Right on the heels of the pod and talking dynasty bestball, is a fresh new article too. otcffb.com/content/dyna...

Dropped in on the Future 1st Pod again to talk Dynasty Bestball and RBs. podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/f...

#SFB16 Pick Thread Starting it off with Trey McBride

Getting better is a good thing. Above the diagonal is signal of that happening. This is first vs last season from 2021-2025 I’ll give Mike Evans a pass due to injury in 2025, I’ll get to that later. Shaheed also suffered, but chalk that up to switching teams. I’m expecting a 2026 rebound. 1/3

2025 Fantasy Points Per Opportunity Starting with WR Boutte led the way, but is buried on the depth chart. Up next another guy on limited routes. Christian Watson could be really good if he stays healthy at 2.364 fantasy points per opp. Pierce and Coker are in interesting company... 1/3

Tale of the tape between Loveland and Warren. Loveland’s slow start and missed time, volume goes Warren, but most of the rest goes Loveland. If you split Warren’s year into weeks 1-7 vs the rest though, it gets a lot closer, with Warren leading in some categories. Which Warren do we get in 2026?

New to Dynasty Bestball or looking for an overview? Let me help you. otcffb.com/content/dyna...

How much impact do position groupings have at the goal line? Across 2022-2025 10,299 offensive plays after filtering out FG/XP/no-play League TD rate: 29.2% Teams had highest TD rate when going with heavier packages. Having a single WR on the field, dropped the TD rate ~10 percentage points. 1/3

Wrote a little something, digging into the Irving vs Gainwell breakdown. otcffb.com/content/dyna...

2025 JAX WRs Breakdown The offense changed dramatically throughout the year. Here's how usage shifted across 4 phases. BTJ: 14 games (missed Wk 8, 11–12 ankle) Meyers: 9 games (JAX only, Wk 10–18) P. Washington: 15 games (full season) Hunter: 7 games (missed Wk 8–18 knee) 1/4

Took a look at Play Action / Motion / Shotgun effects. For the sake of relevance and shifting league tendencies I used 2022-2025 regular season qb plays. 85,701 pass plays 3,699 qb rush plays Details in thread 🧵 1/4

# Downs '21-25 3rd Most: CLE (1,295), NYG (1,288), LAC (1,278), HOU (1,267), TB (1,263) Least: SF (1,092), SEA (1,115), GB (1,124), MIA (1,129), BAL (1,131) 17% gap 4th Most: CLE (757), NYG (737), NYJ (732), CAR (728), HOU (725) Least: BUF (520), SF (528), KC (537), GB (583), LA (594) 39% gap 1/2

Lots of #SFB16 talk, but I just joined the Nightwing division of Super League #SLFF4 Will be fun joining @ffnatejahnke.bsky.social @koopatroopa8.bsky.social @rmsummerlin.bsky.social and more Only 1 bench spot, so roster management is key More openings if you're interested www.superleagueff.org

#SFB16 How repeatable are the big plays/games? 100+ yd game (r=0.635) 10 straight years of YoY correlation above 0.58. This means if a player had a 100+ yd game in 2025, there's a great chance he does it in 2026. 20+ yd rec's (r=0.505) 300+ yd passing (r=0.449) Don't build around the rest. 1/4

Be careful you don't get caught in a variance loop chasing WRS in #SFB16 this year. Here are the guys (not in any order) I'd target at ADP who lean into the settings and clear the bars of predictive success. Honorable mention to Christian Watson and Jameson Williams (h/t to @jonleonard.bsky.social)

Something new for your podcast feed. Check out my friend @jonleonard.bsky.social!

