In Round 12 so far Win by 114 points with +29 scoring shots Win by 52 points with +7 scoring shots Win by 4 points with +4 scoring shots Win by 25 points with level scoring shots Win by 4 points with -1 scoring shots

And the FMI AFLM Mondrians

FMI AFLM with two to play

FMI AFLM after Game 2 (Note that, after some collaborative work with Claude, we found that using an SD of about 30, not 35, leads to better calibrated probability forecasts)

"I tell you - it's scorigamis as far as the eye can see ..."

After Game 1 of FMI AFLM

Didn't Sting and Genesis write songs about this nearly 40 years ago?

Realise it's not sinking of the Titanic level news, but I've just created my first ever Scheduled Task in Windows: harvesting forecast and actual rain data at 1am every day

That's just freakish

New South Welshman here, but this will be a pretty hollow victory if we win this

"Decisions are being made on super slow replays. It paints a completely different picture ..." Indeeed. It makes it clear what actually happened

A first look at how reliable are X-day ahead forecasts of rainfall Unfortunately, apparently the only historical source of forecasts is for 2017-18

Happy Origin Day! Presenting: Origin halves pairings since 2006, visualised as chord (spider) diagrams. There is no distinction between halfback and five-eighth, just unique pairings. Strange is the 27th NSW player used in the halves since 2006 Walker is the 12th QLD player in the same period.

A reminder before tonight's Origin game - a team that receives a set restart is 2.4x more likely to score a try than they would during a set without a set restart. A second set restart during that phase bumps it up 3.2x

I’ve completed my nephew’s quilt in honour of his 13th birthday and got some help photographing it. 🧶 It’s a tradition in my mother’s family that your grandmother makes you a quilt for your 13th birthday but my grandmother died when I was 3, so my great-aunt made me one and I felt touched by that. 🧵

So, finally I know what a Hird mentality is

Essendon open at +12.5 and are now +8.5. Change of coach or just mispriced??

It's going to be a very slippery slope if we start fine-tooth-combing every decision in games won by less than a goal in the AFL Might as well toss a coin for them ...

Latest from MoS on the Brownlow

Latest MoS Sims are up www.matterofstats.com/mafl-simulations/2026-simulating-the-final-ladder-after-round-11

The dance continues ...

MoS Team Dashboard after R11 is up www.matterofstats.com/mafl-team-dashboards/2024/3/17/matterofstats-2026-team-dashboard-for-round-11

Currently in the men's AFL, only two teams have a winning streak longer than two games, and only two teams have a losing streak longer than two games

MoS R11 Results www.matterofstats.com/mafl-wagers-and-tips/round-11-the-streak-continues

Final forecast for the NRL

Lucky or unlucky in FMI AFLM this week?

Leaked image from the GWS changeroom at half time

The full V/AFL history for games led by exactly 6 points at half-time

The vast majority of players in the 300+ club have enjoyed better than 50% win rates

** NEW COUNTRY ALERT ** MoS Welcomes Its First Ever Visitor from Djibouti! Just 29 "countries" now missing

After 97 games in the 2026 men's AFL competition, teams leading by 12 points or more at the end of: Q1: 33-1-12 (73%) Q2: 51-0-9 (85%) Q3: 67-0-6 (92%)

FMI AFLM with one to play

So far in AFL R11 Scoring Shot Differences (Winner - Loser): +4/+3/+5/+1 Winning Margins: 9/18/30/6

After Game 2 of FMI AFLM

FMI AFLM after Game 1

Final NRL forecast for tonight

FMI AFLM before Game 1

Omg the auto captions for my lecture #medievalsky

Final NRL forecast for tonight's game

Something I've wanted to for a while - visualise team interchange patterns, especially in light of Brisbane being the first team to use 30 players. Chart shows for each minute the % of games a player was on field for that minute. Red = high%, yellow = low %.

When assembling your dog, please make sure that you follow the instructions carefully.

Playing with an NRL model, and here's what's it's predicting for the upcoming round based on the Tuesday teams

We just launched #GuesstheReplication (GutheR). It is a challenging game where you predict replicability based on the abstract and title of an original study. Play it now and beat my high score at lukasroeseler.github.io/GuessTheRepl... or use our free slides for teaching zenodo.org/records/1985...

New work-in-progress #ggplot2 extension package for chord diagrams hopefully coming soon! #RStats #DataViz

The Australian National Audit Office has released its report on the handling of FOI requests by several Departments, including Prime Minister and Cabinet. It's found two-in-three decisions were set aside by the Information Commissioner on appeal. Nearly six in ten applications returned nothing.

Some news: @capitalcitycody.bsky.social and @jonathanhorn.bsky.social and I have started a podcast. It's called 110 Percenters. On our debut, we talk about Scott Pendlebury, and Steven King's remarkable start at Melbourne. Please tell us how we did. www.onepercenters.net.au/p/introducin...

I was a bit off on the timing in my February 2025 predictions of what RFK Jr. would do if confirmed as HHS Secretary. He’s already accomplished all of these things.

Sometimes, it's the little things.

Latest Brownlow thoughts from MoS