Three (3) conferences in eight (8) days. Negative returns are real.

Intrusion of 🇷🇺 drones into 🇵🇱 shows difficulties 🇺🇦 (recently - 800 🇷🇺 drones into 🇺🇦) is facing >= 12 drones, 4-5 shot down. Interception rate ⬇️, using $$$ fighters, $$$ missiles (much more expensive than drones & targets, if any, themselves). No (known) use of anti-drone drones, machine guns, or EW

Poland and NATO will have to respond. And while they will nearly certainly not choose an offensive military response, whatever reaction emerges has to be forceful yet nonviolent. Seize Russia's frozen assets already.

Putin likes testing new leaders. He tested Zelensky similarly early on. That's what the attack on Poland was probably about. No doubt it was deliberate. Nawrocki is being tested.

Truly bizarre article, under the rubric of "analysis" The analyst seems to think that you need the aggressor's consent to win against him... & similar to Obama admin's approach ("Putin cares more, so we shouldn't do anything at all") Much analysis. Such insight. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/w...

The prime minister of Ukraine in the government building today. This is one floor above her office. Today was the largest attack by Russia since …. ever: 800 drones, over a dozen missiles. Kyiv is burning.

“The whole airport area GPS went dark" Her plane circled for 1 hour, then landed using analogue maps. This is an attack. Enough with the "plausible deniability" and doing nothing in response to clearly dangerous and deliberate action. 1/n www.ft.com/content/3c33...

To finally, decisively end 🇷🇺 invasion of 🇺🇦 we need 1) deoccupation of all occupied 🇺🇦 territory 2) reparations for the unthinkable destruction & the damage wrought on an entire generation 3) Nuremberg-style tribunal for 🇷🇺 war criminals Instead, Trump has lowered the bar to *A MEETING*

"Tom Clancy's The Idiot"

Signed. Please share!

So I guess you cannot indict a ham sandwich after all :) www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/u...

Have just unironically used the Ionescu-Tulcea theorem for the first time (i.e. outside of a class, and not when reading other people's papers) Math is magic

FFS Dubya looked Putin in the eye, and saw his soul. Obama had the "reset" Trump 1 was all over him Biden showed a lot of backbone (but provided only enough wapons for 🇺🇦 not to lose, not enough to win. And didn't seize 🇷🇺 assets) Trump 2 is still dancing with him www.state.gov/releases/202...

How many times does this have to happen for an American president to realize the gravity of the threat to 🇺🇸 from Russia? Instead of pretending it's not there so that they don't have to deal with it. Perhaps something to start convo with Putin in Alaska. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/u...

Major "peace in our time" vibes

Zelensky is already being cast as recalcitrant, uncompromising. Putin's exploitation of Trump's desire for any deal is working. And... "land swap"?!? 🇺🇦 land for... (getting to keep) other 🇺🇦 land?! Gee, what a swap. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/09/w...

Trump & Putin meeting in Alaska on 8/15 Apparently, without Zelensky. Potential catastrophe. Putin will present an (unacceptable) document for Zelensky to sign. Trump will go with it. After meeting, pressure will be on Z to sign it - which he will refuse to do, thus look as if he's uncompromising

Reposting, from 4 months ago.

Putin - and Russia generally - *frequently* break agreements. Putin's aim - capitulation of Kyiv - has not changed. This is a ploy to buy time/sanctions relief/avoid new mil aid to 🇺🇦 Trump wants a deal, Putin is giving him an empty one in which 🇷🇺 loses nothing. www.wsj.com/world/putin-...

Someone at the Pentagon is actively sabotaging already approved weapons supplies to Ukraine. Hegseth unilaterally (without informing Trump, State Dept. or Congress) stopped them 3 times - in Feb, May, and July. Now this. edition.cnn.com/2025/08/08/p...

Again, Ukraine is not at the table. And if you're not at the table, you're part of the menu. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/07/w...

Left unsaid in this article, subheadline, and much of the rest of it is that Ukraine is *not* at the table. Putin wants another Yalta, remaking the world into spheres of influence. And he really wants to dominate 🇺🇦. His goals have not changed. 1/3 www.nytimes.com/2025/08/07/w...

Our paper is WP #2 at @econ4ua.bsky.social WP series! Exploit variation in attacks on civilians: 1 ⬆️ 🇺🇦 civ fatality => $6015 ⬆️ in same-day donations (=> $8169 cumulative) to major nonprofit 1% ⬆️ media mentions of mil activity => $2906 ⬆️ donations #EconSky Read more: econ4ua.org/wp-content/u...

