Insane temperature contrasts in Europe! -30 °C in Lithuania, 20 °C on the Mediterranean. A 20-degree difference even in Germany. @kachelmannwetter.com

This synoptic pattern in turn favors a sustained disturbance of the polar vortex in the stratosphere. A major SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) is possible in early/mid-February, which increases the likelihood of extensive cold air outbreaks extending into March. weatheriscool.com

The WACC pattern (Warm Arctic Cold Continents) with a wavy jet stream, negative NAO phase, and tendency toward blocking is highly likely to persist for an extended period of time. Significant temperature anomalies (+/-) are therefore still possible over Eurasia and North America well into February.

Evolution of cyclone #Leonie in #Germany, from a radar perspective, including reports. Heavy snowfall and dangerous black ice in parts of the country.

Neuschnee und Glatteis legen den Verkehr in Deutschland heute morgen gebietsweise lahm. Reichlich Neuschnee (10-30 cm) gab es in Teilen Süddeutschlands und in der Mitte, im Osten und Nordosten dagegen Glatteis durch gefrierenden Regen, wie die DWD-Usermeldungen darlegen. #Schnee #Glatteis #Winter

Very strong warm-core spinup over the eastern Atlantic on Thursday! The resulting storm cyclone will achieve a strength comparable to a Category 1+ hurricane. As it weakens, it will later also affect western France and southwestern England. #severeweather #meteorology #weather #forecast 1/2

A multi-hazard extreme weather event threatens the western and central #Mediterranean at the beginning of next week due to #StormHarry. In addition to torrential rainfall, hurricane-force winds and extreme high waves are to be expected. A very dangerous situation! #severeweather

Wie immer bei Unwetterlagen werden die Warnungen als zu übertrieben angesehen. Aber ist das wirklich so? Hier sieht man mal den Ablauf der Lage bis zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt anhand der Nutzermeldunge. Man sieht verbreitet eine Glättesituation, aber natürlich auch regionale Unterschiede. 1/5

Sowohl die Unwetterwarnungen als auch die darauf aufbauenden präventiven Maßnahmen inkl. der Einschränkung der Präsenzpflicht an den Schulen waren gerechtfertigt! Die Kritik daran ist selten sachlich oder fachlich fundiert, sondern spiegeln ein grassierendes soziales Phänomen wider. Ein Thread 🧵 1/x

Der erste Schwung #Unwetterwarnung vor #Glatteis ist von den Kollegen des @dwdderwetterdienst.bsky.social herausgegeben worden. Auch bitte den Clip zur Kenntnis nehmen: youtu.be/5TSB69JnJ-4?.... Es wird nicht überall gleich heftig, Vorkehrungen sollten aber unbedingt getroffen werden.

Achtung: Für Deutschland steht die nächste Unwetterlage an! Ab Montagfrüh bis in den Dienstag hinein sorgt gefrierender Regen von West nach Ost recht verbreitet für Glatteis! Die im Vergleich zu "Schneesturm ELLI" geringere mediale Anteilnahme sollte nicht über die pot. große Gefahr hinwegtäuschen.

Significant windstorm possible in Western and Central Europe on Friday! The IFS EFI already has distinct signs of this. In addition, heavy snowfall and snow drifts are possible in the transition zone to the winter air mass. #Weather #Storm #Snow

Freezing temperatures this morning in parts of Western and Central Europe. Especially in a band stretching from central France across the Alpine region and southern Germany to Czechia and Slovakia, temperatures are frequently below -10 °C, and in some places even below -20 °C. #Winter #Weather

Böllerst du laut 🎆, denkst du leise 😴! In diesem Sinne, einen guten Rutsch! 😊 #SicherInsNeueJahr #Böllerciao

2025 is in the climate books. 3rd warmest after 2023 and 2024 or tied 2nd warmest after 2024 (preliminary). The trend continues to be up, even tho it is within the expected range of warming given the known external factors. Below the HadCRUT5 dataset ... www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcr... (1/2)

Interessant! Die "Meereshitzewelle" 2023/24 war eher kein Klimasprung, sondern Resultat interner Variabilität. Aber: Die Daten deuten darauf hin, dass das Klimasystem (noch)sensitiver gegenüber Antrieben sein könnte und die tieferliegende Erwärmung eventuell von den Modellen unterschätzt wird.

