California DMV has narrowed its request to an in-state production halt of at least 30 days, asking for a follow up hearing to determine financial restitution for false advertising. In the meantime, the OAH judge's decision is due November 26th. $TSLA

$MSTR “mnav” below 1.2. At this rate may be below 1 by end of month, just in time to need cash for pref payments. Run rate on prefs + convert coupons is ~$700m annually now.

JB Pritzker Polymarket odds for 2028 Dem nominee are very cheap at 2% if this happens.

Ethanol is a great anti-knocking agent, replacing (very toxic) tetraethyllead. 100% gasoline blend isn’t an option. It’s also cheap, efficient, and can be integrated with carbon capture & storage. Using half of our soybean crop for fuel (biodiesel + renewable diesel) however, is the real scandal.

Biggest question in my mind is if these shares will ever vest. Is the stock price going to be above $23 in 2027? The company could easily be kicked out of the s&p 500 by then after accumulating >1 year of - p&l

Good morning from Oakland and the Office of Administrative Hearings, where we are resuming the hearing in the matter of the California DMV's complaint against Tesla for misleading advertising of its Autopilot and "Full Self-Driving Capability." First up we will hear from witness Bryant Walker Smith.

Hard to believe that the CA DMV false advertising lawsuit against Tesla is actually getting its hearing with the OAH in just over 1 week. As a reminder, the remedies that DMV is seeking here are 1) suspension of Tesla's dealer license, and 2) restitution for harmed persons.

Pretty darn close to free $ available on quite a few Tesla related betting markets. Liquidity isn't great, but you can deploy a decent amount of lunch money across a few of these. Also nice to get paid for making bets on Tesla failures, which is decidedly less rewarding in the stock market.

Amusing hang up for Tesla counsel in the CA DMV lawsuit. cc @montanaskeptic.bsky.social

Port of LA inbound volumes. 60% of these ships are coming from China. Seems like a narrative violation. Did Trump tell the big box retailers that the tariffs would be taken down by mid-May when he met with them two weeks ago?

The very high probability that SCOTUS rejects Trump’s authority to implement tariffs under IEEPA this summer feels under covered.

Observations from the last two weeks: - Israel now has 2 of our 7 THAAD batteries - Half of our mission ready B2 bombers have been moved to Diego Garcia - A second carrier strike group was deployed to the Middle East - A fleet of F35s sent to Jordan - An unplanned meeting with Netanyahu today

One of the defining feelings in American life, for decades now, is elites doing plainly criminal shit and nothing at all happening as a result. It is deranging in a way that virtually nothing else is. Media fixates on perceived street lawlessness but shit like this matters much more in my opinion.

If blue state governors want to be taken seriously as "rule of law" alternatives to Trump's GOP, enforcing basic false advertising laws against Musk's companies would be a great place to start. Tesla has been selling an L2 ADAS as "Full Self Driving" in Illinois for ~10 years. Hope that helps.

Re: margin debt, Musk apparently had *none* as of Q1 last year, when Tesla filed its annual report. Screencap below. Despite all the pledged shares. He sold a lot of stock in 2022 - more than needed for Twitter and taxes. Linked here: www.sec.gov/Archives/edg... cc: @montanaskeptic.bsky.social

If you hate this, just wait until aluminum oxide buildup in the ionosphere from expired Starlink satellites begins disturbing the magnetosphere. Exploded rockets are bad, but a weakened magnesosphere and resulting loss of atmosphere endangers all life on earth.

Did Trump just kill the export market for US defense contractors? Why buy US equipment if Trump might simply disable it if he prefers for you to surrender?

American farmers having fun

Coffee: OI has collapsed in the prompt months, and some differentials have gone negative. Typically see both after a bull market has culminated. On the other hand, soil moisture is very low and forecast to decline further. There will be impairment to the 2026/27 crop if this persist.

Quite the pivot for Newsom since the CA wildfires. From organizing special #ResistTrump legislative sessions in November to deferential public statements about Trump, and now hosting MAGA folks on presumably friendly terms for a podcast. www.politico.com/news/2025/02...

California is also about to lose its EPA waiver to administer Advanced Clean Cars II, which underpins the state’s ZEV mandate. CA state-level EV credits have been estimated to be worth $1,500-2,000 per vehicle. www.epa.gov/newsreleases...

$SBUX made the interesting decision in Q4 to *further reduce* green coffee inventory, futures hedges, and fixed price purchase agreements.

NHTSA's target duration for recall queries is 120 days. It has been 257 days since the agency opened its autopilot recall query. I think the odds are reasonably high that it has already shared its findings with Tesla.

