Admittedly, I dont watch the talk shows much anymore. But I will miss Saturday Night Live.

In one chart, why the Fed will cut today...

GS Fed prediction

Weekly claims update. Interesting data point from JPM. Ignore the pop yesterday.

Fun fact: WBD is worth about $37 billion. Larry Ellison made ~2x that amount in Oracle yesterday.

Initial jobless claims (4-wk avg). Weakness spiked to levels seen last spring.

Core goods, last 3 months annualized: 2.8% now. So, that's not good.

2yr yield falling back to its lows from last friday.

ORCL key takeaway

After lifting up my head from Oracle catch-up, this is the first thing I see. Are we doomed? How is the market not down 2% on this? Have we all just accepted that he's a shitposter?

*LARRY ELLISON SURPASSES ELON MUSK AS WORLD'S RICHEST PERSON

PPI is not affecting Morgan Stanley's PCE estimate.

Morgan Stanley out early with their expected Fed language next week

Tylenol maker Kenvue (KVUE) is down 10% on this, trading at 52w lows.

You can actually see the drop off in job growth. Right after his April liberation day announcement. Economic expansions don't die from old age. They die from a shock. And this was all him.

Over 125 economists signed the open letter calling on the President, Congress, and the American public to uphold the principles of Federal Reserve independence and not remove Lisa Cook without due process. There's still time to sign! And please share. #EconSky docs.google.com/document/d/1...

NVDA. Just a crazy chart. Nvidia's 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates: where they were vs where they are now. This is like when Google came public. Or when Apple released iPhone. A generational move.

Today is the 50th Anniversary of the best album of all time

Christ. Did anyone read the press release? Intel added comments from other tech execs in here. They all talk about how great Trump is. This is 3rd world stuff.

The Fed did not abandon the 2% target. It abandoned the 2% "average target".

PLTR.... Interesting that the stock had the same "bulge" after earnings back in Feb.

How many Hamptons vacations are being torched right now.

Incredible chart from Goldman’s desk: “.. construction on data centers is poised to surpass general office construction, having been only 20% as large as offices less than three years ago.”

Took them long enough. But they all see the game now.

European leaders dropping everything, last minute, to rally behind Zelensky in Washington is one of the Continent’s finest political moments this century.

A good explainer of where we stand with tariff-related inflation: .. it’s in “‘the middle mile,’ .. otherwise known as warehouses and distribution centers, and [is] yet to come.” @loriannlarocco.bsky.social @cnbc.com www.cnbc.com/2025/08/14/t...

"Stronger than recent months but lower than feared" Well... okay.

Monthly payroll data comparison - ADP vs BLS... Close enough for government work? ... Over the last 7 years, they had 0.76 correlation

I never thought I'd be such a fan of the WSJ Editorial Board. But we adversity brings strange bedfellows. www.wsj.com/opinion/all-...

WSJ editorial board dropping a Goodfellas reference. Well, if the shoe fits...

Celanese with the big miss. Industrial chemical demand weakening. For what it's worth...

NYT: “.. Trump treats facts in the same way that he treats people: He expects them to line up in support of his goals, and if they don’t, he seeks to get rid of them. “.. in doing so, he is leaving Americans ever more reliant on whatever he declares to be the truth.” www.nytimes.com/2025/08/05/o...

This is exactly right. I dont worry much cars. But I worry all the time about bikes. #ebikes

B of A: “.. An average vehicle has 1k-3k semiconductor components.” Industry estimates suggest a 100% tariff rate on chips and semis could “increase vehicle production costs by $4,800-$10,000.” $TSLA, $F, $RIVN “most impacted”

You dont say...

17 drug companies just got this letter. We're now on to White House vs pharma in addition to White House vs auto OEMs, White House vs dropshippers, White House vs the construction and hospitality industry, etc.

And there's confirmation. No cuts this month

#Squirrel 🐿️

$GOOGL $META from MS over the weekend

Do Markets Value Fed Independence? An Event Study.