How you can tell this isn’t my first cyclone (or hurricane)!

Not a bad view from the home office to wrap up a long week!

“It would be a pretty big mistake to dust off our hands and say problem solved. This is going to be an ongoing problem. Even if the issues with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are resolved fairly quickly, oil imports will continue to be a liability for the country.” www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360...

Every effective tool for reducing fuel demand right now (free PT, cycling, EVs, lower speed limits) is a policy the NZ coalition government has spent two years dismantling. My new piece in The Conversation on why they've gone quiet and how they get out of it. theconversation.com/the-governme...

MBIE’s national retail fuel series was basically flat through Jan and most of Feb. Then, from 27 Feb to 27 Mar 2026, diesel rose about $1.42/L, regular petrol about 82c/L, and premium 95 about 85c/L. This is not just a fuel-price story. It is a transport-policy story.

Hard to argue with that. We've seen what he eats...

People rushing to drop $50k on a new EV and commit to years of payments, insurance, registration, WOF, etc. I'm trying to decide whether to replace the $7 kickstand feet on my "EV" or wait another month. Cargo e-bikes would probably work for a lot more people than you'd think.

On Monday, MBIE said we have 54 days of diesel cover. But only 22 days are actually on shore. The rest is on water, most outside the "EEZ", weeks away. The headline number blends fuel that's here with fuel that isn't. The dark bar is what matters most. We're a week past this data now.

Let's take a moment and appreciate how much work public transport in Auckland does every day. Here's an animation of 5 hours of buses, trains, and ferries serving the city yesterday, with somewhere around 400,000 boards across over 5,000 bus stops, train stations, and ferry terminals.

57.7% of NZers, 2.9 million people, can reach public transport within a 10-minute walk. Auckland hits 87.8%. The govt's new fuel subsidy targets 143,000 families. Free fares could reach 20x as many. NZ has the access. What's the argument against?

This monstrosity is burning 3.5 litres of fuel per second.

People in $90,000 utes with 80-litre fuel tanks, call me an elitist for riding a $2.5k ebike that costs $0.10 (yes, 10 CENTS) to charge... (Photo from Reddit)

Yes, and – we'd nuance this, e.g. for Auckland & Wellington (already high usage/ good services), govt could consider options like: • deep discounts for children, young people, CSC holders • and 50% off all fares, or a lower weekly cap ...while focusing fully free fares on smaller cities and towns.

In my latest for @newsroom.co.nz, I argue the government should make public transport free for at least three months. The $50 fuel payment costs $373M/year and doesn't cut a single litre of consumption. Free fares would cost less and actually reduce petrol demand. newsroom.co.nz/2026/03/27/f...

BREAKING: information now coming in that the Dutch have been hoarding the solution to the oil crisis.

Uh oh... MBIE's fuel stock update page has suddenly vanished!

While we're paying more at the pump, fuel importers are making almost nothing. MBIE's own data shows the diesel importer margin has collapsed to near zero. NZ is 100% import-dependent. When there's no margin, either prices rise (a lot) further, or supply doesn't come. There is no third option.

New MBIE data (Mar 22): in-country diesel down to 18 days, territory where the National Fuel Plan contemplates mandatory constraints. Yet we are doing nothing. Only 2 ships arriving in the next 2 weeks, 1 carries diesel. Total supply: 46.6 days, down from 52 in two weeks. Updated graphic below.

With the government's $50/week tax credit, if a family uses all that money for fuel, at current prices around $3.33/litre and a fuel economy of 8L/100km, they could drive 187.5 km. Or just under 27 km a week. How much further could families travel with free public transport?

It'd be cheaper, better address the cost of living, and more effectively reduce fuel demand to make public transport free, at least for a few months, than the $50 the government is now offering. We should consider Green's proposal. CC @julieannegenter.greens.org.nz www.auckland.ac.nz/en/news/2026...

Why isn't the government even talking about the fairly easy voluntary fuel demand constraints that are laid out in the National Fuel Plan? Makes sense to start some of this now. None of this would cost anything.

