After strong pre-poll results for the LNP, my system is now calling the Hinchinbrook by-election www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...

The race is tightening in Hinchinbrook as larger centres come in, the early rural booths having swung massively against KAP. LNP still favoured, but a different dynamic on pre-polls could change things. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...

Katter's have a vague hope in the Hinchinbrook by-election stemming from the fact that the swing against is weaker at the Townsville end than in the rural booths that have mostly reported so far. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...

The Katter's vote has fallen by more than half across six rural booths in the Hinchinbrook by-election, leaving the LNP well placed to gain the seat. I'm projecting a One Nation vote of 15.4%, compared with 4.6%, which they would need to improve on to get in contention.

Newspoll: 58-42 to Labor. ALP 36% (steady), L-NP 24% (steady), GRN 13% (up two) and ON 15% (steady). www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/23/n...

I'm now calling #kiamavotes for Labor www.pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...

Not calling it yet, but with three booths in on the primary vote, the Liberals look well short of where they need to be in #kiamavotes pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...

Tasmanian voters have been treated to a state election result that pleased no one and resolved nothing, @pollbludger.bsky.social writes.

Now it's Labor's turn to "wait for the pre-polls to come in" #tasvotes

Eric Abetz on the ABC wishes he has 2024 figures for comparison from Irishtown. Right here, Eric. Swings shown below compared with that booth from last time. #tasvotes

First booths are in for #tasvotes and the big news is that my live results system seems to be working. Huge result for the Liberals in Irishtown, FWIW (not much). Follow the action here: www.pollbludger.net/tas2025/Resu...

You appear to be asking for the dataset, which you're never going to get, but the question of who's paying for it (nobody, in this case) is answered in the methodology statement d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Yo...

For today's podcast, I was joined by @pollbludger.bsky.social to go through each of five electorates in the Tasmanian state election, and also discuss the latest polls #politas #tasvotes

YouGov: Labor 34, Liberal 31, Greens 13, independents 18 in Tasmania. Plus the new Poll Bludger election guide. www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/30/t...

A YouGov South Australian state poll in @thetiser.bsky.social has Labor leading 67-33 www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/21/y...

The AEC confirms this is the final result (pending preference distribution and possible recount) -- the 86 have Senate votes only.

Tim Wilson's lead in Goldstein in today from 206 to 128. 86 envelopes awaiting scrutiny, but some of them will presumably be rejected. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...

Update on the Calwell preference distribution: www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/19/l...

Nicolette Boele leads in Bradfield by 19. A maximum 280 declaration pre-polls to come. pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...

They're drowning in it

It's to do with me being on the road, but it's updating for at least the time being and I'm hoping I can keep that going

2500 words on Chinese Australians losing faith with the Liberals, and the only mention of the party whose leader said Australia was in danger of being swamped by them, to whom the Libs directed preferences, is an utterly irrelevant shot at the teals theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/can...

Modelling the Senate outcome. A close race in WA gives One Nation a chance of a third seat, and some cold water for The Australian's enthusiasm about Jacqui Lambie losing her seat www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/18/s...

Australians take a lot of pride in their preferential voting system. But does it actually suck? Robert Lechte argues it doesn't reflect voter sentiment: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a... William Bowe argues it ensures government accountability: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...

Bradfield back in play after a batch of out-of-division pre-polls breaks 298-179 to Nicolette Boele, cutting her deficit from 178 to 59. Based on how late counting has been counting, my probability estimate is probably an under-estimate. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...

My database records 13: ten Labor (Plibersek, Leigh, Albanese, Rishworth, Husic, Dick, Thistlethwaite, Rowland and Chalmers) and three Nationals (Chester, Joyce, Webster). Rishworth an interesting case: she gained Kingston from the Libs in 2007, and redistributions have done her more harm than good.

Queensland is ALP 2, LNP 2, GRN 1, ON 1, and NSW, VIC and SA are ALP 3, L-NP 2, GRN 1. With the territories status quo, likely final numbers are ALP 30, L-NP 27, GRN 11, ON 2, plus Lambie, Pocock, Babet, Tyrell, Thorpe and Payman.

