Many people are comparing the risk of the AI build-out to the fibre broadband build-out. However, the latter was founded on the assumption that Internet traffic was doubling every 100 days. This turned out to be very wrong. Who popularised that assumption? WorldCom.

I think this is one of the most important factors in the UK economy at the moment.

Happy Thanksgiving to all my followers in the United States! Let's see your turkey pictures in the replies! 😋😋

So, lifting the 2-child benefit cap is not only an incredibly expensive policy, it also has net negative popularity. Fiscally costly, and politically costly.

From the Mirror today on the lifting of the 2-child benefit cap. This woman gets her net income topped-up to £6,412/month. In Scotland, you need to earn ~£130,000 per year to have this net monthly income.

"No one is investing in the UK".

This move in Alphabet stock is really going to trash 2025 relative performance for so many active equity managers. Brutal.

It feels like my Substack feed is now entirely taken up by descriptive "deep dives" on individual stocks, and anthologies of investing "wisdom", almost all of which are written by AI. Just dreadful to wade through it all.

I can highly recommend the winter light show at Edinburgh Zoo!

So many US equity market darlings have been absolutely crushed this year.

UK building materials names firms looking interesting here. 🇬🇧 ✅️ FCF +ve at >10% ROICs. ✅️ 10yr-low multiples. ✅️ MSD TSR over last decade, despite tough economy & de-rating. ✅️ Low debt or net cash balance sheets. ✅️ Sentiment negative about UK cyclicals. ✅️ BoE cutting over next year. ✅️ Good dividends.

I think we can now safely say that this credit cycle peaked about 1 year ago. Single B spreads failed to even re-test the lows this summer, and have since been leaking wider.

A lot of left-wing politicians and activists absolutely losing their minds over the UK immigration reforms. Who would have thought that aligning with Denmark would have caused such a big issue. 🇩🇰

Wow. Reform vs Green reps arguing on Newsnight is a grim look into our political future.

while the headline indices have barely moved off the highs, the carnage in the low quality hype stuff like quantum computing, nuclear energy etc is quite something just month to date:

At what point does the UK stop blaming problems on poor leaders and considers if the rot goes much deeper?

Really good list of investing maxims from Angus Tulloch, who retired in 2017 with an excellent long-term track record of managing the Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Fund.

Added Greggs plc to my PA portfolio. ✅️ Leading vertically integrated UK food on-the-go business. ✅️ Consistently delivering ROIC >20% ✅️ +6.1% lfl sales in 3Q25. ✅️ Zero net financial debt. ✅️ Decade low EV/EBITDA multiple. ✅️ 11.9x P/E ratio (2026 consensus) ✅️ 4.4% dividend yield (well-covered)

Nick Train after seeing Diageo's trading update today.

Absolute banger of a Grand Designs this week. Is £2m enough? Not even close! Spectacular optimism/hubris!

Superb work from @tomcalver.bsky.social and @jburnmurdoch.ft.com showing how the UK's upper-middle classes have born the brunt of our 20yr long productivity stagnation, whereas lower earners have been insulated from this via ongoing minimum wage hikes, compressing earnings across the spectrum.

Revealed preference at work...

UK soft power at work: Currently sat in a Parisian restaurant, with a filet de bœuf and a glass of Côtes du Rhône, being served by a waiter who answers me in English whilst I watch Swansea score against Man City in the Carabao Cup.

One of the best TV shows out there: 24 Hours in Police Custody. This two-part murder investigation documentary is gripping viewing.

The most insane thing you will read today (if you have the stomach for it).

Worst thing about Bluesky has to be the people who constantly cross-post the most toxic Twitter content along with a comment along the lines of "look how bad this is". Really no need for this. We all know that it's bad. We don't need people feeding it the oxygen of attention.

You should have more stocks in your portfolio as it is more likely to generate higher returns. Diversification isn’t just about reducing idiosyncratic risk, it's also about giving yourself more chance of holding the big winners.

