“These new documents make it clear that Epstein’s activities as a financier, political kingmaker, and liaison for the global elite were part of a larger world of Russian influence that grew out of the corrupt oligarchism of the USSR’s collapse.”My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/ukraine-ag...

“The task before Eastern European states along Russia’s periphery now is not just to find a broader set of allies, but to rewrite the entire national security strategy they’ve been depending on since the 90s to maintain their survival.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/eastern-eu...

“The task before Eastern European states along Russia’s periphery now is not just to find a broader set of allies, but to rewrite the entire national security strategy they’ve been depending on since the 90s to maintain their survival.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/eastern-eu...

⚡️Zelensky 'counting on' more US air defense missiles, security guarantees following meeting with Trump at Davos. "We spoke with President Trump about additional anti-air missiles – the PAC-3s, against ballistics, which are what we need," Volodymyr Zelensky said. "I'm counting on a positive result."

'The plan includes updating the 1951 "Greenland Defense Agreement" between the U.S. and Denmark, which allowed the U.S. to build military bases in the island and establish "defense areas" if NATO believed it necessary.' www.axios.com/2026/01/21/g...

“As a new world order is born out of the tragedy of Ukraine, Lukashenko understands not only that Trump might end his ostracism from the West, but that this is his best shot to transform himself from Putin’s underling into his right-hand man.” My latest for @unherd.com: unherd.com/2026/01/luka...

Poland's new anti-drone system will be the first of its kind in Europe, and will be operational well before the EU drone wall. But Poland is setting the tone of NATO strategy against Russian gray zone warfare in more ways than one. My first analysis for @cepa.org: cepa.org/article/pola...

If NATO falls apart, or if Europe creates alternate structures to replace it, Ukraine and all of NATO’s east will have to fundamentally reorient their security calculus, leading to new hyper local defense partnerships, especially in the Baltic. My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trumps-gre...

“While it is telling that Kushner and Witkoff were present at the talks in Paris, Trump’s assertion that Russia will not re-invade Ukraine speaks to his continued refusal to accept that Putin still seeks the capitulation of Ukraine.” My latest roundup: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trump-acce...

“Putin has long seen Trump and his Ukraine peace process as a vehicle to formalise a new division of the world, and regards Trump’s move in Venezuela to be a decisive step in that direction.” My latest in @unherd.com on Russia’s long-term plans: unherd.com/2026/01/what...

My latest piece for Persuasion on the Berlin talks and the horrific choice Zelenskyy and Ukraine now face: www.persuasion.community/p/ukraines-i...

“Fundamentally the failure of this outreach effort shows that while Russia had led Trump to believe that Putin is interested in talking business, at the end of the day, for Russia, geopolitics is geopolitics” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/putin-reje...

“Fundamentally the failure of this outreach effort shows that while Russia had led Trump to believe that Putin is interested in talking business, at the end of the day, for Russia, geopolitics is geopolitics” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/putin-reje...

🇵🇱🇨🇿🇸🇮🇭🇷🇧🇬🇸🇰🇺🇦🇲🇩🇲🇪🇲🇰🇱🇹🇱🇻🇪🇪🇷🇸🇷🇴🇽🇰🇩🇪🇭🇺

“Having already scared Ukraine into agreeing to the new 19-point plan, the pro-Russian wing of Trump’s cadre of viziers, with Witkoff at its head, is putting all the pieces in place to entrap Zelensky whenever he makes it to the White House.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/ukraine-is...

“Having already scared Ukraine into agreeing to the new 19-point plan, the pro-Russian wing of Trump’s cadre of viziers, with Witkoff at its head, is putting all the pieces in place to entrap Zelensky whenever he makes it to the White House.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/ukraine-is...

“While some of Ukraine’s opponents have pointed to the scandal as proof that Ukraine is an unreliable and corrupt ally, the fact that the scheme was unearthed proves once again that Ukrainian democracy and its institutions are indeed healthy.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/russia-blo...

“This railway explosion offers a glimpse into a near-future status quo that is far more immediate and nearly as dangerous [as a full-scale war]: an anxious state between war and peace in which violence is pervasive without becoming existential.” My latest for @unherd.com: unherd.com/newsroom/pol...

“While it’s possible that Russia’s nationalistic war fervor may well collapse under the weight of its economic consequences, only by following through on his claim that Ukraine could still win the war would Trump put real pressure on Russia.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/russia-gai...

“While it’s possible that Russia’s nationalistic war fervor may well collapse under the weight of its economic consequences, only by following through on his claim that Ukraine could still win the war would Trump put real pressure on Russia.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/russia-gai...

My latest news roundup from yesterday analyzing the most important events from last week, along with under-covered stories like Latvia’s vote to withdraw from the Istanbul Convention on protecting women and Serbia’s promise to hold early elections: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/russia-mov...

My latest news roundup from yesterday analyzing the most important events from last week, along with under-covered stories like Latvia’s vote to withdraw from the Istanbul Convention on protecting women and Serbia’s promise to hold early elections: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/russia-mov...

Despite his new sanctions, Trump is sure to flip back to Putin’s side on Ukraine once he sees that strong-arming Kyiv will be his quickest path to getting what he truly wants — a new Russo-American partnership on trade, resources, and more. My latest in @unherd.com: unherd.com/2025/10/trum...

Despite his new sanctions, Trump is sure to flip back to Putin’s side on Ukraine once he sees that strong-arming Kyiv will be his quickest path to getting what he truly wants — a new Russo-American partnership on trade, resources, and more. My latest in @unherd.com: unherd.com/2025/10/trum...

