IRGC targets Turkey with ballistic missile. Erdogan invested a good deal in trying to befriend the Islamic Republic - this is the price he pays for hedging But is this the reason why Ankara may join the war against Iran? William Doran and my latest for The National Interest & FDD

Live from the studios of FDD is the Morning Brief: Featuring your's truly & none other than the redoubtable 🔥Jon Schanzer🔥 We are talking about everything 🇹🇷 !!! - Who controls TR after Erdowan - Ankara's praise of Tehran - 🇹🇷 militarization of the Horn & PMC's and more...

During the Syrian civil war 1000’s 🇹🇷 nationals joined ISIS & over 40K foreign fighters were permitted to transit 🇹🇷’s “jihadi highway” to join the “cause” unhindered Now Ankara has to repatriate its ISIS brethren. My latest for FDD w/Ahmad Sharawi

Turkey's leadership succession strategy is in full swing Erdogan is building an AKP cabinet to ease Bilal's transition to the presidency This is bad news for 🇹🇷 opposition. Why? Read our latest for @TheNatlInterest & @FDD 👇

Turkey leaves the Board of Peace meeting empty handed. No Turkish troops in the ISF But why was Ankara denied its long-held desire to position troops in Gaza? I explained for @f24debate.france24.com 👇

Who else will send troops but those invested in Gaza’s security? As Board of Peace summit kicks off, @sinanciddi.bsky.social warns of risks to neighbouring countries. More in #F24Spotlight

As Iran continues to decline, how is 🇹🇷 intend to become the region's premier military and political power? I examine Ankara's various strategies & approaches for @emet4u.bsky.social "Talking Turkey: Impediment to Further Progress in the Middle East" youtu.be/Eza1KRLd2dU

Why is 🇹🇷 throwing the kitchen sink to prevent US military action against Iran? I explain @i24news.bsky.social 👇

Tehran has some bad habits. Chief among them is the regime's nuclear and chemical weapons program Guess which neighboring country is also considering the acquisition of nuclear weapons? My latest for Long War Journal w/my FDD colleague Will Doran

Turkey declares it will not leave Syria If I got a $1 for every time I said this in 2025 and have people not believe me, I'd be a rich man My latest policy brief co-authored w/my FDD colleague Ahmad Sharawi

NATO ally or Iran enabler? As Tehran teeters, Turkey isn’t helping bring down the mullahs — it’s helping them Erdogan fears a free Iran more than a tyrannical one. Washington must wake up to Ankara’s dangerous game. My latest for NYPost column w/ William Doran

🔥Out tomorrow: February 3 🔥 Who will succeed Erdogan as 🇹🇷 next President? Who are the contenders, what are rules, and what are the implications? FDD's signature research that I have worked on w/ my colleague Will Doran will be available to download 6am EST 2/3

If Washington takes military action against the regime in Tehran, 🇹🇷 will work to protect the mullahs Read our latest for Washington Examiner to understand why👇

In my latest policy brief for @FDD I argue “Given the persistence of the Venezuelan regime, Maduro’s personal fate should not constitute grounds for granting Turkey immunity for violations of U.S. sanctions” www.fdd.org/analysis/202...

In our final piece for 2025 for @NewYorkSun my @FDD colleague Will Doran explore 🇹🇷 growing embrace of nuclear-armed 🇵🇰 isn’t benign commerce—it’s strategic positioning. Energy deals, drone production, and...1/2

🇹🇷 lashes out at a deepening 🇬🇷 🇨🇾 🇮🇱security partnership born out of the Dec. 22 Jerusalem summit — a move Ankara sees as encirclement, but w/signals a strategic pushback against 🇹🇷 irredentism...1/3 Our latest policy brief for FDD w/Will Doran www.fdd.org/analysis/202...

Reporting that Erdogan wants Putin to take back S-400s. And my question is why would Putin agree to that? The benefits of keeping Turkey and the US at odds is, intrinsically, a win. And was from the moment that Erdogan agreed to purchase them.

From sheltering narco-barons to engaging in narco-trafficking to 🇪🇺, the government of Erdogan provides a sanctions evasion lifeline for Nicolas Maduro’s Venezuela Why is the 🇺🇸 overlooking this? My latest for The National Interest w/ FDD colleague Will Doran

Why is 🇹🇷 at the center of a terrorist financial network, channeling Iranian monies to Hamas? And this is the same country that thinks it deserves F-35's from the 🇺🇸 ? My latest for Long War Journal & FDD

Erdogan put Imamoglu in jail. The question is, is Mansur Yavas next? It's clear Erdogan won't stop to crush opposition as he tries to groom his son to succeed him Why does 🇪🇺 still think it can trust this thuggish regime? Our latest for The National Interest with William Doran

Not mincing my words here in my latest for @breakingdefense.com London's Eurofighter sale is a win for 🇹🇷, but a strategic blunder that history will remember

My friend @sinanciddi.bsky.social found this old panel discussion of Turkey and human rights from (2012). We were both much younger and much handsomer. The funniest thing about it was the audience was not very happy... Sinan and I were simply too harsh on the AKP www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbpE...

2012-one of the very first panels I spoke at in Washington on why Erdogan and the AKP were a threat to 🇹🇷 On the panel, my friend @heissenstat.bsky.social & Amb. Ross Wilson Gulenists in the audience hated the panel and called us "elitists". Back then, it wasn't vogue to critique Erdogan 😀

Indeed-maps home made by Will Doran-my partner in crime for this piece!

