A test of India’s K4 submarine-launched missile, and the presence of Chinese ships watching the test, highlights the growing tensions between China and India in the Indian Ocean.

Amid security threats on its borders, Egypt will try to accommodate Donald Trump on Gaza while deepening relations with Qatar and Turkey — and focus on reviving its struggling economy.

The invasion of Iraq ensured that North Korea would never give up its nuclear arsenal. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US undermining and abandoning its allies will convince South Korea and Japan that they need a nuclear backstop. Northeast Asia will become a tinderbox.

Anyone who knows anything about Polish history and Russia’s incredibly violent contribution to it knows that this is a stupid thing to write. It takes some temerity to tell the Poles to not worry about their neighbours intentions. Then again he’s been doing exactly the same thing with Israelis.

Despite the danger of a new war with Israel, and a deteriorating strategic environment following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah is still rejecting any compromise.

🇺🇦 | The Donetsk towns of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are key parts of Ukraine's ‘fortress belt’. Were they to fall to Russia, or to be ceded, Ukraine's security would be at risk. @samirpuri.bsky.social on why the Donbas region matters to Ukraine — and why Russia wants it⤵️

🇨🇳 | A jump in trade with non-US markets, including the EU and Global South countries, has helped Beijing shrug off the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs. Read James Kynge's (@chasiapacific.bsky.social) latest analysis for Chatham House⤵️

Fair to say that going from quotes like this, the US National Security Strategy comes far more from JD Vance’s worldview than Elbridge Colby’s ‘prioritise China’ outlook. It’s bad for Europe, bad for the transatlantic relationship and above all bad for America’s position in the world.

Amid rising tensions over Tigray and Ethiopia’s drive to access the Red Sea, de-escalation is urgently needed to prevent Ethiopia and Eritrea from going to war.

The US, Europe and Japan need to recognize that China poses a far greater challenge than the Soviet Union — and coordinate a response to the rise of an authoritarian superpower.

Although the promise of Rafale jets for Ukraine has dominated coverage, Dassault is behind on deliveries to India and Indonesia and no jets will come from the French Air Force.

The sheer scale of the reshuffle at the top of the People's Liberation Army once again underscores Xi Jinping’s unchallenged authority at the height of China’s political hierarchy.

My latest for @chathamhouse.org’s international affairs magazine. Using previously unseen Maxar satellite images we document Israel’s air campaign against the Houthis. The TLDR is that Israel won’t tolerate Iran building up the Houthis into a Hezbollah-like force.

Despite the ceasefire in Gaza, Israel will not tolerate Iran sending weapons to Yemen and turning the Houthis into the next Hezbollah. I and my co-author write for @theworldtoday.org documenting Israel's air campaign against the Houthis in the Red Sea with Maxar images📸 and what may come next.

China purges nine top commanders in People’s Liberation Army

In the coming days Egypt will become a crucial player in Gaza. Cairo will be vital in facilitating the flow of aid into the territory and Egyptian troops could potentially deploy as peacekeepers.

"What some powerful members of the Trump administration want is regime change, and they want it as cheaply as possible." Christopher Sabatini writes for the @nytimes.com on the Trump administration's mobilisation of the US military against Venezuela ⬇️

At this point any US military aid or support for Europe and Ukraine should be viewed as a bonus under this president. Trump doesn’t care about Europe and Europe should act and arm accordingly.

In the last six years, the Gulf Arab states have been attacked by both Israel and by Iran. In both instances, Washington did not protect them or respond militarily.

The consistency with which Donald Trump makes excuses for Vladimir Putin is truly beyond alarming at this point. The Russians have very likely concluded that their next act of aggression towards Europe will receive no meaningful US response…. and they would be right.

Enough is enough. After the drone incursion into Poland deterrence needs to be re-established with the Russians. The next time a flight of Russian jets enter NATO airspace, fire control radars should be locked onto them.

At an emergency summit in Doha, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi escalated his rhetoric on Israel - and may now seek to revive Cairo’s vision of an Arab military alliance.

You love to see it and a packed edition too as we head into the Autumn 🍂. Give @lycidas.bsky.social and the mighty @theworldtoday.org team a follow👇

A Russian naval base, the growing Iranian presence in Port Sudan and the risk posed by terrorist groups seeking a haven are all reasons why Western governments should give a higher priority to Sudan.

"Eight decades after the Second World War ended, China no longer views itself as a mere participant in history but as the architect of a new world order." A fascinating read by my @chathamhouse.org colleague Yu Jie on the key signals China is sending via the SCO summit and 'Victory Day' parade.

