At Elvaston Castle today.

Election law: the tidy-up that might, finally, begin

Good of him to find the time, away from the golf.

Don’t follow this. Presumably markets don’t believe Trump’s latest statements, but read between the lines that he’s desperate to get out. But what’s the likelihood he can get out without leaving an almighty global economic mess? I sold a chunk a few days ago. Did I miss something?

Another excellent post on extremism, this time on an issue for the left & the right. bsky.app/profile/samf...

Civil servants are so faceless they don’t even know who they are themselves.

Nick Robinson has just repeated exactly the same error about Graham Linehan’s arrest this morning.

Now confirmed here. news.sky.com/story/politi... bsky.app/profile/publ...

Yep, rule change is here: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69a9a1... (p17) A judicial review (including rationality) is apparently underway: www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026... (And these changes are the target of a quite high profile "disapproving" EDM: edm.parliament.uk/early-day-mo...)

It hasn't actually come into effect, because the legislation hasn't been passed yet, though of course very likely will be. Could its retroactive effect be the ground of an ECnHR challenge by Reform (reportedly still accepting such donations)? www.gov.uk/government/n...

Could the UK help take the lead on this, along with eg Mark Carney, to build a coalition of the willing amid Trump’s smoking ruins, a bit like Brown's response to the GFC? The Iran debacle is as vivid as it gets on the disadvantages of the opposite approach. bsky.app/profile/samf...

"It takes money to kill bad guys." Is there a point at which Trump needs such Congress approval to keep funding the war, if so when, & how likely is it that there'd be enough Republicans, with an eye on the midterms & rising prices, to force a halt? www.reuters.com/world/us/hug...

The Electoral Commission doesn’t have a remit to regulate broadcasters. So what could it do? Is it suggested that GB News is a ‘third party campaigner’ (or donor?) under the legislation the EC does operate under, or that its remit should be extended to cover broadcasters? bsky.app/profile/arus...

A couple of quibbles with this BBC report on the prospect of a vote on changes to the Immigration Rules. 1. The changes DO require legislation. 2. A vote isn't purely symbolic. It's not much, but it's more than that. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... (detail unpacked in mini-thread...)

Encouraging. It chimes with what I heard from a US constitutional lawyer recently. Still have a concern that there’d be stuff done outside the law, which is hard to predict. But even there evidence suggests Trump backs off from nuclear options (eg ignoring SCOTUS). bsky.app/profile/samf...

Politicians don't seem to be able to succeed unless they're dishonest about this sort of thing, but have different ways of going about it. And it a prompted a thought on the different types of political dishonesty, depending on character. I've had a go... giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

The Conservative Party position on Muslim prayer is another reason to be wary about advocates of leaving the ECnHR claiming they’ve got no problem with the rights, they just don’t like the foreign interference.

“Grandmother in ‘melee’ with off-duty police at bottomless brunch.” www.thetimes.com/article/0af6...

Political economics query: since insulation & solar panels not only pay for themselves but end up making money (& panels also generate excess energy), & that in 4 years we've had 2 wars requiring state bailouts, is there a case for Govts to pay for installation, even disregarding climate impact?

Another consequence of ignoring international law: making it more difficult to cut deals, with friends & foes alike, & fomenting fanaticism, so limiting your options of extricating yourself from a mess like this. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

With a summary from Freedman Jr.

This is being pushed by Danny Kruger, who on the Westminster Hour last week said, in respect of the Iran war, the PM “seems unable to make a decision without consulting his lawyers”. So perhaps a Reform Government would be getting rid of lawyers too. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

This sort of thing is prevalent among Iran hawks: the idea that international law (or “international law”, to make it look bogus) is a straitjacket, or an excuse, that impedes morally just action. www.thetimes.com/article/154e...

Have to admit I wouldn’t have predicted that, a year after this, some of the same people would go through a reverse ferret *again*. bsky.app/profile/publ...

Churchill slogged his guts out to get his face on the currency, & even then the bastards didn't give it to him till he was dead, & now they're just going to slap on some random otter who - for all we know - has never done an honest day's graft in his life.

This is good. Includes this, setting out a distinction between wars of necessity & choice, which - looking at the examples - pretty much accords with the distinction between legal & illegal military action. bsky.app/profile/a-re...

The Government has its own (respected & orthodox) textbook on the law of war, pictured, which is used regardless of which party is power.

FWIW here's what I'm clinging to: 1. Trump's reality is a reality TV show, a series of episodes, & quickly gets bored with each one. He'll want the credits to roll on this pretty soon. 2. Despite the 2 term limit & posse of yes-men, he's still sees polls & markets, & craves adulation & a legacy.

Intriguing to hear Lord Wolfson defending the apparently indefensible here. How far should a lawyer entertain arguments that are on the cusp of absurd? podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/d...

From a Labour MP & former pollster, dismantling Blue Labour myths about the ‘hero voters’. bsky.app/profile/chri...

This is excellent, and (one of my own bugbears over the last week) absolutely spot-on on the issue of "family voting". bsky.app/profile/joxl...

"Now Clive of India has become Deano of Dubai, driving a Rolls-Royce while flogging a crypto scheme on TikTok." bsky.app/profile/dunc...

And another one. bsky.app/profile/publ...

Re Nick Timothy - there is still a warmth felt for Grange Hill in certain age groups. And this means with Timothy's popularity only one thing - Bring Francois into the shadow cabinet. (Below Timothy and Francois pictured after the 2024 election result)

Thinking of @dmk1793.bsky.social's article when reading this thread. An example of extreme anti-deliverism: here actually being willing to make things substantially worse for the sake of the optics. samf.substack.com/p/is-deliver...

This is really good. bsky.app/profile/rola...

It’s excellent news - something a few of us have been banging on about for a while. It’s also a rare example of the double u-turn (o-turn?). The Govt announced they were getting rid of the S&P in July 2024, reversed course in 2025, & now we’re back where we were again. bsky.app/profile/josi...

Excellent news with very welcome u-turn by government in House of Commons this evening, pledging to restore the Electoral Commission's independence. Democracy is strengthened by having an independent regulator. (Labour had previously omitted from its legislative plans acting on this.)

As far as the Conservative Party's position on the legality of the Iran war is concerned, no need to read beyond these 3 words. bsky.app/profile/josh...

A subtle but I think important difference between a summary of ‘legal advice’ (as this was framed by the Govt yesterday) & a ‘legal position’, as has now emerged. bsky.app/profile/bric...

Economics of car ownership are weird. My children - one of whom recently refused a lift from a party out of embarrassment - were cock-a-hoop when they found a website that valued our car at £75, assuming this would shame me into buying a new one. On the contrary, it’s helped persuade me to keep it.

A good example of how legal imprecision, & sloppy reporting in the media, can help sow false narratives. Here the suggestion is that families are committing offences by turning up to polling stations together, & ‘conferring’ or ‘colluding’. But there are no such offences. bsky.app/profile/publ...

First assessment of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran. They want regime change but leaving it to the Iranian people to change the regime. Regime fighting back by causing disruption in region, which may backfire. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/the-us-and...

Isabel Oakeshott & co waving away smoke as they continue to report on the dire state of London & its failure to embrace Trumpism. bsky.app/profile/fare...

This quote may misstate the position somewhat. There's no offence of "family voting". Conferring within a family isn't an offence, nor is simply accompanying another in a polling booth. The Ballot Secrecy Act offence requires intent to influence (likely difficult to prove). bsky.app/profile/timb...

New Substack post: 'The Good Old Days'. open.substack.com/pub/rolandmc...