Cloud structure characteristic of increased mineral dust concentration over the central Mediterranean. The so-called “Saharan Air Layer” (SAL) is located at an altitude of between 3 and 4 km, as illustrated by the backward trajectories based on GFS data.

2025 wird nach zwei feuchten Jahren wohl wieder ein sehr trockenes. Während nur im Südwesten größere Gebiete eine ausgeglichene Bilanz (90-110 %) aufzuweisen haben und es regional sogar zu feucht war (>110 %), war es sonst vielfach sehr trocken (<70 %). Hier die angeeichten DWD-Radardaten.

When things get boring down below, it's sometimes worth taking a look from above: Orographic and shear-induced gravity waves at the top of a shallow stratus cloud layer, seen from MTG.

Winter has been completely banished from Europe for a while.

A change in the weather pattern is imminent! Around Christmas, a blocking will build up over N Europe, causing the westerly drift over W/C Europe to subside (transition to NAO-). However, due to the warm weather in recent weeks and poor snow cover, no significant onset of winter is expected yet.

Potential Shapiro-Keyser-Cyclone >> #StormBram << on Tuesday, according to the @dwdderwetterdienst.bsky.social forecast! Due to a rapid cyclogenesis the minimum surface pressure could drop below 960 hPa with serious impacts especially for Ireland and Scotland. But note the uncertainty (spread)!

In the medium range, there is an enhanced risk of significant #storms over Western #Europe. Increasing horizontal temperature gradients are leading to a massive upper-level jet streak, at the left exit of which rapid “bombogenesis” is possible. This is associated with a potential positive NAO phase.

Freezing cold in Central Europe! Severe frost in Germany with lows of up to -18 °C. Regionally, the coldest November night in 20 years. A temperature of -34 °C was measured at Funtensee (a high-altitude karst lake @kachelmannwetter.com)

Record warm November day in southwestern #Germany. Temperatures above 20 °C, despite sunshine obscured by mineral dust. #temperature #records #weather

Very bad news for Central #Vietnam! The region, which is already suffering from violent floods, could experience a strong #Typhoon [ #Kalmaegi ] with torrential rain again in a few days. This could then be too much water even for the flood-proven country (?)

The (possible record-breaking) Canarian #heat bubble (up to 35 °C!) will be sucked in by powerful Atlantic cyclones and carried as far as W-/C-Europe. By the middle of next week, temperatures of around 20 °C and locally around 25 °C are possible there too. #summerlike #weather #forecast #extreme

#Hurricane #Melissa from a #radar perspective. At first glance, the images may not be as stunning as the satellite images of the storm, but they impressively show how Melissa developed into an almost perfect storm with an almost perfect eye wall.

Hurricane Melissa has just broken the record for the driest eye ever observed in a tropical cyclone, with a temperature of -4.75°C. This is nothing short of astronomical.

That doesn't look good...

The #severe #storm for parts of Western and Central #Europe has been named by @meteofrance.com: #Benjamin. It temporarily has the characteristics of a Shapiro-Keyser-Cyclone. The @dwdderwetterdienst.bsky.social forecast takes this into account with a frontal fracture.

The first significant autumn storm is expected to hit parts of western and central Europe over the course of the week. It could be an unusually strong storm for this time of the year. At least that's what the EFI of the IFS indicates. #severe #weather #forecast

Further (extreme) heavy rainfall and floods for parts of #Spain due to #DANA (=Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos) #Alice. After #Tarragona was affected yesterday, this time it is the region south of #Valencia and #Amposta. The satellite image shows a two huge, stationary storm systems.

