Drama averted at NATO. After calling for an exemption to the 5% new spending target, Spanish sources say NATO will indeed provide “flexibility” to Madrid. This was communicated via letter from Rutte. Spanish say no issues approving Allied declaration as a result, per sources.

Von der Leyen out now with a statement that tries to walk a fine line between support (“Iran must never acquire the bomb”) and veiled criticism (“respect for international law is critical”) of US actions

Spanish are serious about their rejection to 5%. They argue it will rush off-the-shelf purchases, making a mess of interoperability and undermine made in Europe. Funding at EU-level unresolved. And - food for thought - target incompatible with the European welfare state. See you at The Hague

Israel approved plans on Monday to take full control of the Gaza Strip and remain in the territory for an unspecified period, according to two Israeli officials.

«Asked whether he would accept a 10 per cent levy as a floor in trade talks, Sefcovic said the EU regarded that as a “very high level”, suggesting that the bloc would not settle for a deal that kept tariffs at that level.» www.ft.com/content/2d7c...

"That said, the notion of recession is less well-defined in European countries with low potential growth ... [there is] a low bar for a technical recession in Europe." Ouch, Goldman Sachs. Too mean.

Spanish PM confirms what sources had briefed earlier - in the space of five seconds, 15 GW were “suddenly lost” from system or the equivalent of 60% of total energy demand at that time. Drop led to worst blackout in modern history. PM says not ruling out any scenario.

Von der Leyen met Trump very briefly on the sidelines. No bilateral sitdown expected today. Top spox say they “agreed to meet” without providing further details on timing or format. A separate official told me you don’t solve a trade spat during a funeral. It was an icebreaker.

Tras el muy comentado viaje de Pedro Sánchez a Pekín, mi entrevista con el ministro de exteriores Albares. Estados Unidos, China y una política exterior que no quieren elegir bandos. Sin embargo la política comercial y la guerra arancelaria arrastra al desacople. legrandcontinent.eu/es/2025/04/1...

EU trade chief confirms 70pc of European exports to the US are facing tariffs. Also important says “USA views tariffs not as a tactical step, but a corrective measure.”

Summing up the week

Des grands médias aux chancelleries, depuis l'émergence du concept d'Hypnocratie dans les pages du Grand Continent, Jianwei Xun fascine. Aujourd'hui, nous dévoilons le dispositif au cœur de sa véritable identité. legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/04/0...

«The problem with the anti-coercion instrument is that it has never been used before, so it will have to be drafted very carefully to make sure it is effective, but also taking into account the precedent it might set. I would have thought we would have used it against China first.»

«Trump II tariffs will be much worse, but the administration underestimates the reaction of the rest of the world. The irony is that Trump may end up reviving the rules-based multilateral trading system – without the US» geopolitique.eu/en/2025/04/0...

A diplomat said to me last week White House underestimating effect Liberation Day will have on the rest of the world. Today: « South Korea, China and Japan held their first economic dialogue in five years, seeking to facilitate regional trade.» www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

Deutsche Bank in note «In our view, this is a historic fiscal regime shift, arguably the largest since German reunification. Yet fiscal expansion does not guarantee success: the next government will need to deliver structural reforms to turn this fiscal package into sustainable growth.»

Enorme manifestación la que se está produciendo en #Belgrado en estos momentos, contra la corrupción del gobierno de Aleksandar Vučić. La mayor protesta de los últimos 25 años. #Serbia

Italy’s Giorgetti «Germany is now doing whatever the hell they want because (the rules) no longer suit them, so they do the opposite. Naturally, without consulting anyone». This is very much aimed for domestic consumption, yet harsh from a usually mild-mannered minister www.ansa.it/sito/notizie...

What does “France and other EU represented countries” mean?

About today

Dear Americans, dear Ukrainians, don’t waste this chance. The whole world is watching you in Jeddah today. Good luck!

Since taking over DOGE, Elon Musk has lost more of his own wealth than DOGE has managed to save from the budget.

EU trade chief Sefcovic says travelled to DC last month in the spirit of finding solutions but «one hand can’t clap without the other - and the USA administration doesn’t seem to be engaging to make a deal.» Asked multiple times if tariffs can still be avoided - says EU watched over its interests

In his speech to Congress, President Trump claimed that Europe spends more on Russian oil and gas than on supporting Ukraine. This is false. In 2024, European spending to support Ukraine doubled its spending on Russian oil and gas imports. And this has been increasing steady over time.

