones Both seem far away at the moment.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has all but stopped since yesterday. Read the @financialtimes.com Economics editor, Sam Fleming's analysis of what the impact the war in Iran will have on the global economy www.ft.com/content/31bf...

#$PSKY... This is why long/short is so hard. You think you found a nice short that will drift lower forever. Then one day, it pops 20% in your face.

Oops.

Fun fact of the day: % of the S&P 500 - #$NVDA 7.6% - All software 8.0%

From Bloomberg this morning. Article with commercial satellite images showing Iran's nuclear sites being rebuilt.

#$NVDA. Changes in EPS estimates this morning. And the stock up 1%? Hmm.