💥Online first: "Communicating a common front: mainstream party rhetoric and affective polarisation towards the radical right" by @markuskollberg.bsky.social & @ivobantel.bsky.social doi.org/10.1080/0140...

Very happy to see our new paper out in WEP. We document that rhetorically countering the Radical Right requires mainstream parties to form a common front to be effective. Full paper (open access): www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.... Highlights in the thread below.

Bargaining with authoritarians is doomed to fail. Excellent piece by @dziblatt.bsky.social and must read.

Important finding for Social Democratic parties. Danish Social Democrats – often used as an example why Social Democratic parties should adopt anti-immigrant positions for electoral success! – could have won policy support for a pro-immigrant platform if their messaging were framed in moral terms.

New paper by Markus Kollberg in @psrm.bsky.social. Mainstream populism doesn't work (i.e. doesn't influence voter evaluations of parties)! Might also be relevant for some current political actors actors.

Some thoughts and pointers on the upcoming German elections on Sunday. Nearly all polling institutes have released final polls in the last days that show a very similar picture. It is nearly certain that the CDU/CSU will come out on top and Friedrich Merz is going to be the next Chancellor. 1/

🧵1/X As #Trump takes office today, @ivobantel.bsky.social and I comment for the @the-independent.com how Trump has radicalised and is a threat to #climate action and #democracy - why it's in the interest of other governments to collaborate and call his bluffs. www.independent.co.uk/voices/trump...

New study by @nickbichay.bsky.social Radical-Right parties participating in elections disenchant and demobilize voters, endangering (not "correcting") democracy! RR participation in elections is associated with lower(!) turnout. But don't RR parties bring non-voters to the ballots? Not really.

Europe is at a juncture where political resistance to decarbonisation is mounting and where budgetary means to buy off consent are becoming scarce, at both EU and national levels. To get the Green Deal done, a new investment strategy is needed www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...

A good explainer of the surprising first round of Romanian Presidential Elections (1st round) and, importantly, the implications.

Yes, X demotes link posts; been that way for a while www.mediaite.com/news/elon-mu... Huge pain for news orgs. Source told me NYT's X traffic plunged 50% in 1 month www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2... X also delays sites Elon dislikes, as we first reported www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...

The victory march of democracy has ended What can we as researchers do? In the Scandinavian countries, a particular tool is available: Democracy & Power Studies. The Danish government appointed me as director of such a study. We started our work this year. A 🧵 on what we do & how we do it 1/8

A mapping of how Bluesky is becoming the new Scientific Twitter mikeyoungacademy.dk/bluesky-is-e...

Protests against the far-right reduce far-right voting through media exposure (here: study in France). A similar effect was likely the reason why AfD polled lower during/after large German anti-AfD protests.

FDP plante Bruch der Ampel unter der Bezeichnung der Operation für die Befreiung der Normandie von Nazi-Deutschland! Verantwortungsloses Verhalten kann zusätzlich auch noch geschichtsvergessen und geschmacklos par excellence sein. #DDayGate

Das Gender Pay Gap beträgt in diesem Jahr unverändert 18%. Der Gender Pay-Gap ist auch im europäischen Vergleich sehr hoch und reflektiert Arbeitsmarktstrukturen, die Frauen systematisch benachteiligt. www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pr...

High-ranking AfD politicians (including the personal assistant to Alice Weidel, one of the AfD's chairs) met with neo-Nazis and potential funders in November, as @correctiv.org uncovers. They fund-raised for a big plan: expelling "not assimilated" German citizens and weakening democracy. 1/

📊 New polling analysis by the POLITICO Research & Analysis Division for the 2024 European Parliament election 🗓 5 months ahead of the EP election Nisa Khan, Rodrigo Gutierrez & I crunched the data and present the latest polling trends. #EuropeanPolitics #EU2024 1/

I'm new here – but still occasionally posting about tax gov and international politics!

New to Bluesky 😉 Trying to connect with people who study tropical / cold-water corals 🪸, climate change, ocean acidification, anthropogenic impacts on the marine environment... 🌊 🐋🐬🦈🦭🐟🦀🦑🐙🪼🦞🐚

Warum teilen Menschen Verschwörungserzählungen? Eine großartige Übersicht über einige der Gründe von Pia Lamberty.

Important bluesky update - posts can now be publicly viewed (i.e. without an account), and thus used as a source, e.g. for journalists. Another reason not to cite X. 😉

The Dutch elections have implications beyond the Netherlands – but not as you might expect! The PVV's result provides a stark warning sign, showing the results of the centre-right legitimising and thereby normalising anti-pluralist Radical Right parties!

Are Millennials worse off than Baby Boomers? This AJS piece argues: that question & focus on 'average' cohort experiences is misleading or meaningless. The real story is "rising inequality within cohorts: middle class Millennials are doing better, working class Millennials often doing worse."

New report by @vollcornhirsch.bsky.social, Rodrigo Ignacio Gutierrez and me is out. 💡 We look at the seat projection for the 2024 EP elections according to POLITICO's Poll of Polls (key takeaways below). 🗳️ We also analyze commitment to (political) pluralism – which, concerningly, is declining. 1/

New report by @vollcornhirsch.bsky.social, Rodrigo Ignacio Gutierrez and me is out. 💡 We look at the seat projection for the 2024 EP elections according to POLITICO's Poll of Polls (key takeaways below). 🗳️ We also analyze commitment to (political) pluralism – which, concerningly, is declining. 1/

Hello bluesky world (again)! X and I are officially breaking up. Moving my posts here (check out this brilliant tool: tinyurl.com/xtobsky) requires a new account to avoid followers' timelines being spammed (@ivoba.bsky.social will be inactive). So here we go.

