The EU approaches serious transformation on a variety of key ares. At the heart of this process lies Enlargement. SIEPS has published the anthology Fit for 35 with contributions from 8 prominent experts. A must-read if your curious about the future of Europe. sieps.se/en/publicati...

No surprise, but an important inter-institutional struggle on EU defence policy-making #SAFE www.euractiv.com/section/defe...

Russia’s war against Ukraine has transformed the security situation in Europe. One consequence is that EU enlargement is once again a top priority. In a new SIEPS publication, leading experts discuss what it takes to achieve peace, security and stability in Europe by enlarging the EU.

In the 2nd #FitFor35 volume, edited by @gvonsydow.bsky.social, @patricia-wadensjo.bsky.social and me, eight leading experts share their views on EU enlargement and reform: @erik-jones.bsky.social, Enlargement and Institutional Reform: How to make a credible security commitment 1/4

Instructive overview of three rounds of Spitzenkandidaten by @vkreilinger.bsky.social My view is that the 2024 experience was at most a 'glass half-full': VDL played ball but only half-heartedly and did not face serious competition /1 ...

It's time to look back 11 years, 6 years and 1 year #EP2014 #EP2019 #EP2024! And to think about the future of the Spitzenkandidaten procedure. My latest European Policy Analysis for @sieps.bsky.social: sieps.se/en/publicati...

New publication by SIEPS senior researcher Valentin Kreilinger @vkreilinger.bsky.social: The ‘Spitzenkandidaten saga’ 2014, 2019, 2024: Three races to become Commission President Read the analysis and download it on SIEPS site.

Merz & Macron (BILD, 8 May 2025, p. 2). And my take on Germany and the EU with Chancellor Merz: sieps.se/en/publicati...

Perfect Friday read by @vkreilinger.bsky.social to catch up the coming challenges for Germany and EU

Friedrich Merz’s high ambitions on spending and speed have already clashed with harsh realities. In a new Perspective, Political Scientist @vkreilinger.bsky.social (SIEPS) sheds light on the difficult tasks facing the soon-to-be German Chancellor.

My take @sieps.bsky.social on Germany and the EU with #Merz: Ambition meets Reality sieps.se/en/publicati...

Joint proposal by CDU/CSU and SPD: All defence spending above 1% of GDP exempt from the debt brake plus a new €500bn special fund for infrastructure! www.spiegel.de/politik/deut...

Major @sieps.bsky.social publication out today! 10 essays on ’Key Concepts for the Future of the EU’: #Leadership, #Geopolitics, #Competitiveness, #Security, #Resilience, #Demography, #Inclusion, #Democracy, #Values, #Unity. Edited by @patricia-wadensjo.bsky.social & me. Thread & download here! 👇

BILD: top jobs with Chancellor #Merz CDU: Thorsten Frei: Chair of CDU/CSU group or Home Affairs or Minister in the Chancellery Carsten Linnemann: Chair of CDU/CSU group or Economic Affairs and Labour Julia Klöckner: Speaker/President of the Bundestag Silvia Breher: Family Katrin Prien: Education

BILD: top jobs with Chancellor #Merz CDU: Thorsten Frei: Chair of CDU/CSU group or Home Affairs or Minister in the Chancellery Carsten Linnemann: Chair of CDU/CSU group or Economic Affairs and Labour Julia Klöckner: Speaker/President of the Bundestag Silvia Breher: Family Katrin Prien: Education

Yes, the debt brake must be reformed. But #Merz announces less than 24 hours after the polling stations closed that he will speak with SPD and Greens to reform it in the *old* parliament. 12 of his MPs didn't follow #Merz for his motion on 31 January, this number could be higher for the debt brake!

Could Merz increase defence spending in the regular budget to € 100 bn or more annually and get the Left Party to agree to a new special fund (€ 500 bn? 750 bn?) for infrastructure? #Schuldenbremse

Nice charts showing the progressive decline of the social democrat/christian democrat duopoly that dominated post-war German politics until the 2010s

Newspaper front pages, 24 Feb 2025 BILD: Merz does it BZ: Today is 1st Merz FAZ: Merz wants to form government by Easter Handelsblatt: Election winner Merz NZZ: CDU/CSU wins, SPD plummets SZ: "The world out there isn't waiting for us" (...) 1/2

Great chart for seeing that the key change in 🇩🇪 politics is the fragmentation of the traditional SPD & CDU coalitions of voters into multiple parties

🗳️ Germany: Left, centre, and right at the federal elections since 1949, updated with the official 2025 preliminary results

🗳️ On the preliminary German election result: The voters have narrowed down the coalition options to just one, to the coalition previously known as the "Grand coalition", CDU/CSU and SPD Official chart with separate values for CDU and CSU, without BSW (4.97%) which is included in "Other parties" 👇

Das sind nicht die richtigen Antwortalternativen, liebe ARD. Richtige Antworten wären gewesen: Putin, al-Assad, die Taliban. Kriege, Konflikte und Menschenrechtsverletzungen.