How 🇹🇷 Arms End Up in African Conflicts Ankara’s engagement on the continent has generated violence, not stability Our latest piece for @foreignpolicy.com w/my FDD colleague Will Doran

🇹🇷 military has no business in Gaza It's presence is dangerous & risks not only arming Hamas but risks positioning a NATO military power by its side in support of a terrorist entity Our latest piece with Ahmad Sharawi for National Security Journal👇

DW has an interesting run-down of varied thinking around EU coordination with Turkey over security as Russia looms larger and the US proves increasing undependable. With @sinanciddi.bsky.social and @Samuel Doveri Vesterbye. www.youtube.com/watch?v=yo97...

My latest for @haaretzcom.bsky.social 👇 "Erdogan's Turkey Wants to Be a Key Player in Post-war Gaza. It's a Fantasy" 🇹🇷 President's unwavering embrace of Hamas leaves Ankara without the credibility, trust or impartiality required to shape Gaza's future

Is 🇹🇷 going to play a significant role in Gaza following the ceasefire? I spoke to i24 News to discuss 👇

🇹🇷 doesn't want F-35s and F110 engines etc. bc it's interested in being a US-NATO ally. It wants them "so that it can go its own way, develop its own capabilities and eventually, compete with the United States" My latest for Real Clear Defense w/ Will Doran

My latest for @kathimerini.gr w/Will Doran Erdogan’s Imagined ‘arms race’ in Cyprus “🇹🇷 highly militarized occupation of the island’s northern 3rd for the past half-century demonstrates that Ankara is far more a military threat to Cyprus than vice versa”

Who got what out of the Turkey-Trump meeting? Erdogan-Trump bulusmasinda kim ne aldi-verdi? @alinozinian.bsky.social ile keyifli ve uzun soluklu bir sohbet www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdd1...

Let’s be blunt. Selling Erdogan F35's would mean arming a state sponsor of terrorism He is not some misunderstood ally gone astray, but an Islamist strongman who bankrolls and shelters terrorists Trump should not reward him. My latest for @nypost.com

He blasts what remains of pol opposition & dem institutions in 🇹🇷 Comes to NY & speaks on camera that he supports terrorist orgs designated by 🇺🇸 Militarily escalates against 🇺🇸 allies daily & now wants F35s DC can stop Erdogan - my latest for Washington Examiner

Ahead of Sharaa's UN visit, it's important to remember that unity in Syria is fragile at best & tensions are running high, especially w/military threats from 🇹🇷 In our latest analysis for FDD Ahmad Sharawi, William Doran and & I offer some recommendations

ICYMI: I analyzed the likelihood and consequences of armed conflict between 🇹🇷 & 🇮🇱 for @haaretzcom.bsky.social What did I learn from the experience? Mostly that people don’t read, but sure have a lot of heated opinions and savor the thought of violence

Israel struck Qatar for hosting Hamas' leaders. Is Turkey next? My latest for @haaretzcom.bsky.social

🇹🇷 Turkey could be next in Israel's cross-hairs after Qatar. The consequences? Catastrophic www.haaretz.com/opinion/2025... @sinanciddi.bsky.social By @sinanciddi.bsky.social 🧵👇

My latest for Kathimerini👇 "Erdogan’s ambitions rest not on cooperation but coercion. By rewriting maritime borders unilaterally and courting both sides of a divided Libya, Turkey signals that it does not accept international law when it stands in the way of its geopolitical designs"

Ne ezik, korkak, leş kokusu bir rejim dimi?

While Europe and Washington twiddle their thumbs, 🇹🇷 is preparing to escalate tensions in the Mediterranean (again) My latest for Kathimerini

My latest for Jerusalem Strategic Tribune & Part 4 in my 🇹🇷 involvement in 🇸🇾 series👇 "In 2013, some 30K foreign fighters are estimated to have joined the Caliphate by crossing into Syria via 🇹🇷 Brett McGurk...alleged that 🇹🇷 had harbored the caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi"

Erdogan and Davutoglu––in their quest for regime change, underwrote the bloodiest chapters of the Syrian civil war, transforming Turkey into a "jihadi highway" My latest for Jerusalem Strategic Tribune & FDD Part 3 in my 🇹🇷 involvement in Syria series👇

🇹🇷 moves to ban maritime shipping to 🇮🇱 a 2nd major move since banning trade w/the Jewish state in 2024 So far, no official government memorandum, but verbal instructions issued by port authorities to vessels My latest for Long War Journal & FDD

The 2nd piece of my Turkey's involvement in Syria piece for Jerusalem Strategic Tribune & FDD is up Why did Erdogan turn against Assad-a man he invested so much in? 🇹🇷 Syria policy can't be explained if we don't remember Ahmet Davutoglu's role

Turkey showcases new weapons capabilities-but to what end? I joined @cbsnews.com John Batchelor Show to discuss👇

In my latest for National Security Journal, I argue: "🇹🇷 record tells a different story-one of opportunistic power projection, escalating militarism, & strategic partnerships with actors hostile to Western interests. Whether in 🇱🇾, 🇸🇴, 🇸🇾, or 🇨🇾, Ankara is redrawing the map of the region"

In the first of a series of articles for Jerusalem Strategic Tribune, I examine 🇹🇷 involvement in Syria This piece is an origins story, detailing Turkey's Islamist movement & its ideological outlook towards the Baathist movement Why did Erdogan both pursue and resent Assad?

My latest for FDD with Ahmad Sharawi “Syria after Bashar al-Assad is a country in chaos, but that does not mean it cannot get worse. One way that could happen would be a direct Turkish military intervention”

My latest for the National Interest argues that "Since the fall of Assad’s regime in 2024, 🇹🇷 has pursued a singular objective: the “Sunnification” of Syria. Erdogan has shown little interest in fostering a stable, inclusive 🇸🇾"