"No country should be devoted to gratifying the ego of one man. The truth is that anyone who demands the world revolve around him probably isn’t really concerned with the needs of others." tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/american-i...

“When we boot up the data, it’s obvious the main reason Harris lost…is that 2024 simply had too much inflation-induced anti-incumbent sentiment for the incumbent party to overcome. This is curiously missing from its main diagnosis. The word ‘inflation’ isn’t mentioned in the autopsy a single time.”

Geopolitical prediction markets "incentivize treason and fraud, create constituencies that benefit from escalation, and give structural advantages to unconstrained actors."

New podcast! I had a fascinating conversation with @seva.bsky.social about the instability and unpredictability of an international order dominated by personalist regimes. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/seva-gunit...

We found a kitten during Hawaii's recent rainstorms. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/tacoma-the...

It turns out the US can't just bludgeon the rest of the world into submission tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/new-year-n...

If I were one of Elon Musk’s children I’d be worried he was going to harvest my organs

Grammatically, something from Dubai is “dubious”

"If you’re a believer, this looks like the start of a “takeoff” scenario in which AI development accelerates exponentially as it is increasingly able to improve its own capabilities." tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/something-...

It comes down to whether Democrats can win Alaska and at least one other solidly red state. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/could-the-...

‘Do You Speak Billionaire?’ and Other Stories From the Fall of the Washington Post talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/do-yo...

We just submitted our sweet cat Juniper to be featured on the side of a Hawaiian Humane Society van as part of a fundraising contest. If want to support the amazing work the Humane Society does with animals, you can vote for Juniper here! www.gogophotocontest.com/lovedrivesus...

“I watched him die… then I watched them maneuver his body like a rag doll— only to discover it was because they wanted to count the bullet wounds and see how many they ‘got’, like he was a deer.”

I’m not surprised by the new @research-fri.bsky.social results. I didn’t think forecasting agents were close when I wrote about them last summer, but what I’ve seen recently has been extremely impressive. open.substack.com/pub/forecast...

"Once we accept it’s okay to disregard the interests of others—that there’s no need to treat others the way we’d want to be treated ourselves—there’s no compelling reason to act any differently toward our fellow citizens and neighbors." tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/the-americ...

We're back! The liberal Joe Rogans we deserve tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/nonprophet...

I honestly don't think Trump's presidency would improve if he were more awake

You don’t have to know anything about Donald Trump or the price of eggs to predict Democrats are likely to retake the House in 2026

Can't decide if I'm proud or ashamed of this

Mantic CEO and co-founder Toby Shevlane tells me he thinks they’re close to producing AI that can compete with top human forecasters, although he acknowledges that right now AI models still don’t really know that probabilities have to add up to 1 tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/toby-shevl...

Hannah Arendt’s description of the conditions that gave rise to totalitarianism sound a lot like the US today tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/american-t...

Hell is empty and all the devils have received commuted sentences

This will allow Qatar to reach US targets

The latest ForecastBench results from @research-fri.bsky.social suggest that LLMs could be competitive with superforecasters in as soon as a year forecastingresearch.substack.com/p/ai-llm-for...

This is just like how if you don't want to be robbed you have to opt out with everyone who might rob you

My thoughts on Charlie Kirk, Jimmy Kimmel, and the need to live with people with whom we disagree. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/we-must-no...

I had a fascinating conversation with @research-fri.bsky.social CEO Josh Rosenberg about cutting-edge forecasting research, including new results from the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT) and the ForecastBench project on AI forecasting. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...

If I stop a video and scroll down from it, I obviously don't want it popping it up over the text of an article

🎙️ Our CEO, Josh Rosenberg, went on @deneufville.bsky.social's podcast podcast, Talking About The Future. They discussed LLM biorisks, AI forecasters, how to make forecasting more useful to policy makers and much more. Listen here: tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...

Once again I did not ascend into heaven today

What did Trump mean when he wrote that he and Epstein had done “a deed without a name”

Mike will have talked about his book with Steve Bannon, Michael Kosta, and me

I will note that while Harvard's case was incredibly strong, they still quietly enacted many of the exact demands of the Trump administration such as limiting protests, eliminating DEI and supports for minority students, and targeting middle eastern studies curriculum. bsky.app/profile/esqu...

JUST IN: Harvard won summary judgment against the Trump administration with the court finding that the admin violated Harvard's 1st amend. rights. The court has vacated the funding freeze orders and termination letters and issued a permanent injunction. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

This has gone too far www.nytimes.com/2025/09/01/o...?

I wish someone at Safeway would tell me what I should do if I have my club card

This is absolutely insane

We're making AI in our own image. It's not always pretty. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/through-ai...

"I didn’t really get it until I lay helpless on the floor of my apartment waiting for paramedics to arrive; I didn’t really feel it until I needed help to use a walker to shuffle across the neurology ward." tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/reflection...

"Probabilistic forecasting is a challenge for AI because future events aren’t part of any training data; AI can’t memorize answers that are still unknown." tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/language-m...

This was, uh, memorable! I was on after MTG and before Alex Jones. Highlight was Bannon saying: "Man, Grunwald, everyone's gonna hate your book!"

Trump 2017: "It is my pleasure and my honor to announce my nomination of Jerome Powell." Trump today: "He's a terrible Fed chair. I was surprised he was appointed. I was surprised frankly that Biden put him in and extended him." Every news story will include both clips, right?

I'm pretty sure this is just how Mike dresses

I had a chance to talk with journalist @mikegrunwald.bsky.social about his new book and about how all the meat we eat is deforesting the Earth. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/michael-gr...

Mobilization has also been nationwide. Anecdotal evidence suggests that some activists are intentionally demonstrating in their local town rather than just traveling to a nearby big city for events.

From my undergraduate lecture notes on the Weimar Republic's collapse

I had a chance to talk with Harvard Government Professor @ryanenos.bsky.social about how the Trump administration's attacks on Harvard and higher education are part of the administration's authoritarian program.