Macfarlane shares down 18.5% on a profit warning linked to a fatal accident at one of their manufacturing plants. (I own it).

Sharing a few choice paragraphs from this in the thread below. ⬇️

Some Europoors here, enjoying being poor.

Whilst it's nice to see one of my largest holdings up 20%, I think the current valuation multiple is an absolute steal, and I would be annoyed to lose it at this level.

UK savings ratio is currently on a par with recessions of early 80s, 90s, and GFC.

Good introduction here to Pernod-Ricard, one of the world's leading spirits companies.

Just watching Grand Designs. A couple had to wait 2 years to get a "bat licence" before they could demolish a house prior to starting a new build. Once the demolition finally began... no bats. 🤣 Regulations like this are absolutely choking our economy.

Substantially reduced my position in Starbucks ($SBUX). Held since Jan 2019 for a 43% TSR (5.5%pa). Ongoing execution problems since last year, and now priced for a rebound that might be much slower than expected. Currently 19x EV/EBITDA and a 2.4% FCF yield.

Why consumer staples stocks aren't as attractive as in the past: 1️⃣ Hard discounters sell fewer branded goods -> Mkt share loss. 2️⃣ Traditional retailers increase private label mix in response -> same. 3️⃣ Social media lowers barriers to entry for new rivals. 4️⃣ 3rd party distribution (Amazon) -> same.

Excellent (long and detailed) piece here on the attractions of financial data and securities exchanges business, almost all of which have delivered spectacular long-term returns.

The UK wind power economics paradox: ❌️ When the wind doesn't blow, you don't make any money because the wind isn't blowing. ❌️ When the wind does blow, you don't make any money because the grid is oversupplied and power prices plunge (or go negative).

Some sensible looking ideas here from Artemis UK smallcap equity manager Mark Niznik.

Same pattern with the craft beer category in the UK. Huge amounts of capital invested in small breweries: Almost all lose money whilst also crushing profitability of the mega-brewers.

Payments company Fiserv is down nearly 50% from its YTD high. Slight trim to revenue guidance, but company is forecasting $5.5bn of FCF for this year and is applying it all to buybacks. 🟢 8% FCF yield. 🟢 Double-digit top-line growth.

Lots of favourite high growth names have valuation multiples which look like this at the moment, and I think the reason is that aggressive growth investors have switched out of these into perceived AI winners.

Keep thinking about this. Every week in my day job, I come across US firms issuing bonds with leverage >6x EBITDA, and then I look at the UK stock market, where I can buy businesses on a debt-free basis at 5x EBITDA.

Good discussion here with Nick Train, a fund manager who has arguably been too dogmatic in the past, sticking to consumer staples companies as valuations became extended and fundamentals deteriorated, but has since developed his process to identify digital/data businesses as a new opportunity.

Incredible performance metrics from the MSCI World Momentum Index. Has outperformed MSCI World by nearly 3% per year, with fewer negative years, 0.9x beta, similar stdev, lower max drawdown, and trades at roughly same P/E ratio and dividend yield. AMAZING!

Good morning from Highland Perthshire.

Trimmed back my Alphabet holding today. Even after the move, it's not on an unusually high multiple. However, with enormous AI investments, it looks like FCF conversion and ROIC is decreasing. Makes sense to reduce exposure somewhat (still largest position).

Crazy how much decay and dereliction there is in Scotland once you get outside Edinburgh/Glasgow and the favoured commuter spots. Cycled through this place today: it is 45mins on the train from both Glasgow and Edinburgh!

@conorsen.bsky.social I really enjoyed piece on Bloomberg this week about the US labour market.

Slowly getting radicalised against the UK state. Elderly immigrant claims disability benefits for obesity-driven conditions. Breaches tenancy agrement by moving wife and children into his senior living accommodation. Family causes disturbances. Fights eviction proceedings on human rights grounds.