❓Did you know that Econ4UA has created a repository of research papers on Ukraine and the Russian invasion? It includes categories such as finance, sanctions, trade, agriculture, energy, labor markets, and governance. See our database: econ4ua.org/research-rep... #EconSky

💡Econ4UA leadership @tderyugina.bsky.social argues that if democracies don’t get tough on Russia out of fear of its nuclear threats, Iran—and other countries—will conclude that acquiring nuclear weapons will enable them to wage war with impunity. The solution? Help #Ukraine win. Read the op-ed:

You know you are digging a deep hole if you're trying to fix a code/compiler issue, and an AI - after giving you lots of code trying to fix it - voluntarily suggests giving up and going a different route

Thinking about measurability a lot

Haven't posted in a while. Gonna change that

Humbled and honored to be interviewed by @larepubblica.bsky.social about secondary sanctions on Russia. Thank you for keeping the attention on these critical issues! www.repubblica.it/esteri/2025/...

On July 4th, no less. Putin is humiliating Trump. In the last couple of weeks, every combined attack (air- & sea-launched cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, large drones, and decoys), has been bigger than the previous ones. Today - 539 missiles/drones overnight. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/04/w...

Musk’s father, in Moscow at the invitation of the leading Russian fascist, called for reconciliation between his son and Trump. english.nv.ua/amp/musk-was...

Once again, for those in the back, and for the "diplomacy/negotiations" crowd, Putin is telling you exactly what he wants. All of Ukraine. Not half. Not the occupied land. All of it. Neocolonialism. Neoimperialism. Terror. War crimes. His aims haven't changed. www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Kyiv...💔

My city Odesa today 😔🇺🇦

More over Iran provided fucking russia with ballistic missiles in very crucial moments when own russian stocks were severely depleted.

Interesting (not surprising) to watch Putin abandon ally Iran (that provided Russia with thousands of Shahed 131/136 drones to attack 🇺🇦, when Russia was desperate). Russia and Iran have also signed a "comprehensive strategic partnership" in January. Also how is that BRICS cooperation going?

One of the wonderful quirks of Kharkiv is a children's railroad – a fully functional rail system with small cars where children can learn about rail transit, and have fun riding the small railroad. I rode it as a kid and had a ton of fun. Russia bombed it today.

Truly an awful attack on my native Kharkiv. Civilian homes and apartment buildings. Beyond disgraceful. Russia is a terror state.

This is true. But out of the sides of these turrets, remotely controlled and AI-aided drones are flying out and destroying targets all of NATO could not destroy for 70 years. The turrets are held in place by the weight of the drone operators' balls.

🤬 Horrifying moments of the bombing of residential (!) buildings by drones in Kharkiv tonight, — Mayor Terekhov.

Now would be a good time for the UK and the EU to seize the $220-$300 billion of Russian funds that have been frozen in February 2022. There is no question that Russia is responsible for the devastation it wrought in Ukraine. And no question that Russia will not pay, unless it is forced to.

A 🇫🇷 (? likely; they gave 5-6 Mirage 2000 to 🇺🇦 but this is a different mod) drew the 🇺🇦 trident (country's seal) over the Black Sea.

🇺🇦 has successfully attacked the Crimean Bridge (Putin's symbol of occupation, build after annexation) for the third time. 1100 TNT equivalent in the pillar. The attack is continuing - unmanned surface vessels currently blasting a path through defenses for other USVs.

There is a real problem. There are many in the West, on all sides of the political spectrum, who do not understand Russia, yet fear it, treating it with kid gloves. Russian demands are always to be adhered to. Unlike the wishes of other peoples to live in peace. Those can always be dismissed.

Russia: "we demand disarmament, surrender of your people, and your territory" Ukraine: "No." Euronews: "Russia and Ukraine remain far apart" 😡 😡😡 Being equidistant between the murderer and the victim is a bad place to be for a news agency.

Ukraine attacks military assets. No civilian casualties. Russia rains cruise missiles on high-rises and civilian power plants. That's the difference.

🇺🇦 launched one of their most successful strikes of the war. 🇺🇦s are very good a drone warfare 🇷🇺 has Soviet-era bombers that have been very destructive (launching cruise missiles) in air strikes 🇷🇺 moved their aviation very far from the front, so it's been difficult to attack it UNTIL NOW... 1/

Werner Von Braun would like a word. Also, do the Manhattan Project. Von Neumann, Fermi, Szilard, Wigner - and Einstein, whose letter got the ball rolling. To name just a few. Or American mathematics: Courant, Kac, Lax, Wald...