FH14 - A New Frontier 😊 www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ftov...

📺 Gameweek 12 - James' Wildcard @pras-fpl.bsky.social and @jonnyc.bsky.social are joined by @trout-post.com, CTO of Solio Analytics, to discuss some recent Solio features, planning with risk, and James's chip strategy and wildcard draft (he has all his chips left!) youtu.be/Ic-JVdnwQGg

Only today discovered saxophonist Getatchew Mekurya. Fuck yeah

With Ange Postecoglou set to take over at Forest, we went back to look at some DEFCON data from his Spurs spell His high line + pressing style generally created more DEFCON chances for opponents than for his own players 👇

I thought my FPL ID this year was my worst ever, until.... 🤯🤯🤯

GW1 🔒

For anyone who missed it, a few friends and I have spent all of our free time over the last 18 months building an FPL tool (@solioanalytics.com). Check it out!

I had the privilege of participating in the testing phase of the new Solio FPL tool! I particularly liked how you can run deep optimisations with your own assumptions baked in. It’s the kind of tool you’ve always wanted. Try it yourself! @solioanalytics.com #FPL #FPLCommunity #Solio

Welcome to Solio and the 2025/26 FPL season Here it is, our first ever video. Join @pras-fpl.bsky.social and @jonnyc.bsky.social as they talk briefly about Solio and mostly about the upcoming #FPL season. Hope you like it! youtu.be/iZEdS3BAA2U

We’ve been anything but on the beach since the FPL season ended. @robtfpl.com and @cmusson.uk have joined Solio as partners, and we couldn’t be more excited for what’s ahead. Read all about it in our latest newsletter: solioanalytics.beehiiv.com/p/robt-moose...

First time our FPL projections are out in the wild. Using RobT's expertise in spread markets and our own analytical approaches, we built it together. Seeing it actually show up in people's timelines as something useful and worth sharing makes me really happy.

Who are the popular picks on #FH34? #FPL #FPLCommunity

Two more seasons. How high do you think the King of #FPL can go?

Can’t wait to join such talented group of people trying to make FPL decision making fun. Thanks for including me in the team. Solio, remember the name.

We’re excited to share that @pras-fpl.bsky.social is joining Solio as a partner and Lead Host for our YouTube channel: youtube.com/@solioanalytics Also: we’ve decided to switch from a soft launch to a closed beta this spring. We’ll need testers—details below. #FPL

Exciting news! @cmusson.uk—aka Moose—is now leading our FPL Python solver as Open-Source & Community Engagement Lead! 🫎 Solio was built on open-source, and with Moose at the helm, we’ll keep growing, contributing, and supporting the community. More to come! #FPL #FPLCommunity

Excited to be building a great new tool with great friends 😊

"Assistant Manager" chip, modeled. ✅ It’s live on the 'am-chip' branch of the solver for testing until the next GW deadline. Includes 3-player limit, ITB, chip restrictions and some initial preliminary projections from @trout-post.com and @jonnyc.bsky.social 🚀 Plan: merge into main this weekend.

Sweaty gimp/Dell Inspiron lifestyle is in fact very fun 🥵🧑‍🍳

I calculated the EVs for the Assistant Manager in each fixture. For now, not factored in probability of being 5 places below so: Pts = EV if they not 5+ places below Pts++ = EV if they are 5+ places below From my team strength model

FPL Towers this season: - Started with the most enjoyable asset pricing in recent years by far - Made changes to FT & chip rules which have made FPL planning much more enjoyable and interesting - Introduced a new chip which is more ambitious & strategically fun than any suggestions I've seen

Mystery/Assistant Manager Chip is great, should be really fun & interesting

New samples are added to #FPL Season Highlights page 🔥 Now you can compare your season to: - Analytics Elite 64 (Run by @analyticf.pl) - Elite 64 (Run by @fplgeneral.bsky.social) - Bullet Wisdom (Analytics Discord) - Analytics Elite Qualifier (Run by @analyticf.pl) fploptimized.com/highlights.h...

In GW9, all Elite 64 members owned Haaland. I WCd into a team without him. I did this not because of any analytics/optimisation insight, but bc City's years of corrupt organisational ethics were bound to result in Haaland kicking the ball with the wrong part of his foot, sometimes even his ankle

GW12 Interesting decision made this week on Lewis -> Digne or roll. The immediate points are worth slightly less than the FT, but this is clearly the best opportunity I'll get to remove Lewis before GW17 and he could continue to plummet in value over the next several GWs. (VC is accidental)

this week's column www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/n...

🐟🤓🤨👨‍🚀🐜

Well, some good news from London 😊

Have been thinking about takeaways from the wonderful bps podcast from @aboveaveragefpl.bsky.social and I think I have found something vaguely interesting re: forwards and the value of their first goal vs additional goals. This season forwards have 191 bonus points from 110 goals.

Introduce yourself with four records

Post a picture you took to bring some zen to the skyline.

For anyone interested, here are some results from a study I did a few years ago Each dot represents projected pts yielded from 50 play-throughs of randomised versions of @fplreview.com's 20/21 data, with a decay rate (α) and FT value (β) selected using Bayesian optimisation (8 GW horizon)

Another one for #FanTeam now, where purchasing power is fairly similar to FPL (which makes sense given the similar formats and player pricing). You can buy between 0.40-0.45 points per GW for £1m right now, so +0.1 budget this week should be worth around 1.1-1.2 points over the rest of season.

Was struggling to get my brain to function with this for a minute (no doubt just me), but reframing the y-axis as "importance of having money" seemed to help. The chart then becomes: "when did having money matter most?" Cool stuff! #FPL

I love drifting off to the slow cascade of solver output 🥱 In fact, I seldom sleep without it The algorithmic lullaby calms my soul. With every passing moment the only certainty is progress towards the global optimal. By the time I wake the duality gap will be zero, but not before I close my eyes

FPL inflation: How has value for money changed across recent seasons? This plot tracks how many additional points you can buy each GW with an a £1m higher budget, since the start of 2021-22 📈

I haven't made an original FPL viz since 2021. Motivation for progress always comes from others, and as the old platform died so did my passion. Excited to finally be creating something new, using data from alllll the way back in 2021 to now 🧑‍🍳 Solver's been running 24hrs straight, nearly finished!

Tracking changes in season-long PL goal projections (and rest of season "goals per game" rates), using historical data from spread betting markets

Any social media platform that I'm welcome to is better than the one I come from youtu.be/fDWV-570oXo?...

FPL FACT of the day The kits are off-center. They are not in the middle of their stupid little cards. Why are they not in the middle

xG fact Say Haaland takes two shots, and each has a (uniform) random xG between 0 and 1. The distribution of the xG of the bigger of the two chances is identical to the distribution of the square root of each chance 🤯