Potentially dangerous hybrid storm for the Southeast/East US starting this weekend? Frontal zone/trough could interact constructively with (sub-)tropical disturbance. Also interaction with future Tropical Storm Jerry? (->steering/moisture transport!). But very uncertain due to its complexity!

During the week an omega blocking pattern will build up. It sets up quite far to the west, so that the large-scale circulation “ATR” (Altantic Ridge) is favored. This will bring calm weather to large parts of W/C-Europe and unsettled weather with heavy precipitation to the southeast and east.

Updated #tornado statistics and illustrations from #Germany from our colleague @meteomabe.bsky.social.

Something to monitor for the Caribbean: Invest #I95L has a high probability of cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. The models suggest that the system could become a #hurricane as it nears the Lesser Antilles in the next 3-4 days. #tropicalweather www.polarwx.com/tropical/?st...

We live in a time when truth becomes satire and satire becomes truth.

Maxima partly above 30 degree, potential for severe weather. That is sth that doesn't necessarily sound like beginning of the third decade of September. Maps look more like midsummer autumn.

Europe's #autumn visit: '#Zack' causes unstable, stormy conditions, especially in Central #Europe. But: #summer will arrive again at the weekend, including (extreme) high temperatures and storms. #weather #forecast #windstorm

Wonderful example of a line oft storms within which several spin-ups (rapidly forming embedded mesocyclones) occur. This just happened in eastern Germany. The risk of tornadoes was increased. #SevereWeather #Tornado #Supercell #Storms

An einigen Orten im Westen Deutschlands hat es an einem Septembertag noch nie so viel geregnet wie in den letzten 24 Stunden. Stationen mit Datenreihen >50 Jahre Winterspelt (seit 1951) Berus (seit 1951) Jülich (seit 1894) Merzig (seit 1941) Lauperath (seit 1953) Manderscheid (seit 1962)

UPDATE: Official 12-hourly precipitation data, 09/09/25, 6 UTC. Highest amounts: Bedburg (Germany) 134 mm Luxembourg Airport 122 mm Mönchengladbach (Germany) 122 mm

Extremely heavy rain in western Germany. North of the Eifel, in the greater Mönchengladbach area, 100-130 l/m² dropped in 6 hours. The highest warning level of the weather service is in force, and there is also a local threat of major flooding. #severeweather #floods

The national weather services are now taking action in response to the threat and have raised their warnings to the second-highest level (France, Luxembourg, Germany). #severeweather #floods #heavyrain

A very humid air with an elevated mixed layer (EML), combined with strong synoptic forcing, leads to a hybrid (partly stratiform, partly convective) heavy rainfall event in NE France, W Germany and BeNeLux during the night of Tuesday and Tuesday morning. #SevereWeather #Floods

There are increasing signs that a pot. severe convective situation could develop in Western Europe today. Supercells could develop in moderately unstable but extremely sheared subtropical air with increased #tornado risk in places. The focus appears to be on NE France, Belgium and the Netherlands.

"Der Sommer war ja ziemlich wechselhaft und kühl" - so oder so ähnlich hört man es häufig. Wechselhaft: Ja! Aber kühl?! Vor dem Jahr 2000 hätte ein Sommer wie 2025 zu den heißesten überhaupt gehört! Ein Extremereignis, dass erst durch die Klimaerwärmung der letzten 25 Jahre quasi normalisiert wurde.

Tomorrow evening there is a slightly enhanced risk of a #tornado or two over Benelux and north-eastern France! Very prominent low-level shear and veering overlapping with weak/moderate instability. Strong forcing is possible just ahead of the approaching cold front. Sounding: @kachelmannwetter.com

Last 24 hours: Landslide Sudan: >1000 fatalities Floods & earthquakes Afghanistan: >1000 fatalities Floods Pakistan: >800 fatalities What a pitch-black day... 😞