Top European diplomat Kallas from NATO HQ «We shouldn’t take anything off the table. It plays into Russia’s hands. Why are we giving them everything they want even before negotiations begin? Appeasement has never worked. A deal without the Europeans and Ukraine? It won’t work.»

- if peacekeepers were to be deployed, it must be a non-NATO mission and article 5 not applicable - rules out US troops in Ukraine

Hegseth lays out framework ahead of MSC: - return to 2014 borders unrealistic - rules out Ukraine Nato membership - security guarantees have to be robust (no Minsk 3.0) but clear that is mostly a responsibility for Europeans (Zelensky had said prior it wouldn’t be enough)

«When targeted unfairly or arbitrarily - the European Union will respond firmly» says Ursula von der Leyen after Brussels summit.

Polish PM Tusk hits the nail on the head «why choose conflict among Allies? We have to everything to avoid a stupid and totally unnecessary tariff war but at the same time during our talks with our American friends we can’t lose right of our European interests and self-respect.»

Trump hit Latin America fast and furious. Except for Venezuela. Preserving the status quo is good enough for Maduro. Unique window for the EU to expand relations via CELAC and Mercosur. But that means ratification. The German/Spanish argument this is geopolitics as much as trade amplified x 100

Milei mentioned the term woke 16 times in his Davos speech this year - compared to 0 references in 2024. La motosierra started mostly as economic shock therapy but it’s morphing. For Milei, it’s not just about taming inflation, it’s civilizational. legrandcontinent.eu/es/2025/01/2...

The US president insisted he was serious in his determination to take over Greenland in a fiery telephone call with Denmark’s prime minister www.ft.com/content/ace0...

Marco Rubio has had calls with the foreign ministers of Poland, Latvia and Lithuania individually. European top diplomat Kallas hopes to get one soon but no timing yet - per official today. Needless to say, the EU favors 27 jointly over case by case.

The Spanish say they are serious about this proposal - three pillars - more transparency on algorithm and user identification (not necessarily public, nickname, alias etc but connected to real ID) will be pitched during the March EUCO summit.

Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez says he will pitch measures to end anonymity on social media in the next EU Council. He tells Davos « you can’t mail a package without showing an ID, yet roam freely without linking a profile to a real identity» argues toxic for public debate & misinformation

Von der Leyen’s top spox said earlier « attempts » to schedule a meeting with Trump have been made, but no specific date. Asked whether VDL coordinated with Meloni, says « it’s a ceremony, not a meeting » there was no particular message.

Thoughts ahead of next week

«Il faut mettre fin au chantage nucléaire de Poutine». Une conversation menée par @mariatad.bsky.social avec @glandsbergis.bsky.social, ancien ministre des Affaires étrangères de Lituanie. legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/01/1...

Meloni in press conference - «I don’t agree with everything Elon Musk says but he’s not a danger to democracy. What’s the real issue…he’s rich, influential and doesn’t support the left? Meloni also suggests Soros meddled far more than Musk in EU affairs. «That’s also political interference.»

The Magic Mountain turns 100 - Le Grand Continent is publishing a dedicated series. Our conversation with Merve Emre sharp in her observations but also generous with her time. Both essential to read Mann. legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2024/12/2...

Luca de Meo, car supremo and boss of Renault, at Brussels conference says Europeans want to drive cars but increasingly can’t afford the cost. «That’s a sign of a European middle class with less purchasing power» it’s serious question.

Summing up my thoughts for the week - a deal struck for the next College of Commissioners that offers some clues about the state of play.

”Trump sera ferme et décisif : c’est ce qui a manqué à l’administration Biden. Est-ce une bonne nouvelle pour l’Ukraine ? Je pense quant à moi que oui — car le statu quo saignait l’Ukraine à blanc.” legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2024/11/1...

Both Fitto and Ribera are confirmed. Hungary’s pick - seen as the weakest link - goes through with a slim portfolio. Kallas approved in tonight’s package deal. The College is complete and von der Leyen’s Commission 2.0 moves on as scheduled. Tutto cambia perché nulla cambi.

A rather difficult sequence for Scholz, cautious Chancellor on the phone with Putin, backlash from Zelensky, major attack on energy infrastructure today, big USA policy reversal on long-large missiles and Macron just now «Putin doesn’t want peace and is not ready to negotiate it»

DTEK, one of Ukraine’s largest energy companies, says Russia’s latest attack marks the 10th hit on Ukrainian energy infrastructure this year. Its own facilities hit over 190 times since the war started. Power supply to civilians depend on it.

⚡️ Zelenskyy: The US cannot force us to "sit and listen" at the negotiating table. We are an independent country. 📹: Suspilne / Youtube

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