My partner and his family are from Maine, he works closely w/ organizations based in Portland. Last night we both got on X for the first time in months hoping that there might be some chance it could still work as a realtime news source when we didn’t see much here. The answer, absolutely not.

New book by @saengler.bsky.social on Centrist anti-establishment parties (think IT's M5S or CZ's ANO). It highlights these parties' immense success, survival strategies and concludes that, in the long run, ideology remains key! Looks amazing, looking forward to a fascinating read!

How do Ukrainians think about self-defense against Russia? In a new paper out in the AJPS, @janinadill.bsky.social, Marnie Howlett and I find through a conjoint experiment that they are categorically against major concessions, even at very high costs of self-defense doi.org/10.1111/ajps... (1/6)

Polish elections, despite favoring PiS, yielded an opposition majority. But a core tenet of democracy isn't certain: peaceful power transfer! This excellent (pre-election) analysis outlines how PiS might prevent power transfer and should now caution against early celebrations: tinyurl.com/verfblpol

Dive into the world of multilingual text analysis? @haukelicht.bsky.social and I wrote this paper as a first go-to resource for a comprehensive overview of research design considerations. Big thanks to the editors @marikenvelden.bsky.social, Martijn Schoonvelde, Christian Baden of the special issue!

As polisky awaits the election results in Poland, and later in Switzerland & Argentina, let’s revisit the three basic things that politicians committed to democracy must always do—outlined by Juan Linz and beautifully illustrated in Levitsky/ @dziblatt.bsky.social‘s excellent book. Here‘s the list ↓

Richten wir uns mal ein in unserem neuen Wohnzimmer 🛋️ 👉 Wie finde ich alte Follower? 👉 Gibt es "Tweetdeck" noch? 👉 Wie erstelle ich "Listen"? 👉 Und wie werd ich Trolle & Spammer los? Eine kleine und hoffentlich hilfreiche Übersicht für den Start auf Bluesky 🧵 ohne Anspruch auf Vollständigkeit!

Das eigentliche Problem des Mainstreaming der Rechtsradikalen ist nicht deren Wahlergebnisse, sondern deren Akzeptanz über die eigene Klientel hinaus. Denn das bereitet den Weg der Zusammenarbeit, der Etablierung und letztlich des Rückbaus der Demokratie.

A small reminder: why I registered @vonderleyen.bsky.social on Bluesky yesterday and how you can use your own (sub)domain on Bluesky as a means of quasi verification to stop someone spoofing you euroblog.jonworth.eu/ursula-von-d...

🗳️ 🇪🇺 What if the European Parliament election were held today? Once a month, I take a closer look at the polling trends from across the 27 EU countries based on POLITICO Poll of Polls data and the POLITICO Research & Analysis Division report. Here are my 5 takeaways:🧵

In Bavaria and Hessen, the AfD has been strongest among middle-aged voters. However, the party could make large gains among very young voters too, especially in Bavaria. Only people older than 70 still show relatively low support for the far-right. Among the oldest, the CDU and CSU still dominate.

Come join our @delorsberlin.bsky.social team! We have a very exciting vacancy for Policy Fellow for EU Democracy. If you are fascinated by Spitzenkandidaten, electoral reform and other 🇪🇺 institutional questions, this position is for you: hertie-school.dvinci-easy.com/en/p/en/jobs... Deadline 15.10.!

Check out this new special issue in Electoral Studies: www.sciencedirect.com/journal/elec... It contains 7 cool articles on the nature and causes of AP - using observational and experimental data, focusing on measurement, elites and ideology, and an important theoretical piece as well.

this divide could signal conflict over democratic values. While contested democracy is bad news, affective rejection of anti-democratic actors could even safeguard democracy by curbing anti-democratic challengers' electoral success. (9/9)

What are the implications? Chiefly, it enriches our perspective on AP. Although often seen to threaten democracy, it might be more ambiguous. The Radical Right frequently clashes with liberal democracy. As the Radical Right divide depends on Radical Right voting, (8/9) https://t.co/9yWcs5CTwB

What should we (not) learn from this? AP is more than affective partisanship. Dynamic – not static! – camp divisions account for a sizeable portion of out-party AP. BUT these relations are correlational, not causal (and naturally there is a bunch of other limitations 😉). (7/9)

Next, I demonstrate the affective relevance of two divides – and that it varies with context. AP across the Left/Right divide is higher (controlling for a range of factors, incl. ideological distance). However, this link disappears when Left and Right parties co-govern. (4/9) https://t.co/X86JcVlv0e

To empirically support this, I first quantify descriptively how much camp divisions matter for variance in out-party affect. AP is higher across the Left/Right divide, the Radial Right divide, and the Radical Left divide (and with ideological distance). (3/9) https://t.co/S6pVOY9krf

We often consider AP in party-based terms. I argue AP goes beyond partisanship-based rejection: camp divides overlay partisan demarcations. Yet, they aren't always affectively charged – their affective relevance varies with political context (2/9) https://t.co/BM2WgL5evH

Will #ScienceTwitter -> #ScienceMastodon work? Some tricks to make it work for you (of course on Mastodon 😉 https://t.co/NRw4LHwrOg) https://t.co/oNqfGiXXNj

Great line-up! Already looking forward to great presentations, an engaging workshop, and plenty of coffee breaks. (Link to register in thread.) https://t.co/meN5SxaMtR

Sat 13:10 (Room Club C): the panel "Measuring and conceptualizing affective polarization beyond the US", chaired by @HayleeKelsall, features papers by @PepComellas, @LuanaRusso_UM & @SabrinaJMayer, Daniel Balinhas, and João Areal. 3/4