Elanco $ELAN receives USDA approval for new anti-IL31 monoclonal antibody injection targeting canine allergic & atopic dermatitis Last major "blockbuster" ELAN has been guiding Competes with Zoetis $ZTS Cytopoint Effective for 6-8 weeks post-treatment (Cytopoint: 4-8 weeks)

Trump was able to rename the Kennedy Center for himself after he rigged voting rules "Before rename, Kenney Centre changed board rules so only presidential appointees could vote" (WaPo) It's more effective than inciting a mob like Jan 6 What do you think he will try in 2028?

"Tech Startups Are Handing Out Free Nicotine Pouches to Boost Productivity" (WSJ) $PLTR Palantir had "2 nicotine startups (Lucy Nicotine & Sesh) made branded vending machines filled with flavored products" for their DC office Article anecdotal, had little other information $PM

"Bitcoin Showdown: Chanos v Saylor" (Bloomberg) "From the time Chanos made his short call on Strategy $MSTR public through Nov. 7, the date he said he exited from the position, Strategy shares dropped 42%" YTD, MSTR is down 48% while BTC is up 6% (chart below is as of 17-Dec)

"Nextrade has become a hit among South Korea’s risk-loving amateur investors" Launched in March, now "nearly ⅓ of turnover by value" in S. Korea "In the US, ~80 alternative platforms handle 20% of total trading volume, while 3 such exchanges in Japan make up about 10%" www.ft.com/content/df01...

Senior UK opposition politician (Shadow Attorney General) acting as high-pay lawyer for Russian oligarch (Roman Abramovich), is criticized by government MP Opposition party chair response: He is also "acting pro bono ... defending British veterans ... You’re trying to smear him"

UK politics: Keir Starmer & Rachel Reeves pollings deep in negative territory, worse than Kemi Badenoch's But this is in part result of polling being a NET figure They are penalized for being well-known Starmer -54 = -72 unfavourable and +18 favourable Polanski -6 = -12 and +6

"Best Year for UK Stocks Since 2009" (Bloomberg) But "Greggs $GRG shares are on track for their worst year on record", down 39% Most of the decline occurred in the 2nd week of the week, when shares fell 26% between 7- and 10-Jan www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

FDA reportedly "aims to finish reviewing the pouches from Philip Morris, Altria, Reynolds American and Turning Point Brands by December" (Sep-25, Reuters) $MO on! PLUS PMTA only submitted in Jun-24 $PM ZYN Ultra PMTA submitted Nov-21 But on! PLUS is the one authorized first h/t GregTHR on Twitter

Trump is a loser

"Microsoft’s $MSFT Nadella overhauls leadership as he plots AI strategy beyond OpenAI" Big external hires, internal promotions, weekly all-hands meeting, CEO meeting more start-ups "Satya is trying to demonstrate a sense of urgency" Deputy CTO: "Satya is in 'founder mode'"

"Ocado $OCDO has ended exclusive arrangements to supply its automated grocery warehouse technology as investor pressure grows following setbacks to its partnership with Kroger in the US"

The biomodal distribution strikes again "Top US law firms hand associates $300,000-plus bonuses" (FT) "Large firms ... are offering bonuses worth up to $140k to their junior attorneys. The bonuses take total annual pay as high as $550k for associates"

Nobody rings a bell at the top But they may trade Pokémon cards? "Logan Paul to Sell Most Expensive Pokémon Card at Auction" (Bloomberg) Purchased for $5.3m; $2.5m advance from Goldin Auctions as part of their Netflix show He bought on Jul 22, 2021 NASDAQ peaked 4 months after

"Diageo $DGE has a new boss. What can he do if we’re all going off booze?" (The Times) Little new info here except noting Dave Lewis "is a 'product' guy" We remember Lewis from Tesco $TSCO turnaround, where playbook was efficiencies, value, new products

Throw the baby out with the bathwater, stocks edition "Matthew Beesley, CEO of Jupiter Asset Management, describing his approach to equity investing in 2026 as “anything but America”" US stocks in aggregate may be "expensive" But many of the best stocks globally are US names

