Tax cuts were expected to juice consumer spending in '26H1. Instead, the refund increase per filer from '25 to '26 has been offset by higher energy costs. With gas at $4.50 & tax season over, the net effect will soon be negative. Rather than an accelerant, the OBBBA acted as a short-term buffer.

"I will leave when I think it's appropriate to do so". Follow up: "By staying aren't you denying Trump the majority on the Board?" A: I'm staying on because of actions that have been taken; they've left me no choice. He is the GOAT, plain and simple.

The economic damage from the war with Iran is mounting. Just the surge in gasoline prices has cost Americans an estimated additional $21.3 billion since the start of the war over 6 weeks ago.

My op-ed in today’s @post-gazette.com. An estimated $5.5 billion of the $175 billion in IEEPA tariffs was paid by companies in Pennsylvania. That’s more than the state collected in corporate income taxes in the latest fiscal year. www.post-gazette.com/opinion/gues...

CPI and PPI translations into PCE suggest core prices in January rose around 0.43%, give or take. That would be the highest month-over-month reading since February (which was +0.448%) and annualizes to 5.3%. It corresponds to a 3.1% y/y rate, the highest since March 2024, up from 2.6% in April.

Phew… Now European firms can get back to planning $600B of investment in strategic sectors in the US by 2028.

My first piece as a contributing Opinion writer at @nytopinion.nytimes.com tries to explain the underlying economics--or lack thereof--of a focus on bilateral trade deficits, trade restrictions as a cause and tariffs as a solution. Let me know what you think of it. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/o...

For a more in-depth discussion on the latest U.S. employment report, the potential impact of DOGE cuts and the on-again, off-again tariffs that have developed in recent weeks tune in to our latest Inside Economics podcast. Listen here: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...

Wednesday's inflation report for January will show whether we're past the brunt of the turn-of-the-year price reset issue that has wrongfooted forecasters in the last few years Core CPI Median: 0.30% Range: 0.22% to 0.37% Headline CPI Median: 0.32% Range: 0.25% to 0.38%