First article of the season: Skill Trees -Case studies from 2025 postseason and 2026 spring training -Game theory optimal use of new strategic asset letters2aj.substack.com/p/skill-trees

Here’s to a lot less bunting in 2026. 🍾

New article: Expected Value -Baseball’s new win conditions -IKF and baseball orthodoxy -The Default State letters2aj.substack.com/p/expected-v...

New Article: The Upper Bound letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-upper-... -The Padres have not fielded the best version of themselves. Until now.

New Article: Margin Call Part 4 letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal...

New Article: Margin Call Part 3 - Playing To The Park letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal... -Signs the Padres are emphasizing a more sophisticated pitch mix strategy -What they can control in a worst case scenario

New Article: Margin Call Part 2 - Lineup Optimization -A shift in the win formula -How impactful is lineup optimization? -Making the pieces fit letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal...

This is great work - as always - but i humbly propose my guy Archie could've saved some math time by looking at this scientific chart i posted in our Padres Hot Tub discord a few months ago.

Tuesday Pod! -Padres are going through some things. Hit the gas or throttle back? -SDFC steals the show from Son / LAFC; Can Dreyer win MVP? Weekend Recaps are always 🔓. Today’s @section1904.com:

New Article: Margin Call Part 1 - Small Ball letters2aj.substack.com/p/margin-cal... -The best time to purge a small win-probability drag is the start of a long season. The next best time is now.

New Article: Home Field Advantage letters2aj.substack.com/p/home-field... -Luis Arraez and lineup optimization -Now it's a sprint -What home field advantage means #ForTheFaithful #Padres

New Article: Pressing Questions letters2aj.substack.com/p/pressing-q... -Is the lineup optimized? -Is the use of an opener a one-off? -How close was the Dodgers series? #Padres

New Article: The Formula letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-formula -How the pieces fit -New strategies, and old -Close-quarters combat #Padres

New Article: First Impressions letters2aj.substack.com/p/first-impr... -New arms, new lineup, new strategies -Cease, fire -Farewell Strandy, gone but not forgotten #Padres

Always love when I get to spend an hour-plus talking #Padres with @letters2aj.bsky.social

New Article: All In -The reinforcements that arrived after the trade deadline finally detonated -The Trade That Didn't Happen -The Way Home #ForTheFaithful  #Padres letters2aj.substack.com/p/all-in

New Article: The Other TTO letters2aj.substack.com/p/the-other-tto -What to make of Dylan Cease's dreadful ERA? -Compounding effects of an extreme pitching style -Simplifying the guessing game

New Article: Adjustments letters2aj.substack.com/p/adjustment... -An interesting trend in opposing starting pitcher stuff+ -An approach change from Luis Arraez? #Padres

New Article: Degree Of Difficulty letters2aj.substack.com/p/degree-of-... -Analyzing the Padres record against over-and-under .500 teams -Roster analysis as the trade deadline looms -Chipping away at understanding the unprecedented slumps from the team's top hitters #Padres

New Gwynntelligence! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/g...

New Article: Market Analysis Part 1 letters2aj.substack.com/p/market-ana... -A look at the trade market dynamics surrounding the Padres top need -A surprisingly optimistic forecast of a popular acquisition target -AJ Preller and the high-ceiling siren song #Padres

New Article: Halfway Home letters2aj.substack.com/p/halfway-home -Forecasting the most efficient path to improvement -A look at Petco Park hitting, and the strategy it implies

I think Niebla is the best pitching coach in game, or second to Caleb Cotham, definitely on Rushmore of the moment

Luis slowly closes the door behind him and goes to sit down. Mike looks nauseous. Boyz II Men sing End of the Road softly from a Bluetooth speaker that looks like a baseball. “Cuz…”

New Article: Anatomy Of A Slump 3.0, Unicorn Edition letters2aj.substack.com/p/anatomy-of... -A deep look beyond the box score into what has been Luis Arraez' worst stretch as a hitter -The downstream costs of poor offense

New Article: Anatomy Of A Slump 2.0 letters2aj.substack.com/p/anatomy-of... -Examining the worst month of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s career -Staring into the void in left field -Future value vs present value #Padres

How did the #Padres fix Gavin Sheets?

New Article: Representative Sample letters2aj.substack.com/p/representa... -Further exploration of the Padres power outage -A thought experiment involving Victor Rodriguez -Why we actually need an injury translator

Hearing through my sources that Michael King might be sent down to Molokai

New article: Expanding The Zone Part 2: Please Stop letters2aj.substack.com/p/expanding-...

letters2aj.substack.com/p/power-outage New Article: Power Outage -Panic sets in as bats go dark -Where did the missing home runs go? -Is slugging really all the lineup needs?

This is very good, and I think this is the correct analysis

New article: Highlights and Lowlights letters2aj.substack.com/p/highlights... -Analyzing the strengths and weaknesses coming into focus, including another Randy Vasquez bump day 🥳

Today's @section1904.com is... 25% @dsmithshow.bsky.social and his wife walking through the airport 70% me rambling about Fernando Tatis Jr. 5% NBA talk You're gonna love it.

@chrisreed619.bsky.social just listened to the last PHT, love the question you raised about Arraez tipping his statue takes. Gonna watch out for that. Even if he’s not tipping, just a really clever question to raise🫡

New Article: A Time To Slug letters2aj.substack.com/p/a-time-to-... -The good and bad decisions made in Coors Field -Why Stephen Kolek's dream start and Nick Pivetta's nightmare may not have been flukes. -The welcome return of slugging, and the need for more #Padres

It was a big, important road win for SDFC and @whoknowsalex.bsky.social joined me after to talk about what we liked, what we didn't, and what it means for Wednesday's game. section1904.com/post-game-sa...

New Article: Probably Nothing letters2aj.substack.com/p/probably-n... -Due diligence on a disastrous 7th inning

Probably Nothing

@dsmithshow.bsky.social skipped a siesta to record this. The least you can do is listen and subscribe. section1904.com/padres-shild...

#FrontRowSeat: Padres top Yankees after Shildt's ejection

New Article: Manager Win letters2aj.substack.com/p/manager-win -Shildt's bellicose turn -The ripple effects of a bad call -The importance of situational hitting (don't get REK'd) #Padres

New Article: Get REK'd letters2aj.substack.com/p/get-rekd -A curious stat the Padres are on the right side of -The return of Kolek, positives and negatives -Looking under the hood on Aaron Judge's all-time hot streak

Wrote recaps for the #padres, #clippers and #sandiegofc. Get ‘em while they’re hot.

Me swinging at pitch 5 in MLB The Show like Ke’Bryan Hayes just did

New Article: Game Breaking letters2aj.substack.com/p/game-break... -The box score doesn’t capture the value Fernando Tatis Jr is creating

This was fun

Craig Elsten: "It's on Bogaerts to fix it." #Podcast #Padres #SDSUAztecs

Genuinely appreciate @619sports.bsky.social jumping on the @section1904.com podcast with me today to talk about... 🏌️‍♂️ Golf 🎙️ Sports media 🏈 The future of SDSU football 🐄 The best steak he ever had ⚾ What's next for the Padres? section1904.com/craig-elsten...