Casey Middleton, PhD
@caseymiddleton.bsky.social
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Infectious disease modeling Views are my own
Throughout your scientific career, you will read hundreds of dense manuscripts. 📚 As the literature stack piles up, remembering exactly where you saw a specific methodology or finding can be tough. Here is how I use a relational database to keep track of it all (and et al.). 👇
4 days ago
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Carl T. Bergstrom
10 days ago
1. A bit of evolutionary biology. I'm really intrigued by a new perspective piece from Steve Frank that explores connections between how natural selection creates systems that generalize and recent work in machine learning about the surprising capabilities of massively overparameterized systems.
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Generalization as the great leap in evolvability: insights from machine learning
Abstract. Natural selection encodes learned information in the genome. Learned solutions may be tuned specifically to past challenges, failing in altered e
https://academic.oup.com/evolut/article/doi/10.1093/evolut/qpag111/8706652
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Casey Middleton, PhD
IDDjobs
10 days ago
PhD position (Melbourne, Australia) Mechanistic modelling of the epidemic dynamics of vector-borne zoonotic diseases in Australia with Oliver Eales, Freya Shearer, Marya Potorek at University of Melbourne More details:
http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2561
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Dan Larremore
about 1 month ago
Calculations on the containment of Bundibugyo ebolavirus with
@caseymiddleton.bsky.social
:
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
We estimate: 1. Symptom screening misses 68%–86% of infected travelers. 2. A 7d post-travel quarantine misses 26% of infections. → 18%–23% missed by combined measures. 1/
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Today's academic birthday gifts: ✨ Opinion piece rejected. 🏅 Tiny change required for resubmission of preprint. 🏆 Mandatory Disclosure of External Professional Activities due. Another day in paradise 🌴😎
about 1 month ago
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Your Local Epidemiologist
about 1 month ago
6/ We eliminated measles 26 years ago. We eradicated New World Screwworm 60 years ago. Keeping diseases at bay requires sustained investment, trained people, and ongoing engagement.
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Last night, we celebrated two birthdays: Cecil Earnest Middleton, born May 23, 1941 Casey Elaine Middleton, born June 4, 1996 Highly recommend celebrating your birthday with your granddad ✨
about 1 month ago
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Helen Branswell 🇨🇦
about 2 months ago
This is such a moving piece. If your interested in
#Ebola
— the damage it causes, the trauma families and communities and responders face during and after an outbreak — please read it.
www.statnews.com/2026/05/20/e...
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I saw Ebola as both doctor and patient. I wish people cared more about the Africans I worked alongside
“As another Ebola outbreak unfolds, we cannot repeat the mistakes of the past,” writes Krutika Kuppalli.
https://www.statnews.com/2026/05/20/ebola-patients-suffering-health-care-workers/
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🚨 Disease modelers: Do you use empirical VE estimates interchangeably to inform vaccine effect parameters? Me too, and it’s distorting our predictions. VE estimates often do not align with model parameters. We discuss these pitfalls & solutions in our new preprint:
arxiv.org/abs/2605.18571
🧵👇
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Incorporating vaccine effects into epidemiological models: common pitfalls and solutions
Incorporating vaccination into mathematical models appears deceptively simple: models integrate vaccine-derived protections, such as reduced susceptibility to infection, using parameters informed by e...
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.18571
about 2 months ago
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Adam Kucharski
2 months ago
My four year old: I do number maths. Adults do maths with letters they don’t know. Me: Actually, yes, they do! Him: Why don’t they know all the letters yet? I do.
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Today's micro-feminist win: changed my email signature from Thanks so much, to Thanks, Please hold your applause 🏅
3 months ago
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Adam Kucharski
3 months ago
Claude has started refusing to give citations. Yes, this technically means fewer hallucinations. But it doesn’t mean that AI is now hallucination-free in the way a careful researcher is.
