“I watched him die… then I watched them maneuver his body like a rag doll— only to discover it was because they wanted to count the bullet wounds and see how many they ‘got’, like he was a deer.”

I’m not surprised by the new @research-fri.bsky.social results. I didn’t think forecasting agents were close when I wrote about them last summer, but what I’ve seen recently has been extremely impressive. open.substack.com/pub/forecast...

Elliott has updated his estimates of Trump approval by Congressional District. Trump has negative approval in *every* competitive Congressional seat (in many cases massively so). There is no political downside to opposing authoritarianism. projects.gelliottmorris.com/trump-approv...

"Once we accept it’s okay to disregard the interests of others—that there’s no need to treat others the way we’d want to be treated ourselves—there’s no compelling reason to act any differently toward our fellow citizens and neighbors." tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/the-americ...

We're back! The liberal Joe Rogans we deserve tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/nonprophet...

I honestly don't think Trump's presidency would improve if he were more awake

You don’t have to know anything about Donald Trump or the price of eggs to predict Democrats are likely to retake the House in 2026

Can't decide if I'm proud or ashamed of this

Mantic CEO and co-founder Toby Shevlane tells me he thinks they’re close to producing AI that can compete with top human forecasters, although he acknowledges that right now AI models still don’t really know that probabilities have to add up to 1 tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/toby-shevl...

I just got a letter from HMSA estimating that under current policy my monthly health insurance payments will go up 123% next year @hirono.senate.gov @schatz.bsky.social

Hannah Arendt’s description of the conditions that gave rise to totalitarianism sound a lot like the US today tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/american-t...

Hell is empty and all the devils have received commuted sentences

This will allow Qatar to reach US targets

The latest ForecastBench results from @research-fri.bsky.social suggest that LLMs could be competitive with superforecasters in as soon as a year forecastingresearch.substack.com/p/ai-llm-for...

This is just like how if you don't want to be robbed you have to opt out with everyone who might rob you

My thoughts on Charlie Kirk, Jimmy Kimmel, and the need to live with people with whom we disagree. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/we-must-no...

I had a fascinating conversation with @research-fri.bsky.social CEO Josh Rosenberg about cutting-edge forecasting research, including new results from the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT) and the ForecastBench project on AI forecasting. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...

If I stop a video and scroll down from it, I obviously don't want it popping it up over the text of an article

🎙️ Our CEO, Josh Rosenberg, went on @deneufville.bsky.social's podcast podcast, Talking About The Future. They discussed LLM biorisks, AI forecasters, how to make forecasting more useful to policy makers and much more. Listen here: tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...

Once again I did not ascend into heaven today

What did Trump mean when he wrote that he and Epstein had done “a deed without a name”

Mike will have talked about his book with Steve Bannon, Michael Kosta, and me

I will note that while Harvard's case was incredibly strong, they still quietly enacted many of the exact demands of the Trump administration such as limiting protests, eliminating DEI and supports for minority students, and targeting middle eastern studies curriculum. bsky.app/profile/esqu...

JUST IN: Harvard won summary judgment against the Trump administration with the court finding that the admin violated Harvard's 1st amend. rights. The court has vacated the funding freeze orders and termination letters and issued a permanent injunction. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

This has gone too far www.nytimes.com/2025/09/01/o...?

I wish someone at Safeway would tell me what I should do if I have my club card

This is absolutely insane

We're making AI in our own image. It's not always pretty. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/through-ai...

"I didn’t really get it until I lay helpless on the floor of my apartment waiting for paramedics to arrive; I didn’t really feel it until I needed help to use a walker to shuffle across the neurology ward." tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/reflection...

"Probabilistic forecasting is a challenge for AI because future events aren’t part of any training data; AI can’t memorize answers that are still unknown." tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/language-m...

This was, uh, memorable! I was on after MTG and before Alex Jones. Highlight was Bannon saying: "Man, Grunwald, everyone's gonna hate your book!"

Trump 2017: "It is my pleasure and my honor to announce my nomination of Jerome Powell." Trump today: "He's a terrible Fed chair. I was surprised he was appointed. I was surprised frankly that Biden put him in and extended him." Every news story will include both clips, right?

I'm pretty sure this is just how Mike dresses

I had a chance to talk with journalist @mikegrunwald.bsky.social about his new book and about how all the meat we eat is deforesting the Earth. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/michael-gr...

Mobilization has also been nationwide. Anecdotal evidence suggests that some activists are intentionally demonstrating in their local town rather than just traveling to a nearby big city for events.

From my undergraduate lecture notes on the Weimar Republic's collapse

I had a chance to talk with Harvard Government Professor @ryanenos.bsky.social about how the Trump administration's attacks on Harvard and higher education are part of the administration's authoritarian program.

🧵 When authoritarian leaders attack judges as "enemies," history shows us exactly where this leads. Trump's assault on "USA HATING JUDGES" isn't just inflammatory rhetoric—it's following a script written by strongmen worldwide. But other countries show us how to fight back.

"AI is a revolutionary technology, but it’s also a product. Companies aren’t investing hundreds of billions of dollars on the speculative prospect AI will someday cure cancer. They’re developing AI primarily because it has the potential to automate and replace human labor in the near future."

I highly recommend this invaluable conversation between @qjurecic.bsky.social and @lgamboa.bsky.social on how to oppose authoritarian takeover

"But presidents are not supposed to treat the Constitution the way a private lawyer treats the tax code—that is, as an adverse force to be defeated." @richardprimus.bsky.social argues Trump is Holmes' "bad man" who doesn't care about the meaning of the law but only about what he can get away with.

Appeasement, as Churchill warned, is like feeding a crocodile and hoping to be the last one eaten. Levitsky, Way, and me today in New York Times www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/o...

Beautiful, essential remarks on the importance of the rule of law from @richardprimus.bsky.social

Yesterday, the podcast Talking About the Future posted an episode in which Robert de Neufville interviews me about the current state of the U.S. constitutional regime and also a bit about my forthcoming book on federal power. You can find the podcast episode below. open.substack.com/pub/richardp...