Using QBs w/ at least 1 season 300+yd rushing 2016-2025, what happens when they don't run vs when they do 16 qualified, then split games between high (5+, 303) and low (<5, 690) attempt games Pass yards & first down percentages came down, but everything else was better for the high rush games 1/3

Twas the Night Before Fish Bowl, You know the one! ALL of Fantasy’s Caring, Donations & fun We’re following @scottfish.bsky.social His graphics are goated And so is the Fish Bowl Where charity’s promoted It’s the 16th edition, A theme has been named Grab your controller: It’s video games! #SFB16

YAC 2022-2025 123 receivers (89 WR, 34 TE) ≥100 targets 8 of top 10 YAC% are TEs TE avg YAC% = 47.6% vs WR avg = 34.2% Kraft is the YAC king #1 in YAC/Rec (9.1) #3 in YAC% (66.3%) +1.151 EPA/Tgt Jameson Williams rules efficiency Highest Y/T (16.6) & EPA/Tgt (+1.418) Lowest YAC% (40.4%) 1/4

Rush vs Pass 2022-2025 Green: Rush EPA > Pass EPA Gray: Even Red: Pass EPA > Rush EPA Some expected names on either side, but then Drake Maye makes an appearance with -0.686 EPA/rush for -19.2 EPA on 28 attempts. Caleb, Darnold and Baker in a disappointing cluster. Purdy w/ highest EPA? Ugh 1/3

Did a review of one of my 2025 dynasty bestball leagues, a 12 team, start 12 Superflex PPR league w/ an added 0.25 point per 1st down and 0.75 for TE receptions. Looks like spaghetti, but that’s the goal. Accumulate enough overlapping spike weeks, combined with stable point production. 1/2

The aDot effect The EPA curve is asymmetric: it climbs steadily from 0-20, peaks at 18-20, roughly flattens, then falls off. Success rate peaks at 6-8 yds aDot (61.2%) EPA peaks at 18-20 yds aDot (+0.464) Confirms high conversion-rate at shorter distances, but less efficiency, then increasing.

Motion’s effect on EPA, using 2022-2025 YoY usage is growing: 33% > 42% > 49.5% > 53.6% Average boost to EPA+SuccessRate is small but consistent. There are a few outliers. Motion turns Shedeur from a disaster (-0.540) into a very slight positive (+0.015) Most of the others are less drastic 1/x

Under Pressure (2022-2025) League-wide Pressure rate: ~29.2% of pass plays EPA under pressure: -0.408 vs. +0.214 w/o (a massive -0.622 EPA drop) 4th down is most pressured, around half the time and about the same as 1st and 2nd down combined. Large jump from 2nd to 3rd 26.8 to 40.5% 1/4

2025 WR Consolidated Targets SEA leads with 35.7% to JSN DET (31.3% to St. Brown) CIN (30.3% to Chase) NYJ most distributed, Wilson lead at 12.6% KC (14.3%), TEN (16.8%), SF (16.8%) next Target concentration has minimal predictive power. Minimal correlation between consolidation and EPA.

Using FTN's charting, filtering for RPO vs non-RPO plays by QB over 2022-2025 Much of this data suffers from small sample. This surprised me at how little was flagged RPO. RPO usage has been rather volatile, but spiked (a bit) in 2025. 4.0% (2022) → 2.6% (2023) → 1.7% (2024) → 4.5% (2025). 1/4

2021-2025 TE Efficiency Kraft is a dude. +0.607 EPA/tgt Kittle volume and efficiency. +0.550 EPA/tgt w/ 433 tgts Loveland +0.572 EPA/target as a rookie w/ 83 tgts. Extreme Air EPA (+0.747). Need work on that YAC Small sample, Kolar +0.576 EPA/tgt 👀 Draft rd helps, doesn't matter in the long run.

The two QBs that spend the most time out of the pocket are Bo Nix and Caleb Williams. Unfortunately they both fall off a cliff when doing so. Both see a ~0.23 EPA drop off. Caleb holds the ball for nearly 5s on avg OOP. 97% take longer than 2.5s. Thanks @tonyperez34.bsky.social for the nudge. 1/3

Over the last couple years, we’re seeing more passing from outside the pocket. Year over year about a percentage point and a half increase. Only 7 QBs had a higher EPA when using it. Some are drastically worse. Penix, Hurts, Purdy, Maye, and Dart for example, all drop by .3 EPA or more. 1/2

Some confirmation here. Scramblers gonna scramble rather than look for that check down later in the progression. 2022-2025 Percentage of screens split by time to throw >= or < 2s in 1st chart 2016-2025 scramble % vs fast screens in the 2nd Thanks to @tacitassassin13.bsky.social for asking. 1/3

