Makerfield Makebelieve - modern politics in microcosm. bsky.app/profile/dunc...

The investigation into the local elections in Tameside, Manchester: arrests for ‘conspiracy to defraud’. A common law offence. It requires dishonesty but not necessarily deprivation of property. www.gmp.police.uk/news/greater...

Reform's position does seem to have hardened on this, to explicit Trumpian denialism. bsky.app/profile/aksh...

The sorting hat is out & the verdict is in. bsky.app/profile/step...

Who in Government is making these extraordinary decisions?

The ultimate looking glass moment. bsky.app/profile/chri...

So we know Makerfield was 65% leave in 2016 - but what about now? Presumably lower, as per the rest of the UK, but how much lower? And how many of those are potential Labour voters, against those more pro-EU or neutral?

The point I was trying to make below, made properly by @nixonsimon.bsky.social here: nixons.substack.com/p/very-briti... bsky.app/profile/publ...

Can anyone explain this response from Camp Burnham? Doesn’t it further draw attention to a weakness in the campaign, but also actually look they’d rather not talk about it, while also failing to clearly differentiate his position? www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cr...

Is this genuine or pretended misunderstanding? It’s the fact that such investigations aren’t carried out by government officials, but by officers of Parliament, that means parliamentary privilege applies. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

About that £5million. Why those excuses don't stack up etc. Worth a read. drhow.substack.com/p/farages-5-...

Although the answer doesn't include either of my 2 top ideas - don't get elected on fraudulent promises, & don't allow party members to elect party leaders - this is, as expected, full of good ideas. bsky.app/profile/samf...

Rupert Lowe (unsurprisingly) loses his court challenge to a decision of the Commons Indep Complaints and Grievance Scheme. Note that Farage would likely fail any court challenge to a decision by the Parl Comr/ Standards Cmtee for the same reason. caselaw.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ewhc/admin/2...

This isn't how it works: you aren't exempt from reporting "unconditional" donations. But also begs the questions: 1) How many other unconditional donations were there? 2) Other donations to Farage/Reform *have* been reported (including many £m from Harborne) - so *what were the conditions*?

The "crook" quote is notable here, not just because of the shades of Nixon, but also because of the distinction between the 2 investigations that are going on. If the Parliamentary Commissioner finds against him, that's not a criminal matter. If the Electoral Commission finds against him, it is.

Interesting to see 3 (good) articles almost simultaneously making the same point about the UK not being ungovernable. But they all omit one point...

If you’re interested in what’s likely to happen here, & regarding the similar but different issue the Electoral Commission is looking at, an explainer below. publicsectorlawyer179.substack.com/p/the-farage... bsky.app/profile/iand...

This gives the impression that it can be a matter for Parliament, rather than the courts, to decide how the European Convention on Human Rights should be applied. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a0466...

I tend to think the public overdoes its rubbishing of politicians. But party leaders in the last few weeks: - One failed to disclose a £5m donation. - One playing down the failure to pay council tax for 3 years. - One sacked one of the best public servants of his generation for doing his job. ...

Presumably this is correct. And presumably also this disregard for rules & norms helps explain why the founder of the SAS, David Stirling, subsequently became a mercenary & was behind the planned military coup here in the mid-1970s.

How might officials deal with a future populist government? Exploration here of the grey area of the civil service’s constitutional status. As @ukcivilservant.bsky.social pointed out, the current CS’s Objective 6 suggests a different role to that set out by a former one. bsky.app/profile/bymy...

Martin Wolf argues the only hope of preventing a full-on Trumpian Reform Government is via elections & electoral reform. But that's not realistically going to happen before the next GE. Perhaps after a messy hung Parliament. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Particularly interesting on the implications for the voting system, & how this may be skewing things, perhaps not just campaigning but governing itself. bsky.app/profile/samf...

Mandelson in 2008, Cameron in 2023, & now Brown - a sense of fin de regime about these appointments.

‘Crasis’? bsky.app/profile/matt...

They're doubling down on this today ("should not be in the public domain"). If you're interested in what may happen on this, have a look at the Substack post below (& I welcome any views if there's anything that doesn't look right). bsky.app/profile/publ... www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

I've had a look here at the investigations into the £5m donation, which includes a best guess at what's going to happen. (It's free. I may put more longer thoughts on here. Let me know if that's of interest. Or if you're substacked-out.) publicsectorlawyer179.substack.com/p/the-farage...

