Update: my "path less traveled" BB ended up being BB9 - lucked into my GW1 4.5 fwd having good xmins for a good fix, combined with a ~good fixture for both my GKs. EV on bench was ~13, didn't impact my transfers before or after, scored 14. Overall, happy with taking the opportunistic BB approach.

Most interesting intra-PL transfer of this summer has a lot of candidates: Will Eze (who is incredible) fit okay into arsenal's system? Kudus potential could be unlocked now he seems to be given a position within a structure Will Joao Pedro and Delap make Chelsea better than they were w/Jackson?

New season, new disappointments!

Some big picture thoughts on #fpl 🧵: 1. The value of our free transfers to start the season is a bit lower than it's ever been before because a) defcon points decreases the impact that fixture difficulty has on expected points for a lot of viable picks (defenders and CMs).

The best preseason podcast is here!

Pretty confident we’ll have a live relegation race in 25-26 much later than we’ve seen in recent years

DGW25 including AVLLIV and ARSCHE (on a contingent basis) was a surprise, but this DGW32 announcement for CRYNEW is bigger. There's been a complete change in PL rescheduling policy: no preference between rescheduling in open midweeks vs. European midweeks and prioritization of notice for fans.

This guy’s work is sooooo good

My econ 101 textbooks 20 years ago said tariffs create dead-weight loss and threaten comparative advantage. Feels bad.

Fixture info that you have to react to quickly is my favorite bit of FPL. Had 3 LIV already and decided to just play AM on moyes and roll 2 FTs. But there are lots of other cool, well figured out strategies. And there will be loads more after the CC semi results next week. Good luck all

Bournemouth continue to cook and there's a new starter (🍡!) who warrants evaluating! So I figured I'd make a new (far too long) 🧵. Again, I'm not a Cherries fan (hope they have an off day on Sat), just a regular watcher and admirer of Iraola-ball and their players. So take this for what you will

The AM chip is going to be very swingy and cause a lot of angst, but it's fun to analyze. After last week, FUL-NFO (GW25) will 100% be table bonus game; that boosts AM24. I think there's likely to be higher EV windows later in the season, but it's worth considering for those well set for it (<3 LIV)

FPL viz goat and former MD1 now sharing fixture permutations in a perfectly explained way. Only thing I could add is that there’s a teeny tiny chance of TGW36 or DGW37 (most likely for LIV and AVL) imo. Otherwise no notes 🔥

The BEST data we have yet had re: the AM chip (laid out in a beautiful set of visualizations to boot!). Some interesting takeaways from this to be had!

Agonized on this one for a while, because I initially (pre-Evanilson news) wanted to roll, and then was sorely tempted by one of the Everton FWDs in prep for DGW24, but eventually went Evanilson to Raul (roll second FT). Hopefully this can be my last transfer for a few gameweeks.

The best early chip strategy discussion and lesson on how to value transfers under the new ruleset you will find imho.

I wonder if the PL will now start to look for Spurs’ DGW25 prospects or whether they’ll risk *TGW36* if they’re forced to that!🤔 #TOTLIV #FPL

GW19: Roll to 3FTs. 4 strong defenders this week, which eventually made me decide against Munoz (very much have fomo there) and decided to stay the course with Bruno. Benched the defender who I had very slight benching concerns about. GL all!

Here's my best guess at the Chelsea XI for this week. So many positions up in the air and it's impossible to know how much Maresca will rotate. He has hinted at it, but said himself that he didn't know how many changes would be made. Lineup and shape similar to the away games at Sou and Lei

Made my transfer early to enjoy the holiday, FPL free. Verbruggen to Alisson, ignoring the Arsenal opportunities 😬. See you on Boxing Day BlueSky!

This throws a lot more uncertainty of the rescheduling of EVELIV. Prior article indicated that TNT had penciled the game in for Tuesday Feb 11th (DGW24), but that's no longer possible if Liverpool get to the FAC 4th round (that game will now have to Sun Feb 9th or later). DGW 24 vs. 25 back to 50/50

Using league positions & market odds, these would have been the pre-deadline xPts for the #FPL assistant manager chip last season 👇 Outside of a few MCI/LIV games, the highest scoring gameweeks (>10 xPts) were either: - DGWs (red) - 'table bonus' eligible fixtures (yellow)

Having now seen some excellent sim-based analysis, my gut shot EV estimate was ~10 too high for the AM Chip - looks like it's worth 30-40. The more the actual PL table differs from the xGD table late in the season (GW31-38), the more valuable it's going to be to have held it for the late doubles.