Still not clear how many parties will be in the next Bundestag and which coalition options will have a majority, so let’s look at the German political landscape since 1949👇

Hi, ARD and ZDF! You always show two options: - FDP in, BSW in - FDP out, BSW out But there are two more options: - FDP in, BSW out - FDP out, BSW in

Good to see the German election covered by the biggest Romanian news site with a series of quotes by me: hotnews.ro/urgenta-este...

Friedrich Merz has stated his intention to have a government by Easter, which is 56 days from now. Previous Grand coalitions by Angela Merkel in 2005 and 2013 took 65 and 86 days to be formed:

Most important in my view is whether a stable two party coalition will be possible without the AfD. As @vkreilinger.bsky.social showed in this excellent thread, much depends on whether and which of the small parties enter. Looking good for die Linke, both BSW and FDP are expected to be close.

The FT‘s Europe Express by Tony Barber has a great guide to Germany’s watershed election (on.ft.com/3Qzbom0) and even mentions a recent @sieps.bsky.social publication 😊 (sieps.se/globalassets...)

Exciting YouGov data. SPD loses voters to CDU/CSU, Greens and AfD. Not surprising, Left Party wins voters that voted SPD and Greens in 2021 (I assume some of them might have intended to vote BSW in-between). AfD wins voters from CDU/CSU and SPD. Did I miss something interesting? #btw25

28% would weaken #Merz internally and in coalition negotiations👇 The worst CDU/CSU results: ▪️2021: 24.1% (Laschet) ▪️1949: 31.5% (Adenauer) ▪️2017: 32.9% (Merkel) At the same time, CSU will hugely outperform CDU, with 42% in polls for the Federal election in Bavaria: www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/lae...

‼️ The recording of our @sieps.bsky.social webinar on the upcoming German election with @almutm.bsky.social and @dittebrasso.bsky.social, moderated by @gvonsydow.bsky.social, is now available: sieps.se/en/web_19feb

With many other posting similar threads now, maybe good to quote what I posted on Monday morning 👇

Today's Dagens Industri with an op-ed on the German election by @gvonsydow.bsky.social and me: "The EU will need to take urgent decisions that give Europe the capacity to defend the continent, make the EU economy internationally competitive and allow the full potential of the single market...

Skriver tillsammans med @vkreilinger.bsky.social på DI debatt om förutsättningarna inför det viktiga tyska valet på söndag. www.di.se/debatt/europ...

It was a pleasure to take part in today's SIEPS webinar; Germany’s election – what does it mean for the EU? 🧵with main points 👇✋ Thank you for an excellent discussion Valentin Kreilinger, Almut Möller and Göran von Sydow @thinktankeuropa.bsky.social @sieps.bsky.social @epc-official.bsky.social

Looking forward to our webinar “Germany’s election – what does it mean for the EU?” from 11:30 to 12:45. More info & registration: www.sieps.se/en/seminars/...

Very happy to have written this post on the German election for the LSE EUROPP Blog of my Alma mater 🎓

German elections are coming up ‼️ I’ll be speaking about what it all means for 🇪🇺 at the @sieps.bsky.social webinar tomorrow Join by registering below 👇 @thinktankeuropa.bsky.social #eudk

Join our webinar “Germany’s election – what does it mean for the EU?” with @almutm.bsky.social, @dittebrasso.bsky.social, @gvonsydow.bsky.social, and me tomorrow from 11:30 to 12:45. Registration: sieps.se/en/seminars/... cc @epc-official.bsky.social @thinktankeuropa.bsky.social @sieps.bsky.social

16 🇩🇪 Länder governed by motley coalitions and an EPP-dominated #EUCO (even more with Merz) From me on 🇩🇪&🇪🇺: 1⃣ SIEPS report "Germany votes – will its EU policy change?" sieps.se/en/publicati... 2⃣ LSE EUROPP blogpost blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2... 3⃣ SIEPS webinar tomorrow sieps.se/en/seminars/...

This is an excellent post! The implications are troubling however.

My latest take on the 🇩🇪 German election 🗳️ @lseeuroppblog.bsky.social is a short summary of my new SIEPS report "Germany votes – will its EU policy change?", which you can find here: www.sieps.se/globalassets...

Really good thread on how which parties pass the 5% threshold affects the options to form the next coalition government in Germany. In most outcomes, CDU/CSU has a clear choice (in some form) between SPD & Greens as main coalition partner. - which will majorly affect foreign & security policy

🇩🇪🇰🇪🇯🇲 Prerequisite for understanding German politics: good knowledge of African and Caribbean flags.

This is fascinating. Nicely done @vkreilinger.bsky.social

So much (too much?) at stake ahead of the German elections. Join us on 19 February @sieps.bsky.social for a discussion on the implications of new political majorities in Germany. Featuring @almutm.bsky.social, @gvonsydow.bsky.social, @lykkefriis.bsky.social and @vkreilinger.bsky.social

Check out this excellent thread. And don't miss the webinar on Wednesday. Registration here: sieps.se/en/seminars/...

Great thread showing the influence on the viable coalitions by which of the small parties enter the Bundestag. For me one of the prime questions to watch on Sunday, as the capactiy to act of the next German government will differ wildly on whether a 2party coalition will be possible.

Excellent thread! The coalition options depending on which parties get over the 5% hurdle to enter the Bundestag