This issue continues to cause confusion. Hence the suggestion in the thread below. bsky.app/profile/publ... www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...

And on unmanageable volume, here is one of my favourite pictures, Williston with his notes for his US contract treatise. Done in the same way now, he'd have to have 4-5x as much.

bsky.app/profile/pete... The last review having been done in 2023.

This case also has ramifications for the clauses to be inserted into the Representation of the People Bill to give effect to Rycroft's recommendations on overseas and crypto donations Important contextual differences - but it's a good indication that Parliament needs to make its intention clear...

NB fans of statutory interpretation may be interested in this Supreme Court decision, which decided that the wording below “an amount equal to the value of the donation” in another part of the Act meant an amount *less than or* equal to. supremecourt.uk/uploads/uksc... bsky.app/profile/publ...

New post: "Back to the Future" The rise of predictions markets means billions in bets on world events from wars to weather. It risks not only insider trading scandals but creating distorting feedback loops as people try to change the future. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/b...

Re the £5m gift to Nigel Farage. There’s a regulatory overlap between the statutory controls, overseen by the Electoral Commission, & the parliamentary rules, overseen by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards. The latter provisions set out here. publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5803/cm...

@frasernelson.bsky.social is wrong on this point. There are statutory controls on such donations. Including reporting requirements. Failure to report without reasonable excuse is a criminal offence. See the thread below. But… bsky.app/profile/publ... www.thetimes.com/article/4b07...

Russia’s economy is in a bad way, its army is struggling to advance, and Ukraine’s drone are regularly attacking targets inside Russia. Is Putin running out of options? My latest post looks at his predicament (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/i...?

On the face of it, quite an ambitious argument. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Someone should slip in when Trump isn't looking & recreate this look the next time Zelensky visits.

Excellent. The focus in recent years on the ‘Red Wall’ type of median voter might’ve obscured another electorally important group, which is quite different. bsky.app/profile/samf...

Includes this: "I think it is highly relevant that when the PM’s office was told of the ‘failed’ outcome of the DV, as part of the process of responding to the Humble Address, this information was almost immediately leaked, clearly as part of some ‘spin’ management."

The 2 bases for the contempt motion should fail. (NB why has Ed Davey endorsed this?) There are actually 2 matters that the PM has (at least arguably) misled Parliament about, which aren't covered. 1/ commonsbusiness.parliament.uk/Document/104...

There does seem some inconsistency in evidence from the civil servants here. Maybe because such appointments are unusual, so experience differs (or could be the way questions are framed). In any event, what's "normal" or not isn't necessarily what's improper or not.

A great example of mandarinese. “Unusual but not irregular.” “Less than totally candid.” bsky.app/profile/andr...

Quite a good exercise, I think - can you think of 5? And if you can't, are you challenging yourself enough? (I can immediately think of 2, or 1.5 - lifestyle taxes & the EU referendum.) bsky.app/profile/igma...

Is the full extent of the current crisis appreciated? Not just the coming economic hit but also the impact of Trump’s erratic behaviour. All allies are adjust to US incompetence. Latest post argues this makes increased defence spending more urgent. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?

Doesn’t this bit present a bit of problem? If eg you need to share anger about immigration rising, when it’s falling, or the rich being taxed less, when they’re being taxed more, you’ve got to be ignorant or self-deluded or dishonest. Are those the politicians we want? bsky.app/profile/rent...

From “The endgame is approaching, but will Keir Starmer go quietly?” www.thetimes.com/article/ebbb...

The opposite view to that set out in the thread below, per @patrickmaguire.bsky.social. On what "matters more" than the fate of "wet-eyed mandarins" & the long term consequences for governance & national security. IMV part of the problem. bsky.app/profile/publ... www.thetimes.com/article/8d38...

Someone should sneak a story into one of these papers along the lines of "BIGGEST welfare bill revealed: £150 BILLION a year! MILLIONS perfectly fit for work given handouts by hard-working families! Many in million pound MANSIONS!"