How important has immigration been for recent state population growth? My new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog post has an interactive state map exploring this question: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/populat.... The patterns imply that the recent & projected declines will be felt unevenly. #MapMonday

With high interest rates and prices, houses are less affordable than almost any time in recent memory. "The promise of the Sun Belt has often been more affordability... but as that wanes, that could discourage people," says @riordanfrost.bsky.social. www.theatlantic.com/family/2026/...

Immigration fell sharply in 2025, dragging down US population growth. Census projects that immigration will be even lower in 2026, which would likely result in historically low growth. I explore how this might affect states in a new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/populat...

Household mobility fell to its lowest rate on record in 2024, with just over 1 in 10 households moving. Homeowners drove the decline as they faced high interest rates and home prices, while renter mobility stayed flat. @riordanfrost.bsky.social www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/househo...

New ACS data show US household mobility hit another record low in 2024, driven by homeowners staying put amid high prices & rates—especially younger owners. In my @harvard-jchs.bsky.social post, I unpack the data and reflect on what may have happened in 2025: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/househo...

Happy #MapMonday! In top homebuilding metros, immigrants play a major role in supplying housing. Check out this bubble map (size = building permits, color = foreign-born share of the construction trades) in my latest @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/homebui...

Happy #MapMonday! Rural home prices soared after the pandemic, by 36% in non-metro counties and fully 47% in vacation counties from 2020–2023, per new work from my @harvard-jchs.bsky.social colleagues @aherm.bsky.social & @pjwhit.bsky.social. www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/home-pr...

Happy #MapMonday! Where are deaths outpacing births? Per @washingtonpost.com, mostly older, whiter counties: www.washingtonpost.com/business/202.... Similar patterns in my @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog on how migration has offset natural loss in many places: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/post-pa....

Happy #MapMonday! Net migration in rural areas surged during the pandemic—and remains high. In many of these communities, migration is offsetting steep natural loss. See where in the dark green on the map, and read more in my new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/post-pa....

The @gsd.harvard.edu seeks to appoint a distinguished scholar and/or practitioner with a deep understanding of housing markets, practice, and policy to serve as the Nicolas P. and Joan B. Retsinas Director of the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies. www.jchs.harvard.edu/nicolas-p-an...

After losing population for much of the 2010s, rural areas have been consistently gaining population in the post-pandemic era, writes @riordanfrost.bsky.social in a new blog. Try the interactive map: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/post-pa...

In just five years, the income needed to afford the median-priced home nearly doubled—from $68k to $131k. Getting payments back to 2020 levels would require interest rates to be nearly zero, per @harvard-jchs.bsky.social www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/lower-i... #FigureFriday #housing #affordability

Happy #MapMonday! How much did each metro area depend on immigration for growth last year, and which ones will therefore feel the effects of the recent slowdown most acutely? Find out in the interactive map in my new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog post: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/metro-a....

The recent slowdown in immigration has big implications for pop growth in metro areas. My latest @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog discusses how metros will need to rely instead on (declining) natural growth or (unevenly distributed) domestic migration: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/metro-a...

With high home prices & interest rates, what's a first-time homebuyer to do? Move far afield, according to a @nytimes.com article from this weekend that cites the paper on millennial suburbanization that I co-authored with @airbrycki.bsky.social & Hyojung Lee: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/31/r...

New research from @pewtrusts.org finds that new housing slows rent growth most for older, more affordable units, and not allowing more homes to be built—even for high-income residents—pushes up all rents. www.pew.org/en/research-...

Today's affordability crisis is undercutting tomorrow's homeownership rate. This new paper projects a 1.6pp decline in the HO rate by 2035 on the low end and a 0.8 pp increase on the high end. The low scenario accounts for today's unaffordability by applying historically low HO gains to <35 cohorts.

Why haven’t downtown Boston housing prices appreciated? First, there has been an exodus to the suburbs, even among millennials who once seemed to embrace city life, says @riordanfrost.bsky.social. But now, he says, “more millennials are suburbanizing than not.” www.bostonglobe.com/2025/07/30/b...

Happy #MapMonday! How much did counties gain/lose from domestic migration in 2024? In my new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social paper, I show that inflows to lower-density places were elevated through 2024. Explore the map: www.datawrapper.de/_/cGxny and the paper: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/five-wa...

Happy #MapMonday! Here's a map from my new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social paper on pandemic-era changes in residential mobility! Shifts are emerging in Midwest and Northeast states, while much (but not all) of the Sunbelt keeps drawing more inflows. Explore the map: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/five-wa...

Many Americans who left large cities during the pandemic headed to suburbs, small cities, and rural areas. New York had one of the country’s largest net outflows during the pandemic, but the number of people leaving the state is now below prepandemic levels, says @riordanfrost.bsky.social.

