1/ The past 36 hours have been significant for the ongoing #hantavirus outbreak. I still think the risk is low, but we're almost certainly going to see more cases. Here's what I'm watching: 1. Three new positive individuals (French, US, Spanish). 2. Four viral genomes. 3. Ship fully evacuated.

Two more passengers (one in France and one in the US) from the MV Hondius testing positive after being evacuated yesterday. All data here: github.com/kraemer-lab/...

1/ Yesterday I was more worried about #hantavirus than I am today. Why? Flight attendant who was exposed - Tested negative Viral genome - No concerning mutations Two Singaporean's exposed - Tested negative Data situation - We're tracking at Global.health (h/t @mugkraemer.bsky.social)

First genome sequence from Andes hantavirus strain from ongoing ship outbreak posted on Virological: virological.org/t/complete-s... courtesy Swiss National Reference Centre for Emerging Viral Infections, Geneva University Hospitals, University of Zurich

Joseph Tsui, Ben Reddy and I are recruiting a postdoc @psioxford.bsky.social to work on AI methods for multi-pathogen and multi-country biosurveillance optimisation for epidemic and endemic pathogens. Closing date May 11th my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru... www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Incredible work by Jonathan Pekar et al.: The emergence and molecular evolution of H5N1 influenza viruses in United States dairy cattle www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6...

Biosecurity depends critically on the early identification of novel pathogens. Our international team developed a global multi-scale model of infectious diseases to evaluate the time to detection in aircraft wastewater vs. other surveillance modalities. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...

A multi-scale model to evaluate airport wastewater surveillance and ICU genomic monitoring for pandemic preparedness https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.02.27.26347250v1

Interested in developing benchmarks for infectious disease modeling? We are recruiting a fellow @psioxford.bsky.social funded by Google Research and the Health AI team. Bonus: collaborations between the AI teams at Google Research and DeepMind. Deadline March 16. my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...

Non-Linear Drivers of Population Dynamics: a Nonparametric Coalescent Approach arxiv.org/abs/2602.06148

Frequent presymptomatic household transmission of influenza A but not influenza B virus www.nature.com/articles/s44...

Projected impacts of climate change on malaria in Africa www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Can H5N1 avian influenza in dairy cattle be contained in the US? www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

If you want to learn about viral sequencing and real-time analysis from the absolute best, consider applying here: artic.network/workshops/ac... Application deadline 10 January 2026: survey.ug.edu.gh/surveys/?s=W...

The revision of this work has now been approved: wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/10-...

📢 Thrilled to see that our work on chikungunya virus (CHIKV) epidemiology in Brazil is out in @thelancetinfdis.bsky.social 🧵

Northward expansion of Aedes albopictus-associated arbovirus transmission risk in Europe www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

Multi-model approach to understand and predict past and future dengue epidemic dynamics royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/... Brilliant work by @cathalmills.bsky.social + many others

Rt measures how quickly a pathogen spreads and was central to understanding and controlling COVID-19. In our latest work, we extend this concept to vector-borne diseases, developing a new, renewal equation–based framework that links infection dynamics in humans and vectors. doi.org/10.1111/2041...

From January to 8 October 2025, France (n = 700) and Italy (n = 353) have reported CHIKV cases widely across their territories. The increase in clusters coincides with global outbreaks and temperature anomalies in Europe. Active clusters shown here: gis.ecdc.europa.eu/portal/apps/...

The role of climate variability in shaping the 2023/24 outbreak of Dengue in Brazil (📉 in north regions; 📈 in southern populous regions). Brazil recorded the largest outbreak on record which coincided with the warmest ever reported temperatures in the Americas. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

Chikungunya outbreak in northern Italy (Modena, Carpi, San Prospero, Concordia sulla Secchia, and Soliera) with over 104 detected and confirmed autochthonous transmissions: www.ausl.mo.it/chikungunya-...

