Warms the heart

Operating thesis: So-called AI is not actually intelligent if it requires ever increasing energy inputs. Currently, it is simply incredibly powerful computing. Einstein did not become a genius by fueling his body with ever more calories (one presumes).

My sommelier advising on my wine selection.

Not much discussed, but the 30 year inflation-inflation indexed bond just hit its highest real yield of all time: 2.82% over CPI.

Efficient markets? Loews Corporation (#$L) - primarily a P&C insurance operation - trades at 1.2x book value despite not achieving an ROE of 10% a single time in the last 10 yrs. On the other hand, White Mountains Insurance #$WTM has compounded BV at 11% in this period, but still trades below book.

Thought-provoking piece by the wonderful Carlo Rovelli: "There Is No 'Hard Problem of Consciousness" www.noemamag.com/there-is-no-...

The Human Stain Beloved Lolita

"My image has been used to exhaustion and should be retired as an internet meme."

Given so many stocks left for dead, I'm building a group of small holdings I'm calling my "Basket of Deplorables": #$FPH #$ACN #$RHI #$VTS #$WKL.AM #$RAND.AM #$DOM.L #$MACF.L (ok, already a sizeable holding) #$FILA.MI #$FIS Some may suffer greatly - on balance, feeling good enough about these companies.

The look on Alistair’s face says, “Where’s my dinner, old man?”

Accenture #$ACN being decimated in the AI-related sell off coupled with declines to government contracts. It's getting into my zone of temptation.

The indignity of having to check my ears periodically for hairs growing out is something they should have warned me about in school.

I saw the following ad for an infrastructure-focused ETF with the ticker PAVE, but because I'm a pretentious francophile I initially read it as "pavé"

In the era of Trump, I cannot excuse the Democratic voters of Maine (my state) for nominating Graham Platner as their candidate to oppose Susan Collins. His explanations for his Nazi tattoo and racist and homophobic statements are not compelling.

I will be happy when the word "merch" goes out of fashion. That's it -- that is the post.

Every time I hear that AI is taking over the world, I think, “Yeah, and this is what YouTube’s ad algorithm is recommending me?”

The first time I heard Alistair make these noises I thought he was going to eviscerate my flesh.

If you're looking to watch something that brings you into a whole other world, I can't recommend "Honeyland" highly enough. It documents the life of a woman in North Macedonia harvesting honey using traditional methods.

Just back to the U.S. from a couple months in Paris. Alistair is not going to understand why he’s not allowed in restaurants here. (Yeah, I’m one of those people.)

Just reading Peter Beinart’s book. An honest attempt at a moral reckoning. I always find Beinart an essential American Jewish voice.

Tempted by the recent sell-off in Howden Joinery #$HWDN.L on no real negative news. The market loved the annual results but not Q1 which wasn't noticeably bad. I'm a glutton for UK equity punishment.

I love that a serious academic work is advertised with this excellent pun.

Israel murders tens of thousands in Gaza, but Bret Stephens of @nytimes.com finds the banality of evil in the White House Correspondents Dinner shooter.

I would just like to point out that Jared Kushner is less qualified than I am to negotiate a settlement with Iran. And I am entirely unqualified.

Insane that Intel #$INTC is valued more highly now than when it used to make money.

TORTILLA

I do not like this gold rallying with stocks regime.

Was planning to post a picture of myself as Jesus on here this week but some guy pre-empted me.

I find this result disturbing, but it about tracks with my estimation of the moral character of the average American: 53% of Americans polled do not “strongly dislike” Trump’s statement that a “whole civilization will die tonight”

I was thinking to myself, “Who could the U.S. call on to effectively negotiate with Iran?”

Q1 2026 Portfolio Top Ten (individual stocks only; a bunch in ETFs etc. excluded). Disclaimer: I know absolutely nothing.

In revolutionary France, Maximillian Robespierre is reputed to have said , "The King must die so that the country can live." In the dystopic present, I say, "The bond market must crash so that the world can live."

"History will judge-" let me stop you right fucking there, history doesn't do fucking shit, I'm a historian, let's be clear here: elected officials need to do their fucking jobs, right now, before it happens, or future historians will judge THEM. Everyone knows and knew who Trump was.

If I said something like this, my friends and family would stage an intervention. Americans chose to make him president

If my current self had told my childhood self that I was checking the price of Western Canadian Select crude oil prices each day, my childhood self would have (not incorrectly) responded, "You're a complete loser."

Paris never disappoints.

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Question for you: supposing there was deescalation / reopening of SOH relatively soon, what does that portend for crude oil prices going forward? Is there likely to be some risk premium on contracts into the foreseeable future?

Trump making the bad guy flee.

Fascinating that #$ODFL, a favorite holding of Compounder Bros, is up 20% year-to-date. It is heavily dependent on diesel, which has increased more than gasoline prices (over 50% YTD). Still trading at > 35x fwd PE. I have to admit I don't get it.

One area where you can say that Trump's "special operation" in Iran has been successful: there has been little discussion of the Epstein files.

So long Scott Bessent's 3-3-3 plan. We hardly knew ye.

Serious question: does the European Union have any measures in place for when Viktor Orban steals the election in Hungary in two weeks?

#$HAL makes nice little disposal to private equity. Not a crazy rate of return but steady as she goes. @berkshire-haddaway.bsky.social

And the award for the saddest excuse for a New York Times conservative columnist goes to…

The likely outcome of this “don’t call it a war” is something like the Obama JCPOA, which Trump so eagerly jettisoned. But the average American is so uninformed and uncurious that they will not remotely realize this fact (or have any idea of the Obama JCPOA).

This was the TACO level after “Liberation Day”. The problem is that Iran runs this taqueria.

Very long bond nearing 5%. This is where the Treasury capitulated after "Liberation Day" (difficult to type that ridiculous name)

This is going to be the GOAT of didn’t age well takes