The ever-sunny but perpetually beleaguered Mike Johnson might hold the speaker’s gavel for another year, but the extent of his sway has never seemed more in doubt, write @elainegodfrey.bsky.social and @russellberman.bsky.social.

Indiana GOP redistricting opponents head into today's vote cautiously optimistic. "I don't want to say anything that's going to jeopardize the vote," one told me. Another said the heavy-handed WH pressure had caused senators "to dig in their heels." www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...

Earlier this week, an Indiana senator opposed to redistricting received a call she thought was from an aide. "No, this is Mike Johnson from Washington," the caller corrected. "And who are you with?" the incredulous senator asked the House speaker. www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...

"I refuse to be intimidated." Today, Indiana Republicans might do something that few others in the GOP have dared to do this year: Defy Trump. My piece from Indianapolis: www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...

An Indiana legislator opposed President Trump’s push for the state to redraw its congressional map to gain GOP seats in next year’s midterms. Harassment followed. “I’d rather my house not get firebombed,” the lawmaker told @russellberman.bsky.social.

Last week, the GOP lawmaker received a pizza delivery he didn't order. Other legislators have been swatted or subject to bomb threats. “The whole idea is, 'We know who you are. We know where you live,'” he told me. “They’re trying to intimidate us.” www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...

On Monday, I spoke with a GOP Indiana legislator who opposes Trump's redistricting push. He asked that I not publish his name. His fear isn't political—he's not running for reelection. It's safety. My piece on the intimidation campaign in Indiana: www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...

“Every Democrat, including the squishes, needs to understand that this president is unpopular, becoming more unpopular by the day, and is pushing wildly unpopular proposals. This is not some 800-pound gorilla,” @jamespmanley.bsky.social tells @russellberman.bsky.social.

🎙️ ON AIR: We're speaking with @sarahdwire.bsky.social, @russellberman.bsky.social, KQED's Adhiti Bandlamudi and Politico's Nicholas Wu about what's at stake if the government shuts down and how it could impact California. ❓What are your questions? 📻 Listen:

New Jersey is no one's idea of a swing state. But it's been moving rightward the past few years, and its governor's race in November has become a must-win for Democrats. My look at the clash between Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli: www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

“New Jersey is no one’s idea of a swing state,” @russellberman.bsky.social writes. This year, however, operatives in both parties believe New Jersey is an accurate barometer of how voters are reacting to the first year of Trump’s return tour in the White House:

Charlie Kirk’s allies are calling his murder a “turning point,” @elainegodfrey.bsky.social and @russellberman.bsky.social write. Defining the phrase may determine “whether the next few weeks bring confrontation, de-escalation, or something in between”:

Democrats are relying on a familiar strategy for key 2026 Senate races: old candidates. @russellberman.bsky.social on why the party thinks it’s the best option:

When it comes to matching Republican gerrymandering, Democrats’ hands are largely tied—and the party itself provided the rope, Russell Berman argues.

While Missouri health advocates hoped Hawley might hold the line, former Sen. John Danforth—a mentor-turned-critic—told me his vote was never in doubt: “It would just be impossible to be a Republican in good standing in this era & vote against it." www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

Hawley's Medicaid contortions were the starkest illustration of how a GOP, under pressure from Trump, ended up slashing a core safety-net program more deeply than most expected—and more than many of them wanted, Trump possibly included www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

“I did believe that he was genuine." I spoke with health-care advocates in Missouri about Sen. Josh Hawley's Medicaid journey—warning the GOP against cuts, voting for the bill that contained them, then immediately trying to reverse them www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

Mitch McConnell, Rand Paul, and Thomas Massie are some of the last remaining elected Republicans willing to criticize and vote against Trump. Their stands have left the president's diehard supporters in Kentucky feeling oddly unrepresented in DC: www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

Kentucky voted for Trump last year by more than 30 points, but it has become an unlikely hotbed of Republican resistance in his second term. I went there to find out what GOP voters think of their rebelling representatives: www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

To guard against reprisal from the Trump administration, most honorees at this year's Sammies did not take the stage or deliver an acceptance speech. It was a startling sign of how much fear pervades the federal workforce right now: www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

Is it now risky for a federal employee to accept an award in Trump's Washington? My dispatch from the Sammies, known as the Oscars for government, which were different this year: www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

@russellberman.bsky.social: “What’s most striking about candidate Trump of June 2015 is how similar he is to President Trump of June 2025. To the pride of his supporters and the chagrin of his opponents, he has changed American politics more in the past decade than it has changed him.”

Looking back on Trump's political debut, what's clear to both his supporters and critics is this: He has changed American politics over the past decade more than it has changed him www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

To mark the 10th anniversary of Donald Trump's descent down the golden escalator, I revisited Trump Tower—and the speech that launched his first presidential campaign: www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

Donald Trump launched his presidential campaign a decade ago today. @russellberman.bsky.social was there, and recently took a trip back to the escalator that started it all.