382 locally acquired cases of chikungunya in France in 2025 alone. Total of just under 1000 imported cases from outbreaks abroad. www.santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-et-...

Mosquito-borne viruses surge in a warming Europe www.science.org/content/arti...

Sequence data from the new Ebola outbreak in DRC suggests it is indeed a new spillover. And just incredible to see the virus sequenced and the data publicly shared less than 24 hours after confirmation of the outbreak. #IDsky 🧪 virological.org/t/the-16th-e...

Dengue disease severity in humans is augmented by waning Japanese encephalitis virus immunity www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Likely a new spillover causing the Ebola outbreak in the DRC: virological.org/t/the-16th-e...

Climate-sensitive disease data integration has been challenging due to variations in spatial & temporal resolution of inputs as well as multi-modality (satellite imagery, tabular, genomic..). We built a tool to makes it easier to perform data integration: wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/10-...

A systematic nomenclature for mpox viruses causing outbreaks with sustained human-to-human transmission www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Probable autochthonous case of chikungunya reported in northern Italy: www.ausl.pc.it/it/comunicaz...

Now peer-reviewed and approved.

BEAST X for Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographic and phylodynamic inference www.nature.com/articles/s41...

So proud of Dr. Joseph Tsui, whom I had the great pleasure of co-advising with Oliver Pybus, for finishing his DPhil yesterday. Many thanks also to his examiners, Mike Osborne (Oxford Computer Science) and Jess Metcalf (Princeton Ecology/Evolution). Sel. Pubs: shorturl.at/rPFJE & shorturl.at/gqIKI

Phylogenetic insights into the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne viruses www.nature.com/articles/s41... Great work by Verity Hill and team

Write-up of our open-source software tool, Grapevne, enabling rapid construction of multi-data type workflows for enhanced pandemic preparedness. It was born out of the need to repeat analyses during the invasion of multiple Variants of Concern. wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/10-...

Competition between transmission lineages mediated by human mobility shapes seasonal influenza epidemics in the US www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Fantastic overview of Chikungunya virus and other emerging arthritogenic alphaviruses www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Really looking forward to this event @oxmartinschool.bsky.social on what turns spillovers into epidemics/pandemics in human populations: www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/events/what-... with exciting speakers. Hosted by the Pandemic Genomics program and moderated by @jessmetcalf.bsky.social

What turns a virus spillover into an epidemic? 🌍🦠 Join leading experts to explore how AI, genomics & ecology shape epidemic forecasting. 📍Oxford Martin School & Online ⏰ May 19 5–6:15pm Register here: https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/events/what-turns-spillovers-into-epidemics

Artificial intelligence and illusions of understanding in scientific research www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Mosquito-borne viral disease sweeping Indian Ocean islands www.science.org/content/arti...

Excellent opportunity for young researchers to gain skills and start their independent careers. marie-sklodowska-curie-actions.ec.europa.eu/news/msca-op...

Europe’s choice is clear. To put science at the heart of its economy. To become the home of scientific freedom and collaboration. And to welcome talent from all over the world. I’m glad to present the first elements of our Choose Europe Initiative. → europa.eu/!TTbWbJ

Really looking forward to this event @oxmartinschool.bsky.social on what turns spillovers into epidemics/pandemics in human populations: www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/events/what-... with exciting speakers. Hosted by the Pandemic Genomics program and moderated by @jessmetcalf.bsky.social

Convergence and consensus www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Why an overreliance on AI-driven modelling can be bad for science. Some good thoughts in here about the distinction between engineering and the natural sciences. www.nature.com/articles/d41...

Five years ago @scarpino.bsky.social www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

No angle needed. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

New preprint by Joseph Tsui (www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/people/josep...) on the detection of viral importations of emerging infectious diseases under low sampling regimes. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1... Critical work for more accurately estimating the timing and intensity of lineage movements.

@nature.com is providing a list to their articles on how science is being reshaped by the new US administration, including a recent piece on the termination of active research grants: www.nature.com/articles/d41...