Non-Linear Drivers of Population Dynamics: a Nonparametric Coalescent Approach arxiv.org/abs/2602.06148

Frequent presymptomatic household transmission of influenza A but not influenza B virus www.nature.com/articles/s44...

Projected impacts of climate change on malaria in Africa www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Can H5N1 avian influenza in dairy cattle be contained in the US? www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

If you want to learn about viral sequencing and real-time analysis from the absolute best, consider applying here: artic.network/workshops/ac... Application deadline 10 January 2026: survey.ug.edu.gh/surveys/?s=W...

The revision of this work has now been approved: wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/10-...

📢 Thrilled to see that our work on chikungunya virus (CHIKV) epidemiology in Brazil is out in @thelancetinfdis.bsky.social 🧵

Northward expansion of Aedes albopictus-associated arbovirus transmission risk in Europe www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

Multi-model approach to understand and predict past and future dengue epidemic dynamics royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/... Brilliant work by @cathalmills.bsky.social + many others

Rt measures how quickly a pathogen spreads and was central to understanding and controlling COVID-19. In our latest work, we extend this concept to vector-borne diseases, developing a new, renewal equation–based framework that links infection dynamics in humans and vectors. doi.org/10.1111/2041...

From January to 8 October 2025, France (n = 700) and Italy (n = 353) have reported CHIKV cases widely across their territories. The increase in clusters coincides with global outbreaks and temperature anomalies in Europe. Active clusters shown here: gis.ecdc.europa.eu/portal/apps/...

The role of climate variability in shaping the 2023/24 outbreak of Dengue in Brazil (📉 in north regions; 📈 in southern populous regions). Brazil recorded the largest outbreak on record which coincided with the warmest ever reported temperatures in the Americas. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

Chikungunya outbreak in northern Italy (Modena, Carpi, San Prospero, Concordia sulla Secchia, and Soliera) with over 104 detected and confirmed autochthonous transmissions: www.ausl.mo.it/chikungunya-...

382 locally acquired cases of chikungunya in France in 2025 alone. Total of just under 1000 imported cases from outbreaks abroad. www.santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-et-...

Mosquito-borne viruses surge in a warming Europe www.science.org/content/arti...

Sequence data from the new Ebola outbreak in DRC suggests it is indeed a new spillover. And just incredible to see the virus sequenced and the data publicly shared less than 24 hours after confirmation of the outbreak. #IDsky 🧪 virological.org/t/the-16th-e...

Dengue disease severity in humans is augmented by waning Japanese encephalitis virus immunity www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Likely a new spillover causing the Ebola outbreak in the DRC: virological.org/t/the-16th-e...

Climate-sensitive disease data integration has been challenging due to variations in spatial & temporal resolution of inputs as well as multi-modality (satellite imagery, tabular, genomic..). We built a tool to makes it easier to perform data integration: wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/10-...

A systematic nomenclature for mpox viruses causing outbreaks with sustained human-to-human transmission www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Probable autochthonous case of chikungunya reported in northern Italy: www.ausl.pc.it/it/comunicaz...

Now peer-reviewed and approved.

BEAST X for Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographic and phylodynamic inference www.nature.com/articles/s41...

So proud of Dr. Joseph Tsui, whom I had the great pleasure of co-advising with Oliver Pybus, for finishing his DPhil yesterday. Many thanks also to his examiners, Mike Osborne (Oxford Computer Science) and Jess Metcalf (Princeton Ecology/Evolution). Sel. Pubs: shorturl.at/rPFJE & shorturl.at/gqIKI

Phylogenetic insights into the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne viruses www.nature.com/articles/s41... Great work by Verity Hill and team

Write-up of our open-source software tool, Grapevne, enabling rapid construction of multi-data type workflows for enhanced pandemic preparedness. It was born out of the need to repeat analyses during the invasion of multiple Variants of Concern. wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/10-...

Competition between transmission lineages mediated by human mobility shapes seasonal influenza epidemics in the US www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Fantastic overview of Chikungunya virus and other emerging arthritogenic alphaviruses www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Really looking forward to this event @oxmartinschool.bsky.social on what turns spillovers into epidemics/pandemics in human populations: www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/events/what-... with exciting speakers. Hosted by the Pandemic Genomics program and moderated by @jessmetcalf.bsky.social

What turns a virus spillover into an epidemic? 🌍🦠 Join leading experts to explore how AI, genomics & ecology shape epidemic forecasting. 📍Oxford Martin School & Online ⏰ May 19 5–6:15pm Register here: https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/events/what-turns-spillovers-into-epidemics

Artificial intelligence and illusions of understanding in scientific research www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Mosquito-borne viral disease sweeping Indian Ocean islands www.science.org/content/arti...

Excellent opportunity for young researchers to gain skills and start their independent careers. marie-sklodowska-curie-actions.ec.europa.eu/news/msca-op...

Europe’s choice is clear. To put science at the heart of its economy. To become the home of scientific freedom and collaboration. And to welcome talent from all over the world. I’m glad to present the first elements of our Choose Europe Initiative. → europa.eu/!TTbWbJ

Really looking forward to this event @oxmartinschool.bsky.social on what turns spillovers into epidemics/pandemics in human populations: www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/events/what-... with exciting speakers. Hosted by the Pandemic Genomics program and moderated by @jessmetcalf.bsky.social

Convergence and consensus www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Why an overreliance on AI-driven modelling can be bad for science. Some good thoughts in here about the distinction between engineering and the natural sciences. www.nature.com/articles/d41...

Five years ago @scarpino.bsky.social www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

No angle needed. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

New preprint by Joseph Tsui (www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/people/josep...) on the detection of viral importations of emerging infectious diseases under low sampling regimes. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1... Critical work for more accurately estimating the timing and intensity of lineage movements.

@nature.com is providing a list to their articles on how science is being reshaped by the new US administration, including a recent piece on the termination of active research grants: www.nature.com/articles/d41...

Great to be involved in putting this one together! Artificial intelligence for modelling infectious disease epidemics, now out in @nature.com Lots of exciting scope for using AI technologies to advance infectious disease research and preparedness! www.nature.com/articles/s41...

AI is poised to accelerate understanding in infectious diseases, but its value needs to be demonstrated through close collaboration between research, industry, society, and policy. Paper free to read: rdcu.be/eaxEw Summary here: www.ox.ac.uk/news/2025-02...

"Although the potential of AI models is evident, their ultimate value will depend on demonstrating a clear opportunity cost advantage over existing approaches—which has yet to be proven definitively." www.nature.com/articles/s41...

New @nature.com How #AI can play a pivotal role in future pandemic preparedness and mitigation, with caveats nature.com/articles/s41... a privilege to join this global collaborative effort led by Moritz Kraemer and Samir Bhatt

Wastewater from airplane toilets? We introduce a global Aircraft-Based Wastewater Surveillance Network (WWSN) for pandemic monitoring in Nature Medicine 🔗 doi.org/10.1038/s415... Aircraft-based wastewater surveillance allows for real-time, non-invasive monitoring of global pathogen spread Short 🧵

Integrating artificial intelligence with mechanistic epidemiological modeling: a scoping review of opportunities and challenges www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Wild avian viruses are mixing up their genetics all the time www.theguardian.com/science/2025...

Access to probabilistic weather forecasts data at 12 hour resolution and max lead times of 15 days from GoogleDeepmind can now be requested: deepmind.google/technologies... www.nature.com/articles/s41...