After hemming and hawing about it all week I ended up prioritizing getting TAA now (with cash from mbeumo to semenyo) over saving a transfer for future flexibility. Obviously doesn’t look great after Liverpool game, but tomorrow will determine the outcome of the week really.

MD6 of the UCL ends with 12 teams on 12 or more points (within 6 points of liverpool) and not enough of them are left to play each other to auto-qualify Liverpool in top 8 yet, so I don't think we'll see a DGW announcement until after GW22

I'll leave debate on whether it's a good or bad thing to others. My initial reaction on the Assistant Manager Chip is as follows: - Has EV of 40-50 if used optimally so it's most powerful chip - Probs optimal to chase table-bonus - Using 2FTs on AM changes likely gives a lot of EV, so FT val 📈

Although Liverpool beat Girona, I think a DGW announcement for EVELIV before Jan 21st (pre-GW22) got less likely tonight, because Liverpool look fairly unlikely to be mathematically guaranteed top 8 by the end of this matchday. 7 teams already within 6 points, and up to 5 more can get there tomorrow

Feb 19th/20th (DGW25) looks likeliest for EVELIV to me. I'd go something like 15% GW24, 50% GW25, 35% other gameweeks (most probable other individual weeks being 33&36) right now. Unless Liverpool beat both Girona and Southampton in the CC QF, I don't think we'll see an ann't 'til after Jan 21st

This tbh

Arsenal have created an open play expected goal in one of their last eight Premier League matches. Across the season as a whole it's three of 15. They rank 13th in the Premier League for open play xG.

Info value and FT value very high. Rolled

Will roll again I guess. Getting Trent might be the optimal move for me, but ensuring I wake up at 530am to check if Trent’s actually playing football tomorrow doesn’t feel like it is.

Roll

The most FPL-relevant (and hardest) Chelsea lineup to predict this season, and this guy's the savviest around re: Chelsea.

Have seen a few considering Semenyo vs. Kluivert this week for FPL and I have a bit of a crush on Bournemouth so thought I might throw a thread together. 🧵

GW13 - Went early on Raul --> JP on Saturday and seem to have gotten away with it. Raul still good. JP better. Hoping this little lot can be rolled for at least two gameweeks now but let's see...

I have found Kulu to be one of the most interesting and fun PL players to watch for a while, but I've struggled to put my finger on why. This post helped. He has elite "non-traditional" athleticism (+ excellent technical ability). the article up in the thread is worth a read for NBA/PL fans also.

Radars don't always properly characterize CBs, but here's my best effort at a custom chart comparing 24/25 VVD vs. "might never be the same post-injury" VVD in 22/23 vs. "peak of his powers/GOAT CB?" VVD in 19/20. 22/23 issues fixed and his elite skills are fading so slowly it's barely perceptible

Trent and Son —> Timber and Palmer. Considered some spicier options but eventually settled here. Little nervous about Timber’s fitness relative to Saliba but the 0.5 savings gives more/earlier paths back to Trent, which I liked. No more IBs for ages now 🥳, GL everyone!

Have been thinking about takeaways from the wonderful bps podcast from @aboveaveragefpl.bsky.social and I think I have found something vaguely interesting re: forwards and the value of their first goal vs additional goals. This season forwards have 191 bonus points from 110 goals.

It's no secret that Ryan Gravenberch has been a revelation for Liverpool this season, so figured I'd try to understand why/how. Below illustrates he has improved in almost all areas but particularly in his pass completion rate and the amount he is dispossessed (this is the key one I believe). Long🧵

A timely and excellent episode from my new favorite podcast (thanks for the recommendation @sertalpbilal.bsky.social!) podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/2...

Who is going to be first on here to break the news of a new contract for the Egyptian King? #LFC

WC4 squad starting to creak a little bit. Probably going to use both FTs and roll none for the first time this season...