Som det står nu, har redistricting givet Republikanerne meningsfuldt bedre chancer for ikke at tabe flertallet i Huset ved midtvejsvalget. Jf. Nate Cohn: “(..) while Democrats remain favored, retaking the House is no longer a foregone conclusion.” Andre analytikere udtrykker lignende vurderinger.

Har anmeldt Steffen Kretz’ nye bog i @altingetdk.bsky.social. Den har en hel del kvaliteter, særligt kapitlet om immigrationspolitikken under Trump, men svækkes desværre af lidt for mangelfuld korrektur og for lidt analytisk diskussion.

Demokraterne +10 på generic ballot i ny NPR/Marist-måling (dog et resultat i den høje ende).

Lidt sen Comey-analyse: Sagen er klart vokset ud af Trumps aversion imod ham. Dens juridiske svaghed kombineret med præsidentens angreb på Comey er opskrifter på en tiltale, der ikke er drevet af bekymring for lov og ret, men præsidentens personlige præferencer.

Republicans easily held a state senate seat in Texas today, and significantly overperformed compared to the 2024 elections. In fact, it’s their second largest overperformance of the year, after a February special in Alabama, per @the-downballot.com docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Massivt nederlag for den siddende guvernør.

Givet Graham Platner i Maine overhovedet ikke synes mærket af sine skandaler, bliver det interessant, om dette kommer til at give McMorrow reelle problemer

Afsnit 2 af Projekt Trump: @madsdalgaard.bsky.social og jeg gør vores bedste for at forklare Trumps immigrationspolitik - med fokus på Stephen Miller, ICE-taktikker og Minneapolis’ efterspil:

“A federal grand jury in North Carolina indicted former FBI director James B. Comey — the Justice Department’s latest attempt to criminally charge President Donald Trump’s longtime foe, according to people familiar with the legal proceedings.“

“Across Virginia, majority Black, Hispanic, young and urban precincts had the biggest shifts toward the “yes” campaign relative to Ms. Harris’s margins in 2024 (..). Turnout among those groups, however, had some of the steepest declines from 2025 (..).”

Trumps approval er nu nede på -18,8 ifølge Nate Silvers gennemsnit. 28. februar var den -13,4. Kan opgøres på forskellige måder, men synes evident, at krigen mod Iran og dens effekter har tæret på hans politiske kapital.

Et par nye modeller for midtvejsvalget. Demokraterne er overvældende favoritter til at vinde Huset ifølge The Economist, mens Senatet er næsten 50-50.

Ja-siden vinder Virginias redistrictingafstemning med 3 procentpoint, ser det ud til (som gennemsnittet af målinger indikerede - og tættere, end jeg selv troede).

Et gennemsnit af meningsmålinger foretaget i april til Virginias redistrictingafstemning i morgen (jf. NYT’s oversigt) indikerer, at ja-siden vinder med 3 procentpoint i runde tal. Givet det politiske klima vil jeg gætte på, at ja-sidens sejr ender med at være over +5, potentielt en del over.

Det lader ikke til, at Alito (trods megen spekulation) eller Thomas har planer om at trække sig fra Højesteret i år:

Checking in on some majority-Hispanic areas in the NJ-11 special election. Belleville Township (50.2% Hispanic) 2020: Biden 61-38 (+23) 2024: Harris 51-47 (+4) 2025: Sherrill 63-37 (+26) *** 2026: Mejia 65-35 (+30)

Interessant og vigtig undersøgelse af Votebeat: “Twenty-seven of the 37 respondents said it was at least somewhat likely that the federal government would deploy some form of military or law enforcement at or near polling places in the midterms.”

Har glædet mig til det her: I den kommende tid er jeg vært på Projekt Trump på Altinget - en podcast om Trumps politiske projekt i 10 episoder. @jakobnielsen.bsky.social er naturligvis gæst i første afsnit. Apple: podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/p... Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/1bWe...

Swalwell nu også på vej ud af Huset.

Sen. Ruben Gallego on Eric Swalwell: “He should be expelled from Congress.” “I want to be clear: I had no knowledge of the allegations of assault, harassment, and predatory behavior against Eric Swalwell.” The two have been friends for years.

Lige nu ser det ud, som om Alaska er Demokraternes tredjebedste mulighed for at fravriste GOP et sæde i Senatet (efter Maine og North Carolina).

Swalwell kaster håndklædet i ringen i Californiens guvernørvalg.

”(..) policy-as-politics doesn’t work. (..) The essence of mass politics is engaging with people in civil society — and not just an engaged layer of activists — in a sustained, repeated way that’s visible to fellow citizens with whom they are linked in work and community.“

Overall, Shawn Harris improved upon Kamala Harris's GA-14 margin by 25%. He lost by 12 while she lost by 37. But in the five most Hispanic precincts in the district, he improved upon her margin by a whopping 42%. He won them by 28% while she lost them by 14%.

