Guys, China’s risk calculus on Taiwan is not determined by some global scale of the acceptability of aggression

China, right now, believes that the costs of attacking Taiwan are unacceptable, U.S. deployment or otherwise. I think it's important that the doom and gloom about deterrence and the future of the free world not come from the free world. To believe that we are doomed is to doom ourselves.

My conversation with @danzwku.bsky.social on Taiwan.. We share a hope for peace across the Taiwan Strait, for the Taiwanese people to choose their own destiny, and for freedom of the Chinese people on the mainland. youtu.be/eYX-EsrmbgA

Scholz was the German Chamberlain. Merz has the chance to become the German Churchill.

As both a German and an American, I wish this wasn’t so. I would very much love to be proven wrong about this in 2025.

The lesson of 2024: Don’t count on America. The lesson of 2025 will be: Don’t count on Germany.