Excellent (long and detailed) piece here on the attractions of financial data and securities exchanges business, almost all of which have delivered spectacular long-term returns.

The UK wind power economics paradox: ❌️ When the wind doesn't blow, you don't make any money because the wind isn't blowing. ❌️ When the wind does blow, you don't make any money because the grid is oversupplied and power prices plunge (or go negative).

Some sensible looking ideas here from Artemis UK smallcap equity manager Mark Niznik.

Same pattern with the craft beer category in the UK. Huge amounts of capital invested in small breweries: Almost all lose money whilst also crushing profitability of the mega-brewers.

Payments company Fiserv is down nearly 50% from its YTD high. Slight trim to revenue guidance, but company is forecasting $5.5bn of FCF for this year and is applying it all to buybacks. 🟢 8% FCF yield. 🟢 Double-digit top-line growth.

Lots of favourite high growth names have valuation multiples which look like this at the moment, and I think the reason is that aggressive growth investors have switched out of these into perceived AI winners.

Keep thinking about this. Every week in my day job, I come across US firms issuing bonds with leverage >6x EBITDA, and then I look at the UK stock market, where I can buy businesses on a debt-free basis at 5x EBITDA.

Good discussion here with Nick Train, a fund manager who has arguably been too dogmatic in the past, sticking to consumer staples companies as valuations became extended and fundamentals deteriorated, but has since developed his process to identify digital/data businesses as a new opportunity.

Incredible performance metrics from the MSCI World Momentum Index. Has outperformed MSCI World by nearly 3% per year, with fewer negative years, 0.9x beta, similar stdev, lower max drawdown, and trades at roughly same P/E ratio and dividend yield. AMAZING!

Good morning from Highland Perthshire.

Trimmed back my Alphabet holding today. Even after the move, it's not on an unusually high multiple. However, with enormous AI investments, it looks like FCF conversion and ROIC is decreasing. Makes sense to reduce exposure somewhat (still largest position).

Crazy how much decay and dereliction there is in Scotland once you get outside Edinburgh/Glasgow and the favoured commuter spots. Cycled through this place today: it is 45mins on the train from both Glasgow and Edinburgh!

@conorsen.bsky.social I really enjoyed piece on Bloomberg this week about the US labour market.

Slowly getting radicalised against the UK state. Elderly immigrant claims disability benefits for obesity-driven conditions. Breaches tenancy agrement by moving wife and children into his senior living accommodation. Family causes disturbances. Fights eviction proceedings on human rights grounds.

Hard not to notice the juxtaposition between Charlie Kirk advocating free speech and what seems to be a massive social media hunt for everyone who said unpleasant things about him after his death.

Good note here from Colebrooke Partners setting out the investment case for smallcap UK packaging manufacturer and distributor Macfarlane, MACF. (I own it).

European economy just goes from crisis to crisis.

I'm really enjoying the strike-proof automated trains on the Paris Metro this week.

Feels like UK political content over on Twitter is getting more insane by the day. I'm increasingly suspicious that much of it is bots, foreign (Russian/Iranian/Chinese) govt agents, and people doing it simply for the ad-revenue sharing scheme.

I'm not sure enough is said about the crisis in UK healthcare. The number of working age people with disabilities has more doubled from <4% to >8% since the turn of the millennium.

Narrative violation: UK business confidence edition. Lloyds Business Barometer hits a post-Brexit high.

Many people on here are attacking either Starmer or Farage over their immigration policies, but what I don't see anywhere are alternative ideas to deal with the issue. People think immigration is (almost) the most important issue facing the country, and a majority believe immigration is too high.

If you're an UK higher rate taxpayer who owns the ⅛ Jan 2026 Gilt, now is a good time to start thinking about rolling exposure into the ⅛ Jan 2028. Your yield goes up from 3.22% to 3.74%.

Devalue your Fx to the ground to make foreign earnings look good and keep the domestic stock market afloat… If it worked for Zimbabwe …

I'm very surprised to see how mediocre NASDAQ performance has been this year for UK investors.

I don't usually look at inflation-linked bonds, but I took a look at Gilts today and I was shocked to see yields of RPI +0.5-1% at the short end and RPI +2-2.5% at the long end.

Regardless of the rights and wrongs of Trump's immigration crackdown in the US, the data shows that it's working, so it's probably only a matter of time before a politician pitches a similar strategy for the UK.

I was out and about in the Scottish Borders at the weekend, and it's noticeable how Jaguar Land Rover has completely and totally sacrificed its position in the farming/rural vehicle market to foreign brand pick-up trucks.

Great podcast discussing CME Group (Chicago Mercantile Exchange), the world's leading futures exchange. It's a growing, cash generative, highly profitable monopoly. [I own it] open.spotify.com/episode/5Obm...

If you look really closely at the chart, you'll still be unable to see where Rachel Reeves destroyed the UK's public finances.

Fascinating to see how far down the list "Education & Childcare" comes. I guess this is the result of UK society gradually becoming a gerontocracy.

YIMBYs: "Let's change planning rules to enable more housebuilding". Conservatives: "Let's change planning rules to enable trailer parks".

Incentives at work: Any FOMC member who aspires to the big job has to vote in favour of rate cuts, ideally 50bps, at the September meeting.

This one deserves its own thread regarding the power of mega-cap technology companies.

Solar is delivering 29% of UK power demand at the moment.

Wait! I thought London was dying and millionaires were leaving?

Europoors will be surprised to learn that a growing proportion of US households don't have access to running water.

US high yield bonds are so far completely oblivious to the mounting evidence of slowing growth and rising inflation.

This was a *very* bad report. Employment down, implies ~4% annualized core PCE, and demand is clearly weak given new orders. *US JULY ISM SERVICES PMI FALLS TO 50.1 FROM 50.8; EST. 51.5

Currently planning how to spend my £157m win tomorrow.

Give yourself a couple shots at a new name, make sure top positions aren’t overly correlated, cut quickly when things go south…pretty soon you’ve got a process that doesn’t rely on being the best stock picker every single year

Typical active manager approach nowadays is to be highly concentrated and high active share. Buffett approach is very different - start diversified, then build into winners over time as they prove themselves.

Really good summary of how Warren Buffett/Berkshire Hathaway manage equity portfolio concentration. Summary, it's a very gradual process. They start off diversified, then they let winners run and add further. They definitely don't go to max position size on day one.

The Online Safety Act is fine. It's perfectly reasonable to age-verify adult content. But the adult sites have screwed things up with terrible systems.

The Italians don't mess around. The lakes - especially at the southern end - are incredibly well developed. And yet they still look stunning, attracting millions of visitors from around the world. It's hard to imagine the UK developing the Lake District in a similar way.

Essential reading for equity investors. "The Alchemy of Multibagger Stocks" by Anna Yartseva.

Seems almost impossible now to open either social media or mainstream media online without being marinated in anti-immigration anger.

Hard to see how this is anything other than a permanent negative shock to the margins and returns of mainstream grocery retailers and branded consumer goods companies.

If an economy isn't growing, then all political decisions become battles about how to slice the pie. Giving someone a bigger slice means less for someone else. It makes for toxic politics.

Normal day in UK smallcaps. Stock trips circuit breakers and then fully recovers by the closing auction. No news.