Realistically, we likely have less than 3 weeks of diesel and under a month of petrol supplies in New Zealand right now. There's an additional 22 and 25 days of both fuels, respectively, on its way to us. Beyond that, who knows... We really need to be seriously talking reducing fuel demand.

No petrol, no problem.

How did I ever communicate before LinkedIn's "reply suggestions"...

Happy Halloween! The scariest thing about tonight isn't the costumes, it's the road safety stats. Halloween sees a 30% spike in crashes involving people walking or cycling w/ 1/3 of these crashes between 4-8pm, peak trick-or-treating hours. Drivers: slow down tonight so everyone gets home safe.

No one send me an email! I don't want to mess up this perfect inbox number. Also, really don't send me an email. I clearly get too many!

This is remarkable!

Spotted Auckland‘s new all-electric ferry the Te Komiti, in the wild!

Haha - well, AI is getting wierd...

NEW STARTER PACK! This time I’m hoping to encourage and support global urbanists from OUTSIDE North America here on Bluesky, so hopefully this will help! Who’ve I missed? Just joined? Let me know! I’ll keep updating, so please keep checking & sharing this pack! And let’s try using #GlobalUrbanists.

Processing connected vehicle and crash data like it's the 1970s...

The NZ Road Safety platform has been redesigned with an improved interface. I've unified the real-time road death tracker, dashboard with current and historical data, and the calendar showing daily road fatalities since 2020. Explore the data and analysis here: nzroads.tfwelch.com

4D chess move. First, central gov't passes laws forcing contractors to use excessive road cones Then, central gov't complains about contractors' excessive use of cones & creates a hotline to report Finally, councils start charging contractors for excessive road cones www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/3607...

Two orange distractions leading the news today…

I could teach an entire course on the importance of infrastructure. Oh wait, I do! In fact I teach 3 courses on infrastructure and it’s still not enough to cover how important this stuff is for our cities and people.

Transforming a car-dominated train station with one small project: ✓ Thousands of e-scooter/e-bike trips ✓ Hundreds of bikes parked (up from just one!) ✓ Public transport use increased ✓ 36.9 tonnes CO₂-eq emissions prevented Partnerships + community = people-first spaces

How NOT to code in R 😬

A graphic from AT's 2016 Auckland Cycling Account. And yet, our national government says that no one wants their rates to pay for cycling infrastructure...

Great example of why flex posts and paint are bullshit

Auckland is wildly off track in reducing its transport emissions, which account for about 41% of its greenhouse gas inventory. Appreciate the opportunity to add my 2¢ to this story, and if you don't already follow @eloisegibson.bsky.social, do it now! www.rnz.co.nz/news/environ...

I saw a few lanes closed for resurfacing. Traffic didn’t collapse. The city kept moving. If this much road space can go unused without chaos, what else could we do with it? People and place over cars and concrete.

📊 New Zealand Road Deaths Calendar: Visualising the human cost of road crashes day by day. Each colored square = a day someone didn't make it home. Explore the interactive version: nzroads.tfwelch.com/calendar/ #RoadSafety #NZ #DataViz

Auckland trains have been shut down 48 days in just 4 months—40% of the time. While the network upgrades continue, buses keep the city moving. Here's what 1 hour of service looks like, animated in real time.

Post-holiday traffic is back, and so are the road fatalities. Be safe out there, please. nzroads.tfwelch.com

One crisis is easing. Another rolls on — quietly, daily, and deadly.

100 lives lost on New Zealand roads this year. But here’s something rare: we’ve just gone 3 days without a single road death — the longest stretch in a long time. Over Easter, just 1 fatality was recorded — still tragic, but fewer than usual. Every day without a death counts. nzroads.tfwelch.com

Hilarious headline hardly a hard-hitting happening.

For anyone interested, I will undercut OpenAI by $5 for doctorate-level HI (Human Intelligence).