Thinking about the parts of the country which may be impacted by the introduction of automatic voter registration, compared with the current electoral rules remaining the same. Blue are LAs which would be entitled to more MPs using 16+ and AVR, red those who would lose.

I think this has been mostly missed, any 16-17 year olds being included in opinion polls now would have been old enough to vote in 2029 anyway.

🧵This report demonstrates the real diversity of opinion on freedom of speech and political correctness. Compared to the public, at least one segment occupies each combination of restrictionist/absolutist views on freedom of speech and political correctness. public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...

In 2020 @moreincommonuk.bsky.social launched the British 7 Segments. After a pandemic, major global conflicts, political upheaval, cost of living crisis, changes in work/social/information habits it’s time to update them for 2025. Here’s an intro to our new tribes of Britain (Quiz link next)

Consider this - no peer of the House of Lords currently sits as a Reform UK peer. Not an issue while they sit in opposition with a handful of MPs, but (assuming no changes to the House of Lords) a very real complication for politics in the event that Reform enter government after the next election.

Also considering the implications automatic registration may have on student registration - they can currently register at both their home and uni address. With automatic registration for all people living in an area, this will balloon the effect that student registration rules have on boundaries.

Lots to digest in this, but notable that trust in scientists is maintained across many of the groups - indeed is higher than trust in neighbours for every group. It is a reminder that the UK is not the US and we need to be careful of importing analytical models of ‘culture wars’ based on the US

Fantastic night at the launch of our new @moreincommonuk.bsky.social Shattered Britain report and our new British Seven Segments. Thanks to Kemi, Ed and Richard for their brilliant speeches and reflections on the findings and everyone who came along!

The solutions to the crisis of trust in politics arising from this fact are clear. Those seeking radical change (Reform, and the left) must reassure those with something to lose that they’ll be protected. Those seeking to preserve the status quo must start delivering for those who are struggling.

Tellingly, among those who have borrowed from pay-by-instalment lenders (such as Klarna), people in their overdraft, and those who owe money to the tax man, are 10-8% more likely than the public as a whole to say that institutions should burn, among the most likely of any group of the Britons.

"Institutional arson-ism" forms the basis of one of the biggest emerging fault lines in British politics, and more importantly it correlates with a lot of other political behaviour... 🧵

And here are seat estimates using the new Senedd Electoral System. Seat tallies are: ➡️REF UK (31) 🌼PLAID (28) 🌹LAB (28) 🌳CON (7) 🔶LIB DEM (2) 49 needed for a majority. Estimates based on voting intention. Fieldwork: 18/6 - 3/7 N=883 (16+)

I think what this really reveals is that, though Trump's appeal to rural and small town voters is a really important part of Trump-era politics, the kind of voter that Trump speaks to, and the rejection of established politics that he represents, goes a lot further than just these communities.

Great read from the NYT, which helps to grasp the scale of the electoral realignment that the US has undergone over the last 10 years ... BUT I have an (unusual) problem with maps like these - they are too robust. 🧵 www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

One point of concern from last week's LE results for Lab and the Cons should be Reform's support distribution. Widely distributed support has historically been a disadvantage, explaining why they win comparatively few seats per vote (see LDs and Grns in 2024 GE) ...

You can read our full local election briefing here: www.moreincommon.org.uk

Our @moreincommonuk.bsky.social polling for @channel4news.bsky.social on those who say they will vote in this week’s local elections finds Reform and the Conservatives likely to receive the most votes. ➡️ REF UK 26% 🌳 CON 25% 🌹 LAB 18% 🔶 LIB DEM 17% 🌍 GREEN 8% ⬜️ IND 6%