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Mallory Harris, PhD
3 months ago
For years, Jay Bhattacharya has been upset at the MMWR for publishing findings that run contrary to his predetermined conclusions (e.g., on immunity after covid vaccination) and his political agenda. Now he's in a position to prevent those findings from being published.
add a skeleton here at some point
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Joshua Weitz
5 months ago
"This is not reversing the damage. It is spending more than we spent on WHO to create an institution that’s unlikely to survive and will certainly accomplish only a fraction of what we did by working together with the entire world.” - Atul Gawande,
@agawande.bsky.social
🎁
wapo.st/4tKRwyM
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After leaving WHO, Trump officials propose more expensive replacement to duplicate it
HHS proposes spending $2 billion a year to re-create systems the U.S. accessed through the WHO at a fraction of the cost, according to officials briefed on the matter.
https://wapo.st/4tKRwyM
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Mallory Harris, PhD
6 months ago
In a new preprint, we combine modeling with school-level vaccine data to contextualize the risk of 'breakthrough infections' and impacts on the ongoing US measles outbreak.
#idsky
#episky
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
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Interpreting Breakthrough Infections Given Assortative Mixing of Partially Vaccinated Populations
Declining vaccine coverage across the United States has increased the risk of outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases. Even when vaccines have low primary failure rates, conventional epidemic theory...
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.01.22.26344544v1
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Models can be powerful tools to study associations in data. But do they reliably reveal the truth? 🚨 In our new study,
@danlarremore.bsky.social
and I show that the model used to estimate VE from test-negative designs (TNDs) may not translate to other correlates of risk.
doi.org/10.1093/aje/...
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Statistical methods for estimating the protective effects of immune markers using test-negative designs
Abstract. While widely used to study vaccine effectiveness, test-negative designs (TNDs) also provide a platform for identifying and quantifying immunologi
https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaf280
6 months ago
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If you live outside of Minneapolis but want to support the community, Lisa and her husband are doing boots on the ground work to protect families! Donate to their work via Venmo @lisa-szabo-1
6 months ago
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Sometimes it feels really heavy to pretend everything is okay in our country and just keep doing research. It seems like the best thing I can do for my career is the worst thing I can do as a human being.
6 months ago
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It really says something about the state of our country that I no longer believe banning LED headlights should be a top federal government policy priority… But I still hate them, to be clear 😑
6 months ago
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Casey Middleton, PhD
The Tennessee Holler
6 months ago
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Stephen Kissler
6 months ago
How can diagnostic tests for infection support public health – and what challenges do we need to overcome to maximize their potential? Kristin Nelson, Tyler Brown, and I have a new article out digging into this exciting, complex issue:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
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Diagnostic testing as a public health intervention: challenges and opportunities
Published in Future Virology (Vol. 20, No. 12, 2025)
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17460794.2025.2603143?src=#d1e383
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I have recently taken up watercolor as a relaxing after-work hobby. This piece captures a subtle sunset over the lake at my parents’ house in Tennessee!
6 months ago
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Your Local Epidemiologist
7 months ago
6/ This is not a debate. That data is crystal clear. Since the 1996 Port Arthur massacre, Australia’s buyback program and strict licensing have kept mass shootings to ~0–1 per year. The U.S. has about 400–650 mass shootings annually and over 46,000 gun deaths each year. It’s not even close.
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Juliana Taube
7 months ago
The MIDAS Trainee Executive Committee is recruiting new members for 2026! 🤓 This is a great opportunity for grad students & postdocs in infectious disease modeling to gain experience organizing events & connect with peers. Applications are due by 9am ET on 1/1/2026, link in flyer & alt text.
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD DSc(hon)
7 months ago
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Interdisciplinary scientists’ notes apps be like: - VEdirect vs VEtotal - d/dx(a^x) = ln(x) a^x - grocery list - to read:
doi.org/…
- how to exit vim
7 months ago
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More than 75% of food crops depend on pollinating insects. What a striking cartoon to show the impact of dwindling insect populations 🐝
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7 months ago
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When they ask you to bring your talk on a flash drive, and you’re a professional, so you use your Tweety Bird flash drive
#Epidemics10
7 months ago
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Alessandro Vespignani
8 months ago
We’ve just released Epistorm-Mix, a new open dataset on how people in the U.S. mix across ages and settings in the post-COVID era. 📊 Contact-level data + contact matrices Built for epidemic modeling & forecasting Fully open data & code 🔗
www.epistorm.org/data/epistor...