Screens made up ~8.7% of all pass plays in the sample. High-percentage, low-value, but QB variance. Lamar is an anti-screen passer with -0.209 EPA boost. His EPA is high enough that screens drop off. Backup QBs dominate screen efficiency Stidham (+0.387) Siemian (+0.104) McCarthy (+0.235) 1/3

Play-action passes average +0.104 EPA/attempt vs. -0.026 EPA/attempt on non-PA How helpful play-action is varies by QB. Lamar leads across the board with a +0.317 and over 400 attempts. Elite in efficiency and volume. 1/3

Context-adjusted QB effect on EPA and how the pairing with the receivers matters. Devonta Smith and AJ Brown basically overlap, probably says a bit more about Hurts. Shakir and Waddle are sitting with some elite company while JSN and Jefferson are "suffering" from their QBs. 1/4

From 2016 to 2025, separating players by position, round and age, then tracking their yards. RBs had a lot more signal. WRs and TEs are a lot more spaghetti. Kittle, Kelce and Gronk really skew the TE averages, but I wanted to stick to the raw averages here.

Trey McBride led the league at TE with: 169 tgts for 126/1239/11 2nd place was Kyle Pitts with: 118 tgts for 88/928/5 Lots of regression talk. Reverted to league avg attempts, would be ~16% dip. McBride still would've had 106/1040/9 good enough for... TE1 (similar to his 2024, but with more TDs)

From 2016 to 2025, reviewing the passing attempts, yards, completions and TDs… It all starts to stabilize and become predictive after the first 4 weeks (except TDs, they take a little longer). League-wide per-game averages lead the individual QBs, but individuals lock in pretty close as well.

#SFB16 Scoring is out and it's all about big plays and video games. Here are your leaders in 20+ yd receptions 2022-2025. Jameson Wiliams and George Kittle (18.3%), Brandon Aiyuk (18.2%), George Pickens (17.9%) lead the way in big plays per reception Kittle's recovery will be big to watch. (1/*)

Spent a little time on QBs over the weekend. Comparing expected vs actual EPA across QBs per pass attempt with a minimum of 200 attempts. Averages, then adjusting for context as well. Shedeur down in the Browns corner with Kizer and DTR. Successful offenses and QBs litter the top right. 1/2

2016-2025 Top 12 TEs in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TDs.

2016-2025 Top 12 RBs rushing per year

Top 12 WRs by category by year. Not tracking individual players, but whomever was the WRX for that particular season.

RB average rushing and receiving yards split by age entering the league and draft round. This data range covers 2016-2025.

Year 2 RB production by age and draft round Round 2 RBs, particularly 23/24yr olds start to ascend. The dots start to spread out in year 2 as players settle into roles. 1/2

Rookie RB yardage totals by age and draft round. Zeke was a dude back in the day. Kamara was on another level as a receiver. Saquon broke the game. Some confirmation here, the younger and higher drafted the RB, the higher the ceiling. 1/2

Looking at 78 RBs with at least 3 seasons of 100+ total touches. The decline seems to start at age 27 and/or 4yrs in the league. 10 had a gradual decline, 57 fell off a cliff and the last 11 are still rolling. (1/*)

2025 QBs under pressure The Good: Mahomes, Cousins, Jones, Dak, and Caleb Williams 👀 The Bad: Cook, Smith, Ward, Flacco and Rodgers Dillon Gabriel appears to be the least impacted by pressure, but he also just wasn't very good. Cook, the best (worst) at taking sacks under pressue. (1/2)

From 2016 to 2025, 23 WRs had 6600+ yds and played 5+ seasons. Hat tip to @fftommyb.bsky.social for the question. The average decline started at 27.9yrs old or 5.5 years in the league. 5 of those WRs had a gradual decline and 18 fell off a cliff. (1/*)

If AJB joins the Patriots, a little look into how he fits with the rest of the room. Note Kyle Williams is a very small sample compared to the others. Pop leads the way in getting open and underneath targets while AJB is that dude in volume, efficiency and those deep throws. 2022-2025 Data (1/2)