Happy #MapMonday! What was the largest source of population growth by county in 2024? Immigration played a *big* role, esp. in higher-density areas. Domestic migration remained elevated in lower-density areas. Natural change played a smaller role. Explore the map: www.datawrapper.de/_/U6L0i/

Happy #MapMonday! What was the largest source of population growth in each county in 2023? Many urban counties relied most on natural change, many Sunbelt counties relied on domestic migration, and immigration played a role throughout the country. Explore the map: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QrDYw/4/.

Happy #MapMonday! I’ve been thinking about baby boomers aging into older adulthood (61-79 this year), and it is apparent from this median age by county map that the effects of an aging population will be felt unevenly. Explore the map here: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xFm4W/2/

Happy #MapMonday! Is the draw of the Pacific Northwest over? There was a notable downturn during the pandemic in net inflows in Washington and Oregon, which were previously migration magnets, especially for young adults. These two maps show the slowdown in 26-34yo net inflows b/t 2019 and 2021.

A move away from housing first solutions for homelessness. Further criminalization of sleeping outdoors. Cuts to housing programs. These are some things advocates and people experiencing homelessness worry could be on the horizon. @riordanfrost.bsky.social streetsensemedia.org/article/what...

Happy #MapMonday! Building on recent analysis by @yfreemark.bsky.social & Lindiwe Rennert at @urbaninstitute.bsky.social of the US DOT's plan to prioritize funding to places with high birth and marriage rates, here is a state map showing which states had above-national rates in 2023.

For #MapMonday, I wanted to add a different angle to the discussion of HUD's 2024 #homelessness point-in-time count by showing changes by state since the onset of the pandemic (i.e. Jan 2020–Jan 2024). Only 4 states had any decline, while 9 states saw increases of 50% or more. [Corrected legend]

Happy #MapMonday! This map of natural population change in 2024 shows that most states had more births than deaths, which is true even for states with net migrant outflows (e.g. CA). Migration or immigration drive population change in most states, though, due to steadily declining natural change.

Happy #MapMonday! Further insight into the surge in immigration in the past few years is now available from the revised 2023 and 2024 estimates from Census Vintage 2024 PEP data. The maps below show that many states have had relatively high immigration rates, even some you might not expect.

Happy #MapMonday! Census 2024 state population estimates came out last month, and the domestic migration patterns are fascinating. Sunbelt is still gaining the most migrants but the flows have slowed, most notably for Texas and Florida. Bonus map to show change from 2023.

One immigration data issue recently has been the discrepancy b/t Census data and CBO estimates on levels of immigration, with CBO estimates being *much* higher. Well, Census retroactively updates its estimates with each new vintage of PEP data, and wow v2024 had a BIG change on immigration numbers:

People are continuing to move away from big metro areas toward smaller and medium-sized cities and rural areas. @riordanfrost.bsky.social says the biggest factor for most people is cost. @marketplaceapm.bsky.social www.marketplace.org/2024/12/18/e...

The typical approach of measuring race/ethnicity of a household by the householder misses the nuance of multi-race households. My @harvard-jchs.bsky.social colleagues did a great deep dive into measuring race/ethnicity of all adults, with important findings: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/identif...

Happy #MapMonday! At this time of year I think much more about how we stay warm, which relates to my state of electrification work from earlier this year. That included an interactive map showing share of HHs using only electricity for various uses (2020 RECS): www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/decarbo...

Happy #MapMonday! I've been researching domestic migration in the pandemic years, and one notable finding has been the uptick in rural migration. This county map shows net domestic migration in 2021, when there was a sudden shift in inflows to rural areas (and suburbs and smaller metros).

Happy #MapMonday! This week, a map I made for a @harvard-jchs.bsky.social paper on the history of public housing, which notes that PHA residents are concentrated in the eastern US. Big bonus that the data allowed me to include Puerto Rico! Alex's paper summary: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/can-pub...

Happy #MapMonday! (A former Twitter tradition that I'm happy to revive in this cheerier place). Here's a state map showing how much immigrants make up the construction trades workforce around the US, which is substantial in many high-demand states. Source: ACS 2023.

There is far more money to be made in housing than rocket launches. The reason there is no Elon Musk of housing is that it is several orders of magnitude harder than rockets.

Teachers in three Massachusetts school districts are striking right now, and I just donated to the strike funds for all three (links below). My partner went on strike in Newton last school year – it went on for two weeks as the school committee stonewalled negotiations (🧵 1/4)

In his recent blog on the topic, our @riordanfrost.bsky.social says immigrants accounted for 34 percent of those who worked in construction trades in 2023, far higher than their 18 percent share of the overall workforce. www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/role-re...

For my first Bluesky post, my most recent @harvard-jchs.bsky.social post on the role of immigrants in housing costs! I find that native-born adults drove pandemic-era household growth and the timing of the immigration surge came after the surge in home prices: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/role-re...