Won’t be surprised if @fetterman.senate.gov loses his seat over this in 2026.

I think this is far more plausible than the theory that Musk pivoted right to avoid legal liability. At least the SEC attempted to enforce Musk’s consent decree under the last Trump administration. He has enjoyed operating above the law for the last four years.

It's clear that the preferred outcome for Biden and Katherine Tai here is a domestic unionized monopoly in certain steel products, whether through acquisition by Cliffs or outright $X blast furnace plant shutdowns. US manufacturers (esp the auto industry) are going to love that!

A new high water mark for Tesla L2 ADAS accidents reported to NHTSA in October.

US Steel should just file WARN notices for the PA blast furnace plants already. An unfortunate final example of FAFO for the administration.

Men will literally shoot people in the street rather than get physical therapy.

It'll be interesting to see what resolution NHTSA staff decide to push for in the final weeks of the Biden admin wrt the current recall query. It seems safe to assume that Tesla will not issue any voluntary recalls before 1/20, so it's public hearing or court request if they want to take action.

Newsom protected Tesla from facing autopilot / FSD liability in CA for years. It's clear that he now feels that he has sufficient political will to go after the company as part of his #resistance campaign. The DMV false advertising lawsuit has a hearing scheduled with CA OAH in Q3 '25.

Bullwhip effect coming in state budgets as the last of Elementary and Secondary School Relief funds spent

Daily Linkup 10k and Indeed new job postings have been plunging over the past 6 weeks

Looking at a recent cut of order rate estimates for Tesla this quarter: 1) USA overall tracking weaker than Q3 2) Surprising nobody, Cybertruck new orders are still tracking towards zero, despite the ~$20k price cut last month.

Another fatality was included in this month's standing order data for Tesla. It was probably this accident: www.nj.com/mercer/2024/... The Tesla was going 76mph in a 35mph zone.

Tesla L2 ADAS accidents reported to NHTSA

Nippon / US Steel $X acquisition - Biden vowed to block, but only tool is CFIUS (antitrust risk easily mitigated thru sale of AM/NS Calvert) - CFIUS (12 person cabinet panel) requires unanimity to block - CFIUS last action was re-filing request, extending review deadline past election to Dec 22

Tesla's loss of the EV tax credit will be partially offset by higher realized prices of CA ZEV credits. That is, unless Congress and the Trump administration also target California's EPA waiver for Advanced Clean Fleets, which underpins its EV mandate.

Hearing set with CA OAH for next July in the DMV false advertising lawsuit against Tesla (FSD & Autopilot). This hearing had been set for September of this year, but was postponed to 2025 (I suspect by Newsom's office to avoid headline risk into potential presidential campaign).

Arabica coffee situation: - Multiple years of crop impairment (22/23, 25/26) due to combination of heat and low precipitation - Recent Brazil productivity gains were driven by planting density, which exacerbates "thirsty tree" problem - Precipitation patterns may have permanently changed in Brazil

NHTSA has been made aware of innumerable examples of FSD veering into oncoming traffic, running stops, hitting simulated pedestrians, and other critical defects by Dan O'Dowd and others over the past several years. It only decided to open up a preliminary evaluation *after* a confirmed fatality.

What are we to make of the fact that Musk is doing this right under the nose of SEC and DOJ investigations into embezzlement and self dealing? WSJ reported these investigations last year, *months before* the diverted NVIDIA chips, talent poaching, and now FSD IP transfer discussion.

China floor space starts on the left; currently running at 2009 levels. Completions on the right. Still tracking around the 5 year average. A yawning gap for commodity demand in the year ahead.

California carbon allowances - Current price $32 - CARB cutting supply caps from 40% reduction target to 48% by 2030 - CARB also raising APCR and price ceiling levels materially - Additional credit bank adjustments possible (likely)?

Ouching like when a bag of money falls on your head? https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-short-sellers-will-be-ouching-like-they-did-in-april-warns-saudi-energy-minister-be7c849f

Hello, dumb macro tourist here. Is there a podcast / substack that explains why USA regional banks are uniquely exposed to deposit flight and markdowns on their held to maturity book? Drawdown has been much larger in European FI, for example, due to lower initial rates. cc @weisenthal.bsky.social

For a quick pick me up, try pouring hydrogen peroxide in your ears - it's like soaking your brain in Perrier. Not sure it's helping with my ear infection, but I do feel that I'm closer to understanding ASMR.

The funniest detail about Elizabeth Holmes is that - in the days leading up to her trial - she had a Husky that she told everyone was actually a wolf.