Oh well if Putin told him then it must be true

Capital Gearing Trust $CGT still 3% lower in price from the time "veteran fund manager" this Peter Spiller interview in 2022: "Look at the 1960s, not 1970s, for economic lessons" Buffett said investors should focus on things that are "important and knowable" Macro is not knowable

Whitbread $WTB: 50% of annual incentive based on PBT, rest on savings & other objectives (next post) Nothing on Return on Capital or Cashflow This seems unhealthy for a business where even bad CapEx and deliver "growth" (albeit at low ROCE)

The death of traditional long-only funds continues "Investors have pulled money for 11 consecutive years, totaling $1 trillion" "Only 27% of large-cap equity mutual funds outperformed the market" in 2025 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"Why fat jabs could help you give up alcohol" (Telegraph) "Taking obesity jabs could cut the amount of alcohol people drink by about 40%" $DGE $BF.B www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...

"China launches military drills around Taiwan" (FT) PLA Navy Rear Admiral Yang Yi: "With every increment of China's strength, the hope for world peace grows by one more measure" (Global Times annual conference) www.ft.com/content/fd7c...

Changes in Grocery Spending 6 months Post GLP-1 Largest reductions in high-calorie, high-sugar and high-fat categories Worst is chips & other savory snacks $HSY $MDLZ Alcohol spend reduction averaged 2% $DGE Spices & condiments actually worse at ~5% $MKC

"British American Tobacco: 2025 Year-End Review (Quick Note)" Shares have gained 65% in Dollars year-to-date, after Velo Plus grew by a triple-digit percentage in the U.S. $BATS $BTI $PM $MO $IMB

Correct answer is (1) 0-2.5% 57% on Twitter got this wrong British American Tobacco $BATS $BTI expects Adjusted EBIT to grow by 2% ex-FX in 2025 Modern Oral is 2% of US revenues, 1% of group revenues You shouldn't buy BAT just because of Velo Plus (it's even less key to BAT than ZYN is to $PM)

Trump's DOJ was monitoring all the movements of the Miami Herald reporter who was covering the Epstein case.

Trump supports right-wing junta's rigged elections "Myanmar Junta Seeks Legitimacy in Widely Condemned Elections Embraced by US" (WSJ) "Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem declared last month Myanmar was moving toward “free & fair elections”"

"Pope Leo’s pick to lead New York Catholics signals shift away from Maga" (FT) "US Catholic clerics are increasingly vocal in their criticism of Trump’s harsh anti-migrant policies and the draconian ICE round-ups" Gift link below

"Inside the New Fast Track to a (Trump) Pardon" (WSJ) "A pardon-shopping industry where lobbyists say their going rate is $1m. Pardon-seekers have offered some lobbyists close to the president success fees of as much as $6m" This may be an already toned-down version Gift link below

British American Tobacco $BATS $BTI Quiz US Velo Plus's category share has tripled in a year (by Oct-25) and volume will be up a triple-digit % this year How much is BAT EBIT expected to grow ex-FX in 2025? 1. 0-2.5% 2. 2.5-5% 3. 5-7.5% 4. 7.5-10%

New reporting says Don Jr. directly facilitated the pardon of a crypto whale who had promoted the Trump's family crypto. Jr. brought the pardon lawyer to the White House, and introduced him directly to his Dad. Pardon occurred right after. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/pardon-the...

"Okava Pharmaceuticals, launches clinical trial of GLP-1 implants in cats" (ABC News) "Miniature implant ... will deliver the GLP-1, continuously for up to six months" ">50% of domestic household cats are overweight or clinically obese" Dogs next $ZTS

"Brown-Forman: Down 15% in 2 Weeks (Quick Note)" Shares near their 52-week low, with a ~forward 15x P/E and a 3.5% Dividend Yield $BF.A $BF.B $DGE

"Coty $COTY Is Speeding Up Its Supply Chain to Turn Around Sagging Sales" Interview with Chief Global Supply Chain Officer Graeme Carter Shifted some production from Europe to US, made different stages of product development less sequential

