As number of vapers in our communities keep increasing, so too will their political power. Politicians ignore them now but harder to do that when many more vapers @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social

1/2 Higher cigarette excise (& therefore higher retail prices) increase smokers: (i) shifting to cheaper brands; (ii) shifting to cheaper black market supplies; & (iii) quitting. But does anyone know what proportion go to i, ii or iii? @jamomartin.bsky.social @edjegasothy.bsky.social

2/2 Although supporters of cig excise say it’s net progressive not regressive because of net benefits, how does that work for poor people in cost of living crisis? Higher cig excise easier to accept if world’s most popular & most effective quit smoking aid, ie vaping, was more available than cigs

www.aliveadvocacymovement.com/post/austral... @alexwodak.bsky.social @drbfreeman.bsky.social @melissasweetdr.bsky.social

Maintaining close contact, better still, working closely with people with lived experience reduces risk of academia going off rails. Tobacco harm reduction opponents, unlike supporters, rarely have links with smokers or vapers. Hanging with prohibitionist billionaire philanthropists is risky

Can cigarette prices ever be too high? Of course not! Forthcoming article interviews 5 people who agree cig excise should never - under any circumstances - be lowered @jamomartin.bsky.social @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @edjegasothy.bsky.social

reason.com/2025/09/17/w... @alexwodak.bsky.social @drbfreeman.bsky.social @melissasweetdr.bsky.social TAXES CAUSE BLACK MARKETS

www.aliveadvocacymovement.com/post/five-ex... @alexwodak.bsky.social @drbfreeman.bsky.social @melissasweetdr.bsky.social

I'll add that I supported lowering the legal price of cigs before, but am now questioning it. I don't think more enforcement on illicit smokes will win. That war, like that on drugs, is lost. Encouraging switching to far less harmful vapes, as the NZ govt does, is the proven way to reduce smoking.

Happy to have it explained to me why lowering the price of legal cigs would help because I tend to agree with Ron that it's the illegal floor price that would still be most attractive if the govt didn't match it. It won't. Vapes should be a separate issue from smokes and be widely available.

Safer, smoke-free nicotine products-vapes, heated tobacco products, snus, nicotine pouches-replace deadly cigarettes when they’re allowed to be attractive, affordable & accessible.Smokers prefer them. As does tobacco industry. 1% PMI’s net profit 2015 but 40% 2024! Replacement now unstoppable

@alexwodak.bsky.social @drbfreeman.bsky.social @melissasweetdr.bsky.social

Australia learnt early in HIV epidemic talking to people with lived experience critical. “Nothing about us without us” helped Australia slow spread of HIV, saved many lives & hospital beds. Unfortunately, Australia didn’t adopted this approach to vaping, continued policies which didn’t work

"Minister Butler, I want you to hear this clearly: you are not protecting public health. You are harming it." An open letter to Mark Butler @alexwodak.bsky.social @drbfreeman.bsky.social @melissasweetdr.bsky.social www.aliveadvocacymovement.com/post/austral...

Australia shifted much of its legal cigarette market from taxed & regulated to illegal untaxed & unregulated supply by ⬆️ cig exercise to unrealistic levels & refusing to consider ⬇️ them. @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social share.google/EKyDrYmWTN1V...

“Soaring cigarette taxes are driving desperate smokers towards smuggled cigarettes and undermining law enforcement, a former Australian Federal Police detective has revealed” @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social www.skynews.com.au/australia-ne...

Reducing smoking helps reduce inequality & nicotine vaping and other forms of tobacco harm reduction accelerate decline in smoking much more than conventional tobacco control. @edjegasothy.bsky.social @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @m1ngthemerciless.bsky.social newsroom.co.nz/2025/09/10/c...

@alexwodak.bsky.social @drbfreeman.bsky.social @melissasweetdr.bsky.social Tobacco Harm Reduction Works!!! newsroom.co.nz/2025/09/10/c...

What does tobacco control think it can achieve by cheating when inexorable & unstoppable replacement of deadly combustible cigarettes by safer, smoke-free nicotine products is taking place anyway? @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @caphra.bsky.social

Not all people working for tobacco companies are evil & not all people working in public health are saintly. Worth remembering. @jamomartin.bsky.social @edjegasothy.bsky.social @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @jgitchell.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social

Doing very nicely financially for hating harm reduction! 5 staff at @who.int’s tobacco control department earn >UK PM & French President; highest paid staff take home ~ $300,000 per year; > UK PM ($232,930) & French President ($234,147) @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social clearingtheair.eu/en/post/prof...

Vapes (& other low-risk, smoke-free nicotine options) already rapidly replacing deadly cigarettes as consumers & producers switch to safer & much preferred options. US vapers will outnumber smokers in 2-3 years (graph). Real market disruption like EVs replacing fossil fuel cars

“Yet instead of facing these outcomes, Butler, the PHAA, and their defenders cling to prohibitionist dogma” @alexwodak.bsky.social @melissasweetdr.bsky.social @drbfreeman.bsky.social www.aliveadvocacymovement.com/post/austral...

Good to see Australia likely to soon allow cytisine prescribed for smoking cessation. Maybe later over the counter? Maybe as effective as vapes? @racgppresident.bsky.social @publichealthaus.bsky.social @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clini...