Wisconsin: I en jordsskredssejr til kandidaten Chris Taylor udvider venstrefløjen majoriteten i delstatens Højesteret fra 4-3 til 5-2.

En sejr til venstrefløjen i Wisconsin ved højesteretsvalget ”vil betyde, at det kommer til at vare lang tid, før de konservative kan få flertallet tilbage, og det falder i øvrigt sammen med, at Wisconsins guvernørembede samt delstatsforsamlingen snart er på spil,” anfører tidl. republikansk strateg.

I anledning af Det Hvide Hus’ nyeste forslag er denne, jeg skrev i februar, måske værd at genlæse: www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/tru...

Medvirkede i Go’ Aften Live i går for at tale om fyringen af Pam Bondi som justitsminister. Kan findes på Play!

“A slim majority of Virginia voters favors a redistricting measure to give Democrats as many as four extra seats in Congress this November, with 52 percent of likely voters saying they support redrawing state political maps and 47 percent opposed (..).”

Talte med Radio IIII tidligere om Trumps Irantale.

President Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi on Thursday, removing the nation’s top law enforcement officer after privately venting his frustrations for months over her handling of the Epstein files and her failed efforts to prosecute his political enemies.

Pam Bondi kan være på vej ud: “President Donald Trump has informed Pam Bondi that her time as his attorney general is nearing an end, multiple sources familiar with the situation told Semafor.”

“Based on the briefs, scotusbot, The Economist’s model forecasting Supreme Court rulings, agrees the administration will lose—by a vote of 5-4 or 6-3.”

Trump er nu nominelt under 40 % i approval rating ifølge Nate Silvers gennemsnit og nominelt over 57 % i disapproval rating. Hans net approval var 28. februar -13,4, mens den nu er -17,4.

“Democratic challenges pale in comparison to those facing the GOP, which has jettisoned its principles, attaching itself to a president who promised to lower prices, then delivered steep tariffs and an unexplained war of choice in the Mideast that sent prices at the pump soaring.“

Sabato’s Crystal Ball rykker vurderingen af 11 kongresdistrikter i en demokratisk retning, omend de fleste går fra at være “sandsynlige” til “sikre.“

“Nearly one month into the war, the president has privately informed advisers he thinks the conflict is in its final stages, urging them to stick to the four-to-six-week timeline he has outlined publicly, according to people familiar with the matter.

Demokraterne vinder to af tre specialvalg i Florida, begge i Trump-distrikter og inklusiv dette, der kuriøst nok indbefatter Mar-a-lago. De overpræsterer ikke overraskende ift. 2024, men med blandede marginer. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

“An Iranian source told CNN on Tuesday that there had been “outreach” between the United States and Tehran and that Iran is willing to listen to “sustainable” proposals to end the war.“

Lidt mere om republikanernes opbakning til krigen i Iran, og hvad kritikken fra højrefløjen - fra Joe Kent over Tucker Carlson til MTG - faktisk kan betyde, selvom Trump har stor opbakning på spørgsmålet. Interviewer blandt andet Andrew Day fra The American Conservative:

Interessante ting i ny CBS-måling. Blandt andet: 63 % mener, at Trump med hensyn til Iran gør “Different things from what he promised in the campaign.” 37 % mener omvendt, at Trump gør “The same things he promised in the campaign.”

NEW: After three weeks of war, the Trump administration has begun initial discussions on the next phase and what peace talks with Iran might look like.

NEWS: Pentagon officials have made detailed preparations for deploying U.S. ground forces into Iran, multiple sources told @cbsnews.com www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-a...

Diskuterede noget af det, Reuters her rapporterer, med Shashank Joshi i begyndelsen af ugen:

Ros til Joe Kent fra Tucker Carlson: “Joe is the bravest man I know, and he can’t be dismissed as a nut,” Mr. Carlson said in a brief interview. “He’s leaving a job that gave him access to highest-level relevant intelligence. The neocons will now try to destroy him for that.”

Counterintelligence official’s resignation reflects MAGA rift over Iran www.semafor.com/article/03/1...

“The agency also let go of staffers with close professional relationships at oil and gas companies in the Middle East and experts tasked with maintaining diplomatic contacts at foreign energy bureaus.”

Nyhedsbrevet i dag: Jeg har talt med @shashj.bsky.social, forsvarsredaktør på The Economist, om status på Irankrigen, mulighederne for en landoperation og hvorfor Trump muligvis snart afslutter krigen. Læs med her (billede fra München 2025) usapol.dk/forsvarsreda...

Why hasn't Trump received a "rally around the flag" bump in his approval rating? I made every presidential approval chart you could ever want to explain www.gelliottmorris.com/p/i-graphed-...

”Vice President JD Vance was skeptical of the U.S. striking Iran in the leadup to President Donald Trump’s decision to launch the war, two senior Trump officials told POLITICO.”