ICE detain father shopping on Christmas Eve—then steal his family's groceries. Then 3 agents divvy up his paid for food—taking what they want for themselves. "Can I just get the wife's number to call and let her know?" woman asks. "No, guess he should've complied," agent says. Yakima, Washington

Making your drink last, US Whiskey edition "We've said for a long, long time, about 80% of our consumers, which are the more casual consumers, buy two bottles a year." - Lawson Whiting, Brown-Forman $BF.B CEO (Oct-25 CMD)

Brown-Forman $BF.B chased youth too much "We were very laser focused just on recruitment of LDA to 29 previously in the previous couple of years. What that did was limit our opportunity ... We certainly have to gain our share of lapsed drinkers back" Mark Bacon, Global MD, Jack Daniel's

US Spirits market - Nielsen takeaway data, $BF.B CMD Chart is from Sep-24 to Sep-25; step change in market* y/y growth slightly more than half-way through That seems to be Apr-25 (Trump tariff news) *TDS ex. RTDS = Total Distilled Spirits ex. Ready-To-Drinks (light blue line)

"Nike’s $NKE Revival of Classic Brand Has a Hitch - It just never renewed the trademark rights" "Registration had lapsed in 2019" Someone "purchased a website for the brand in 2021 and filed to register the trademark the next year" "Total 90 relaunch plans surfaced in 2024"

"Chess not checkers" is a popular saying Yet, when Brown-Forman $BF.B wanted a picture to go with their message "still playing the long game" (Oct-25 CMD), they went with a picture of checkers Does chess just not fit with their brand?

Brown-Forman $BF.B vs. Diageo $DGE We had thought BF more defensive, given BF raised its prices less, has more RTDs and lower EM exposure But, between Trump nuking exports to Canada and lower used barrel sales to whiskey makers, BF sales have been no more resilient from peak

"Walmart muscles its way into New York City as ecommerce sales leap" (FT) "Now $WMT provides same-day deliveries of fresh produce and shelf-stable food staples to Queens and parts of Brooklyn and the Bronx" "Manhattan and Staten Island ... could order shelf-stable staples"

Rookie data room mistake Clearly none of the people involved had ever worked as an IBD analyst

Thanksgiving as a hazard for shortsellers "The Friday after Thanksgiving is ... the scariest day of the year. Retail investors get all wound up during the holiday, then fire up their Robinhood apps and jump into the act Friday ... (when) the market is otherwise thin" (Bronte)

US Spirits: NABCA Control States Nov-25 figures show value -8.7% (volume -6.5%, price/mix -2.2%) Worst were Canadian Whiskey (value -17.7%) and Scotch (-17.4%) LTM figures show value -2.9% (volume -1.6%) $BF.B $DGE

Rightmove $RMV: Kayne Anderson Rudnick disclosed reduction in its position from 4.94% to 3.95% This continues a string of reductions since Nov-25, when they still owned 7.99% before 10-Nov They held as much as ~11% at the start of 2024

NPR: "No more quotes from Carl Tobias" The UK equivalent of this is Russ Mould, an "Investment Director" with retail platform AJ Bell, who is ever ready to supply a quote for any number of sectors and occasions "Jack of all trades ..."

"Billionaire’s Heirs to Pay $750M in Biggest-Ever US Tax-Fraud Case" (WSJ) "Much of the money Brockman allegedly hid stemmed from his investments in Vista Equity Partners, which he helped launch as an early backer of the firm"

"Tech groups shift $120bn of AI data centre debt off balance sheets" (FT) $66bn of this is Oracle $ORCL, $30bn is Meta Platforms $META, and $20bn is Elon Musk's xAI www.ft.com/content/0ae9...

Whitbread $WTB CEO Dominic Paul in role since 2023 He was CEO at Domino's Pizza UK $DOM in 2020-22 He resolved the franchisee dispute that predated him However, he was there <3 years during which DOM share price fell 15%+ Before that, he headed Costa for WTB during 2016-19