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Epistorm-Mix: Mapping Social Contact Patterns in the Post-Pandemic United States
Epistorm-Mix provides individual-level contact data and contacts patterns characterization relevant for the spread of respiratory infectious diseases within the US population.
https://www.epistorm.org/data/epistorm-mix
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Carl T. Bergstrom
8 months ago
I've been on the road so I'm behind the times—but if you wanted to destroy US science, I can think of no more expedient action. Blatant unconstitutionality aside, fuck this backwards forwards and sideways.
www.science.org/content/article/u-s-congress-considers-sweeping-ban-chinese-collaborations
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Casey Middleton, PhD
The Ferrari Lab
9 months ago
Every fall, for the last 13 years, I have worked with CDC and WHO colleagues on a report in MMWR to update the estimates of the global burden of measles disease and mortality. This year we were already planning to publish in WER because of restrictions on communication between WHO and CDC.
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Your Local Epidemiologist
9 months ago
1/ Hey, do you need some
#goodnews
? I know I do. Between the noise and the chaos, it helps to stop and remember what progress actually looks like. Here are four public health wins to give you some good news for the week 👇
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Why, in this incredible world of technological advancements, are published inline equations still blurry? 😵💫
10 months ago
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#Vaccines
save babies! And they do it so well when we allocate resources to achieve high vaccination rates instead of meh vaccination rates 💉
add a skeleton here at some point
10 months ago
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Your Local Epidemiologist
10 months ago
1/ Today and tomorrow,
#ACIP
—the external body that sets vaccine policy—is holding a special session. One item on the agenda is the highly anticipated vote for the Covid vaccine. We’re expecting VAERS data to be misused to suggest 25 pediatric deaths were caused by the vaccine. Here are the facts👇
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I am pretty sure I had COVID-19 earlier this month, but I tested negative (by RDT) on days 1 & 3 of infection. How do you satisfy your academic curiosities about what pathogen has infected you without spending tons of $$ on diagnostic tests?
10 months ago
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I see news outlets reporting on falling ‘fertility rates,’ and I find this terminology non-intuitive… and potentially problematic. Falling fertility rates tell us about reductions in women’s birth rates, not reductions in women’s fertility! Let me explain:
12 months ago
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Reason #2,946 to keep funding science: color mix undoification 🤯
add a skeleton here at some point
12 months ago
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Sarah Cobey
about 1 year ago
Sang Woo (Daniel) Park and I are excited to share a new preprint, "Susceptible host dynamics explain pathogen resilience to perturbations" [1/8]
www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
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I don’t see enough people talking about how hard it is to search for this emoji 💁♀️ WHAT AM I SUPPOSED TO SEARCH FOR PLEASE TELL ME
about 1 year ago
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Nathan Lo
about 1 year ago
🧵1/N New study published in
@jama.com
on re-emergence of vaccine-eliminated infectious diseases under declining vaccination in the US. We model long-term risk and conditions for return to endemicity for measles, rubella, polio, & diphtheria. Collab w/
@Mathewkiang.com
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Adam Kucharski
over 1 year ago
Interesting new pre-print on test-negative designs and implications for estimating correlates of protection:
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Marc Lipsitch
over 1 year ago
New commentary on pandemic surveillance and the need to have it be repeatable/continuous for updating, out in
@pnas.org
with Freya Shearer of Uni Melbourne:
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
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The importance of playing the long game when it comes to pandemic surveillance | PNAS
The importance of playing the long game when it comes to pandemic surveillance
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2500328122
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A glimmer of good news amidst the chaos! On Monday, I successfully defended my PhD focused on infectious disease modeling. And yes, my thesis title is an acronym for my last name. With gratitude to the incredible friends and mentors who got me here… Dr. Casey Middleton, reporting for duty 🫡🦠
over 1 year ago
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The cycle of dissertation writing: 1. Don’t sleep well 2. Too busy for nap 3. Drink afternoon coffee 🔁 Repeat
over 1 year ago
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Dad from Kentucky: “We finally started feeding our baby raw milk and he has grown like crazy!” Me: “Oh. Aren’t you worried about bird flu?” KY Dad: “Well I know the farmer and I’ve met his cows.” Me: “….” Someone hire this man with his 🪄 diagnostic capabilities. He can detect H5N1 just by sight!
over 1 year ago
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Casey Middleton, PhD
Kirti Patel, MD
over 1 year ago
I’m getting tired of saying “this is so fucked up!” everyday.
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Casey Middleton, PhD
The Ferrari Lab
over 1 year ago
In September in Geneva we applauded a major milestone in the effort to eradicate measles and rubella viruses from the face of the earth. Today an unvaccinated child has died of measles in the country where the vaccine was developed. This is not greatness.
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