This is an important piece.

Vote Forward will release a study today disclosing that a major part of its letter-writing program in 2024 failed to boost turnout. Such admissions are rare. “We’ve got to actually be honest about both what works & what doesn’t work,” Yasmin Radjy told me: www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

“We have a people-pleasing problem in our party." Democratic organizers are hesitant to admit when get-out-the-vote efforts don’t work. One group is trying to change that. My new piece: www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

🎙️ ON AIR: We're speaking with @cgrisales.bsky.social‬ and @russellberman.bsky.social about what’s in President Trump's 1000-plus page budget bill and its political implications. ❓ What are your questions about the Republican budget bill? 📻 Listen:

“Rather than avoid the transgressions they’ve alleged Democrats have committed, Republicans have instead used them as license to go even further,” @russellberman.bsky.social writes:

Rep. Tim Burchett started this week with a warning for GOP leaders: Conservatives, he told me, might tank the 'big, beautiful bill' if forced to bend too much. But as is so often the case, Burchett & his allies found they could not say no to Trump. www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

House hardliners have said no to Speaker Mike Johnson, but can they say no to Trump? They haven’t yet. My new piece on the GOP’s struggle to pass the president’s “big, beautiful bill”: www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

I spoke with @gregsargent.bsky.social about our report on Trump's desire to accept a plane from Qatar to use as Air Force One and the rare Republican mini-rebellion against it: www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

Important point from @russellberman.bsky.social: Republicans are mostly criticizing Trump over the Qatar jet fiasco by focusing on security concerns as a way to avoid pointing out how profoundly corrupt it is. On the pod, we discuss why this scandal is getting worse: newrepublic.com/article/1953...

“In a rare moment of defiance, some of the loudest cries of protest about the possible gift are coming from some of Trump’s staunchest allies,” @jonlemire.bsky.social and @russellberman.bsky.social write.

“I think this is an opportunity for full change across the Democratic Party,” says @amandalitman.bsky.social. “Part of the way we change people’s opinion about the Democratic Party is to change the people who run as Democrats.”

Constituents have thanked Sen. Tina Smith for setting an example by retiring after less than a decade in office. She welcomes the gratitude, but it underscores a troubling dynamic for her party: Many Democrats can’t wait for their leaders to step aside. www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

“Only in the Senate can you be a 68-year-old grandma and still be considered fresh blood." Are Dems finally getting the message? Four senators are retiring, including two in their mid-60s. But too many others, activists complain, remain set in their ways: www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

As the Democratic Party's favorability ratings plummet, many activists "have become more aggressive about pushing senior lawmakers to do what Joe Biden did not—quit while they’re ahead, or at least still with it," @russellberman.bsky.social reports:

"The GOP stands virtually no chance of stabilizing the nation’s finances, the Republican economist Douglas Holtz-Eakin told me. The only question, he said, is 'how much worse will it be when they’re done?'" www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

Doomsday predictions about the national debt have not come true, leading both parties to assume they can add to deficits at will. But with the economy suddenly shaky, Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' could shatter those assumptions: www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

"The numbers don't add up." Trump has turned his biggest political strength—the economy—into a weakness, and Republicans in Congress could make it much worse, economists warn. My new piece: www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

Grover Norquist's opinion used to matter in the Republican Party. Does it still? He's now trying to warn Trump away from a tax increase on the wealthy, knowing that if the president wants one, he may be powerless to stop it www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

It's Grover Norquist vs. Steve Bannon as Republicans consider a tax hike on the wealthy. "This is not going to happen," Norquist told me. Bannon says the longtime anti-tax activist "is irrelevant. He doesn't move anything in this city." My new piece: www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

Stefanik could stick around and wait for another senior Trump post. Or she could run for governor of New York next year. “There are tons of opportunities,” she told me. “I have not ruled anything out, nor should I rule anything out.” www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

When Trump called Stefanik to ask her to withdraw her U.N. nomination, he offered her this consolation, people told me: "You're going to get a much bigger job." As one GOP official put it: "The president of the United States fucking owes her." www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

I spoke with Elise Stefanik about her sudden withdrawal as Trump's U.N. nominee last month, her return to the House, and what her future might hold. “I’ve been counted out many times in my political career,” she told me. “This is just Chapter 1.” www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

House GOP leaders say they're thrilled with Musk and DOGE. "The voters are going to reward us," Rep. Richard Hudson, the NRCC chair, told me. But a growing number of rank-and-file members aren't so sure, and they're beginning to speak out: www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

"There needs to be more of a stategic approach." "It needs to more organized, better explained." "Be professional." I talked to House Republicans about Elon Musk and DOGE. Their concerns are growing: www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

Trump’s empowerment of Elon Musk has deepened a widespread sense that in America right now, a wealthy few are governing the many, @russellberman.bsky.social writes. In Time-Travel Thursdays, Berman explores Americans’ generations-long fear of oligarchy: