You have a problem. You ask a consultant for a solution. He gives you one. You pay him. He leaves. The problem is solved. Why do people believe this fiction?

Best album of 2025: Bon Iver - SABLE, fABLE Best book I read in 2025: The proof by Frederick Schauer (from 2022)

The day retraction watch looks at the “research” produced by international organizations, the reckoning will be bigger than for social psychology.

Kate Ho 😔

This is the most important/poorest maintained page in the Stan bayesverse github.com/stan-dev/sta...

I’ve also been having fun teaching a bunch of non profit donors to work with ellmer, rangar, shinychat and querychat. These tools are amazing tbh.

I'm having fun with an experiment using ellmer and ollamar: an open-source LLM committee. Maybe the ensemble works where each model fails.

Looks very good

Bravo Brazil!

Awesome forthcoming 2026, not sold on the cover.

I've been waiting years for somebody to put this together, all the pieces were already there. This is amazing and this team deserves an applause.

LLMs are killing the consulting industry, which should tell you everything you need to know about both.

I love how junior psychologists are not even trained on simple logistic regression but are expected to analyse multiple ordinal variables at once.

Just finished @tomchivers.bsky.social “Everything is predictable”. 5 stars because it manages history of science and intuition better than any other book on Bayesian analysis.

So Colbert is out in May 2026? So many interesting possibilities.

“Art 11. Las firmas encuestadoras deberán cumplir con las leyes de la estadística. Si no lo hicieren, responderán civil y penalmente por sus actos cuando corresponda.” Lawmakers in Colombia think the law of large numbers is a law, that if not followed, can lead to a pollster to prison.

The partner senator of presidential candidate in Colombia just passed a law banning all presidential polling for the next elections. How on earth is this legal?

I just made a querychat+ellmer+ragnar+shiny dashboard to parse through a database. This combo will be a very big deal soon.

😔

Ese señor Saade está loco.

Called it statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

Qué desolación ese atentado, difícil no sentir desesperanza de que todo se revierta.

Increíble esta señora sola con 3 por 5 horas en un tren, todo bajo control. Se merece un aplauso.

This:

We were just parameters all along.

Have more Wayne Coyne in your life

Some recent albums that went unnoticed in demented times:

ragnar 0.1 is in CRAN today, fun

That paper A quest for knowledge in Econometrica is really cool.

If any sufficiently bad quality research is indistinguishable from fraud, does that hold the other way around?

Liking this one a lot.

Migratory Schrödinger's cat status are amusing. You often need to meet empty-set conditions to exist.

American heliocentric open science Monday 🙄

This from @m-clark.bsky.social looks amazing

“I don’t fully understand it but it seems like a step in the right direction”. I love this comment in the Stan Prios recommendation page in GitHub. github.com/stan-dev/sta...

Sinners is really good

Playing around with ellmer, ollama, ragnar and shinychat. So many cool possibilities.

Prestige to replicators, lots of it.

Enjoying a lot Spiegelhater’s book on uncertainty.

How do you defeat a eugenics movement without, say, a world war?

Hay una gente que desde niños ya se sabía que tenían potencial para figurar en LinkedIn.

What is the right way to cite articles in the Writing section of your website @betanalpha.bsky.social?

There is not bad timing to listen to Billie Holiday

If you hear an explanation and can’t help but interpret it as a justification, turn your inner lawyer off and fucking listen

El sector humanitario resultó mucho más espeluznante de lo que me imaginé, out.

This:

Adam Rutherford really saw it coming. This is another wave of eugenics.

Cosas bonitas en el nuevo pueblo

How does one deal with defamation?

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