“With the US and the EU stepping up their pressure not only in Europe, but globally, the oil and gas front has become the most important and likely most impactful theater in the entire war.” My latest on Trump’s sanctions and Ukraine’s drone war: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/ukraine-ha...

“With the US and the EU stepping up their pressure not only in Europe, but globally, the oil and gas front has become the most important and likely most impactful theater in the entire war.” My latest on Trump’s sanctions and Ukraine’s drone war: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/ukraine-ha...

“Trump will almost certainly halt this intelligence sharing to make room for the negotiations as he has in the past meaning that all the gains Ukraine has made on the energy front will go to waste — which of course is exactly what Putin wants.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trump-turn...

“Trump will almost certainly halt this intelligence sharing to make room for the negotiations as he has in the past meaning that all the gains Ukraine has made on the energy front will go to waste — which of course is exactly what Putin wants.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trump-turn...

“While these [Russian] troops luckily didn’t come into contact with any passenger traffic, if they had, Estonia might now be talking about the first case of one of its citizens being kidnapped by Russian forces — or worse.” My latest news analysis: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/moscow-thr...

I’m late to the party, but I’ve just finished Jacob Mikanowski’s Goodbye Eastern Europe, a book about the multicultural patchwork of experiences and identities that once defined Eastern Europe. A few sections that spoke my own vision of what this region was, is, and could be again 🧵:

A new Ukrainian missile was demonstrated. It appears to be a modified Neptune missile. mod.gov.ua/news/mi-zakl...

“Trump admin’s move to share intelligence with Kyiv on long-range strikes clearly signals that it is still willing to play a role in its military activities — and more importantly, that Ukraine’s strikes are working and are worth bolstering.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trump-shar...

“For the first time since he took office, Trump is handing the reigns of the West’s role in Ukraine back across the Atlantic and tying his own horse to Ukraine’s prospects in hopes of securing a much-needed win in the war.”My analysis of last week’s news: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trump-mull...

My latest on what Trump’s U-turn on Ukraine really means in practice for the country and its European allies, and why it offers unexpected opportunities for them on long-range weapons permissions, American help with Russian incursions into NATO, and more: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trumps-pro...

“Russia is establishing new rules of the game in NATO’s east, setting the stage for a new phase in its undeclared conflict with the alliance. Poland’s promise to shoot down Russian aircraft that violate its airspace is a logical next step” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/russia-vio...

For years now, a new opioid class has been replacing fentanyl: nitazenes. Last month, I traveled to the nitazene epidemic’s unlikely epicenter, Estonia, where I dug deep into a marginalized underworld rarely seen by outsiders. My latest for @unherd.com: unherd.com/2025/09/the-...

For years now, a new opioid class has been replacing fentanyl: nitazenes. Last month, I traveled to the nitazene epidemic’s unlikely epicenter, Estonia, where I dug deep into a marginalized underworld rarely seen by outsiders. My latest for @unherd.com: unherd.com/2025/09/the-...

“The Russian assault has exposed a strategic blind spot in a piece of Warsaw’s defence architecture that could yet prove its Achilles Heel. For Russia, probing this space may have been exactly the point.” My latest on Putin’s drone attack on Poland in @unherd.com: unherd.com/2025/09/how-...

Good analysis of Russia’s drone incursion into Poland. “Without an Article V declaration from NATO, Russia now understands that the alliance will tolerate provocations like this… meaning that Moscow’s field of movement has expanded. Expect more such incursions over the coming weeks and months.”

With Wednesday’s action against Poland, Putin is setting the stage not for a full-on invasion of the country, but an unstable status quo of much lower level violence between Russia and NATO. My piece on the implications of Russia’s dramatic drone attack: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/the-russia...

💥Poland’s foreign minister @radek-sikorski.bsky.social reminded Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán that he once again failed to name or condemn Russia — and that his government is still blocking €2 billion in EU funds meant to compensate Poland for the military aid it has provided to Ukraine.

I think Russia would be very unwise to poke at Poland specifically. Yes, of course NATO, but Poland itself is a player which has been aggressively supporting Ukraine and building up it's military. I'm reminded of this analysis by @michalkranz.bsky.social from several months ago.

Russians dropped a glide bomb on elderly people who were waiting in line for their pensions. More than 20 dead. Please. Don’t look away and don’t be silent. This is all I could ask for

Recent moves by Trump on security guarantees for Ukraine are big news, and suggest there are forces within his admin that have been pushing him to adopt a harsher tone on Russia — and after the failures of August, they may finally be winning. My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/the-us-and...

“On the one hand, Poles have become more exclusive — and perhaps less imaginative — in how they define their security interests, treating the Nato defence umbrella as a zero-sum game. On the other hand, much has changed since 2022.” My latest in @unherd.com: unherd.com/newsroom/are...

“Aside from fruitlessly trying to convene talks by getting Russia and Ukraine together and nudging them to “do something,” the Trump administration continues to have no real policy on Ukraine.” My latest Eastern Europe news roundup: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trump-appr...

“Aside from fruitlessly trying to convene talks by getting Russia and Ukraine together and nudging them to “do something,” the Trump administration continues to have no real policy on Ukraine.” My latest Eastern Europe news roundup: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trump-appr...

Despite his recent drift toward Ukraine, Trump has continued to offer only positive incentives for Russia to move closer toward acceptable peace terms without any coercive measures — and has simultaneously kept Ukraine on a very tight leash. My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trump-talk...

Despite his recent drift toward Ukraine, Trump has continued to offer only positive incentives for Russia to move closer toward acceptable peace terms without any coercive measures — and has simultaneously kept Ukraine on a very tight leash. My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trump-talk...

Poland blames Russia for drone crash