According to the Poll Bludger's sophistimucated modelling, two Senate contests are in doubt: WA, either ALP 3, LIB 2, GRN 1 or (less likely) ALP 2, LIB 2, GRN 1, ON 1; and TAS, either ALP 2, LIB 2, GRN 1, JLN 1 or (less likely) ALP 3, LIB 1, GRN 1, JLN 1. pollbludger.net/2025/05/11/l...

Labor won a landslide with barely a third of the vote. Now all eyes will move to the Senate, with a shift leftwards on the cards if the Coalition's disastrous lower house vote is anything to go by.

With polls closed on the eastern seaboard, the Poll Bludger's live results feature is in business: pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...

"As per 2022 federal election preference flows with the exception of One Nation and Family First preference flows which were set at 2024 Queensland election levels." This means they've bumped up the Coalition's share of ON preferences from 64.3% to 73%.

Final DemosAU poll: 52-48 to Labor. Sample 4100, so useful breakdowns by state and region. demosau.com/wp-content/u...

Interesting article on preference flows at Federal elections and in recent polling, plus projections of results on Saturday under various possible flows #auspol

A post on the election's great imponderable: preference flows www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/01/g...

A second poll for the day from DemosAU has a collective result for Bonner, Dickson, Forde, Longman and Petrie: ALP 27 (-3.2), LNP 40 (-1), Greens 13 (+1.4), One Nation 7 (+0.5), Trumpet of Patriots 2 (-3). TPP: LNP 53 (-0.4), ALP 47 (+0.4). www.afr.com/politics/fed...

I don't know if they've changed it, but for the past few months they have been giving the Coalition a higher share of One Nation preferences than they got in 2022

YouGov: 53-47 to Labor www.pollbludger.net/2025/04/17/y...

Western Australian upper house result: Labor 16, Liberal 10, Nationals 2, Greens 4, One Nation 2, and one each for Australian Christians, Animal Justice and Legalise Cannabis www.pollbludger.net/2025/04/16/w...

Button pressed on WA Legislative Council count at 3pm tomorrow

BludgerTrack poll aggregate now favours Labor 51.6-48.4 after Newspoll's 52-48 and Resolve Strategic's 53.5-46.5, with a particularly striking trend coming through on the leaders' net approval ratings. www.pollbludger.net

YouGov: 52.5-47.5 to Labor. www.pollbludger.net/2025/04/11/y...

I speak too soon www.pollbludger.net/wp-content/b...

Button press on the WA Legislative Council count from 10am tomorrow

The Courier Mail's take on the Queensland government's breach of one of its central promises to voters in the regional areas where the LNP cleaned up in October.

No TCP is provided for Griffith, but a conservative estimate based on 2022 election flows puts the Greens between 52-48 and 53-47 in front

I see now the online version has full results missing from the print, which actually suggest ALP and not LNP winning Brisbane. The "Brisbane to turn blue" heading seems based on an LNP v GRN TCP that would be redundant and looks implausible in terms of preference flows besides.

Read between the lines of this News Corp report on Greens seat polling and it shows them gaining Macnamara, matching 2022 in Melbourne and at least competitive in Ryan, Griffith and Wills, but losing Brisbane. www.heraldsun.com.au/news/nationa...

Also 3933 primary votes added in Kalamunda, which should cut about 100 from a 180-vote Liberal lead. But most of the outstanding votes will be postals, which will likely favour the Liberals.

Two developments from South Perth. A batch of absent votes will likely add about 150 to Labor's 189 lead. And a revision yesterday that shifted about 70 votes from Labor to Liberal looks like it was an error. #wavotes www.pollbludger.net/2025/03/09/w...

Simone McGurk looks home and hosed in Fremantle -- her lead is now 342 after another batch of absents broke strongly her way. But rechecking in South Perth has cut Labor's lead from 345 to 139.