China is sending a clear message: it wants to reshape the world order. And it has the power to do it.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine marks a significant escalation but not a shift in Russia’s strategic outlook – one rooted in resisting EU and NATO influence in the Black Sea.

“Trump gave Putin more space to manipulate, mislead and buy time. Alaska has emboldened Putin, who is likely to prolong, not end, the war.” Orysia Lutsevych on the Alaska summit between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump for @chathamhouse.org⤵️

“There are dangers still to watch for. Trump is now once again looking to Zelenskyy to take steps towards peace. Having failed to make any impression on Putin, Trump is turning to the softer target.” @keirgiles.bsky.social offers his analysis on the Alaska summit⤵️

"Ukraine and Europe risk being once again frozen out of the conversation about their future. In the case of Europe, that’s a damning indictment." Read @keirgiles.bsky.social latest on the upcoming summit in Alaska between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, for @theipaper.com⤵️

A fascinating read by @chathamhouse.org’s Middle East team on the dynamics at play in Lebanon following the war in September-October last year and what it means for Israel, Hezbollah, the US and Lebanon. ⬇️

With Hezbollah badly mauled following its war with Israel and much of its leadership destroyed, the United States sees an opportunity to end a long-standing threat to Israel and Lebanon.

"Although Israel and the United States did considerable damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran may be able to produce the fissile material required for about ten nuclear weapons within half a year." Stark analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

A fascinating new report by @galipdalay.bsky.social and Natalie Sabanadze for @chathamhouse.org. It covers the ambitions of Russia in the Black Sea region, 🇷🇺🇹🇷 ties, the invasion of Ukraine and China's regional interests also. A brilliant read on one of the world's most contested maritime domains⤵️

Today’s China–EU summit in Beijing is meant to mark 50 years of diplomatic ties, but China and Europe remain deeply divided over trade and the war in Ukraine. Read Yu Jie's (@chasiapacific.bsky.social) latest for @chathamhouse.org ⤵️

An important read by my @chathamhouse.org colleagues on how the UK should approach the Indo-Pacific region.

Podcast🎙️| Will Trump deliver for Ukraine? Jaroslava Barbieri, John Lough and Samir Puri join the podcast to discuss whether Donald Trump is shifting his views on Ukraine and Russia. Apple: apple.co/4m80Qs9 Spotify: bit.ly/458Fepz

Find it shocking that the story about the Afghan files is being turned into a story about immigration on R4 by Rajan and Healy. This is about public scrutiny, government decision-making, doing right by those who've supported the British armed forces and British operations overseas. Not immigration.

"This will lead to a reimagination of Turkish citizenship, the idea of the Turkish nation and Turkey's geopolitical identity." @galipdalay.bsky.social (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the disarmament of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and what it means for 🇹🇷, via @aljazeera.com

The Entente Cordiale has never looked better and neither has the Mall. Truly stunning weather in London today for Emmanuel Macron’s state visit to the UK 🇫🇷🇬🇧.

“China’s economy has been growing at roughly the same pace as the world economy since 2020, meaning that China’s share of global GDP – the best measure of relative national power – is now flatlining. By this indicator, China is no longer a rising country.”

A really interesting podcast with @gideonrachman.bsky.social and @valinasr.bsky.social on the Iran-Israel war. The key takeaway: Israel has not fully destroyed Iran’s nuclear program. We don’t know enough (yet) about the damage at Natanz, Esfahan and Fordow.

"China already has the world's largest navy, and its battle force is expected to grow to 435 ships by 2030." In a pre-summit address Secretary General Mark Rutte spoke at @chathamhouse.org about 🇨🇳's rising naval power in the Indo-Pacific. Watch our event ➡️ bit.ly/3HO5sED

Higher education in the UK is in a truly parlous state. At a minimum the University of Nottingham (my old employer) is expecting around 400 redundancies. Former colleagues are worried or voting with their feet and leaving. The same concerns from colleagues at London based universities too.

Post-strike images of the Fordow fuel enrichment facility in Iran from Maxar dated 22 June. Large craters caused by the US strikes can be seen on the ridge above the underground complex. A layer of grey-blue ash covers the area around the site.

Brand new imagery from Maxar featuring high-res satellite images show damage to Iran’s heavy water reactor complex in Arak following Israeli strikes. Comparison of images dated 18 and 19 June confirm the Arak reactor has sustained heavy damage.

Oh boy.

"Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years. Five years." Speaking at @chathamhouse.org NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warns about the dangers facing Europe's security. Watch the event: bit.ly/3HO5sED

South Korea's new president Lee Jae-myung has made controversial foreign policy statements and could move Seoul closer to Beijing, at a time when North Korea poses a growing threat.