Fancy Croakey ignoring SOCIAL cost further impoverishing low-income smokers with unaffordably costly cigs! Ignoring impact on organised crime! Cig prices will come down to price smokers prepared to pay. Sooner or later. @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social

Organised Crime Australia Inc are just going to love this Croakey piece arguing keep cigarette excise sky high so black market stays huge @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social @jamomartin.bsky.social @edjegasothy.bsky.social www.croakey.org/debate-on-cu...

How dumb is Australia raising cigarette excise to unaffordable levels making giant black market get even bigger! By Professor David Heilpern, Dean of Law School, Southern Cross University @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social www.echo.net.au/2025/09/poli...

Surely Emeritus Professor Simon Chapman AO deserves by now a coveted Robert F Kennedy Jr Award for Services to Public Health? @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @jamomartin.bsky.social @edjegasothy.bsky.social @publichealthaus.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social colinmendelsohn.com.au/chapman-4/

Ross Fitzgerald rightly points out Australia’s sky-high & ⬆️cigarette excise & quasi prohibition of vapes huge gift to organised crime & more punishment for low income smokers & families. Unsustainable. @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social citynews.com.au/2025/serious...

Recent rise & rise of cigarette prices in Australia! Tobacco control never seen a price rise they didn’t like! Even during cost of living crisis when more low income people smoke & also smoke more cigs/day! @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social

Here’s how Australia’s cig tax has been climbing. Can’t show how illicit cig sales have recently been climbing cos they’re illicit. Bet Organised Crime is very happy! And thanks to all experts who’ve never seen cig tax increase they don’t like! @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social

🎉 Happy Tax Day, Australia! 🎉 Cigarette prices up again and the black market sends its sincerest thanks to Canberra for the free profit boost. @alexwodak.bsky.social @drbfreeman.bsky.social @melissasweetdr.bsky.social

Australian alcohol consumers accept moderate pricing but smokers don’t accept exponential cig price increase so Australian cigarettes now among most expensive in world. Graph of cig prices vs CPI last 50 years from The Guardian.

Australia has better chance of draining Pacific Ocean than draining ocean of illicit cigarettes, tobacco & vapes @paulbongiorno.bsky.social @johnquiggin.bsky.social @alankohler.bsky.social @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social @phaa-onehealth.bsky.social

Now inevitable Australian govt sooner or later have to cut cigarette tax to reduce organised crime. Black market cigs now low risk-high gain crime. Splurging $$s on law enforcement will only achieve square root SFA @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @m1ngthemerciless.bsky.social

Great new for Australian organised crime! Only tomorrow left to buy cigarettes before yet another 5% increase in cigarette excise starts on Monday 1 September. Already most expensive cigs in world! #auspol @jamomartin.bsky.social @edjegasothy.bsky.social @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social

Great news for Australia’s organised crime because today last day before next 5% hike cigarette excise starts Mon 1 September. Great day for people selling bling, real estate & luxury cars. @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @edjegasothy.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social

Fri, Sat, Sun then Monday 1 September .. Australia gets new 5% increase in cigarette excise! Cig excise in Oz up 340% in 20 years! Big thank you to tobacco control from Organised Crime! Can pay off new Lamborghini by Xmas! Get some bling too! @jamomartin.bsky.social @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social

Organised Crime loves Australia’s policy on cigarettes & vapes! Huge stimulus to black market. Rampant fire bombing as rival gangs of fight over control.

www.bay939.com.au/local-news/w... @alexwodak.bsky.social @drbfreeman.bsky.social @melissasweetdr.bsky.social

Will be worth watching!

Butler is right, up to a point, higher prices of goods reduce consumption & this includes cigarettes. But higher prices also shift consumption from premium to economy brands & from higher priced legal to much lower priced illegal cigarettes @jamomartin.bsky.social @edjegasothy.bsky.social

Butler arguing as if powerful market forces can be ignored forever with impunity. But that’s not how it worked out in Eastern Europe or USSR in 1980s. One by one they all collapsed & that’s what will happen to tobacco harm reduction denialists @jgitchell.bsky.social @chancethegardener.bsky.social

90% world’s vapes made China, 90% of these made Shenzhen, shipped to rest of world through neighbouring Hong Kong harbour. Vapes strictly banned HK so need special laws allow vapes transit HK. Cognitive Dissonance!!! @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social

www.health.gov.au/ministers/th... @alexwodak.bsky.social @melissasweetdr.bsky.social @drbfreeman.bsky.social

Only 4 days now left till Australia’s next cigarette excise hike of 5% on Monday 1 September. Looking good for cigarette & tobacco black market! @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social

Who to believe re ⬆️ cigarette excise - Simon Chapman johnmenadue.com/post/2025/08... or Ben Fordham’s piece on 2GB? Actually Ben Fordham’s 100% right. Increased tax on 1 September simply means more smokers will buy cigs sold by organised crime. @edjegasothy.bsky.social @jamomartin.bsky.social

Want to know what severe unintended -ve consequences of swingeing cigarette excise includes? Then read this @jamomartin.bsky.social @edjegasothy.bsky.social @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @algore09algor.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @m1ngthemerciless.bsky.social www.theage.com.au/national/fro...