(@conbrio24.bsky.social)

Gandalv (@gandalv) Iran just cited the Budapest Memorandum in nuclear talks with Washington. Let that sink in. The country America has been bombing for weeks just handed US negotiators a copy of their own promises and asked, politely, how that’s going. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Washington solemnly guaranteed Ukraine’s sovereignty in exchange for giving up the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal. The answer, obviously, is: not brilliantly. Ukraine handed over 1,900 warheads. America handed over a strongly-worded nothing. Then watched Russia annex Crimea. Then watched Russia annex four more provinces. Then, when Kyiv needed air defence most, Washington started haggling over the bill. Iran noticed. Of course Iran noticed. Every government on earth with a nuclear file open on the desk noticed. And here’s the truly excruciating part: Tehran is not wrong. When the country you’re currently bombing mid-negotiation has the stronger legal argument, something has gone catastrophically sideways in American foreign policy. A guarantee from Washington used to mean something. It opened doors, ended wars, convinced nervous governments to make enormous, irreversible decisions about their own security. Now it’s a historical curiosity that Iran quotes back at you across a negotiating table. Well done, everyone. https://substack.com/@gandalv/note/c-246756772?r=69bem&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action