Absentee Voting 6/1 Update We are nearing 35,000 votes 8 days out from the primary. Democrats continue to submit ballots at nearly 3x the rate of Republicans. Accepted Ballots 🟦25,634 🟥9,059 #MEpolitics

This is such interesting data. Even with open primaries being so brand-new, there are almost as many unenrolled voters voting in primaries via absentee as there are Republicans! And with a very contentious gubernatorial primary for an open seat!

11 Day Pre Primary Report for Gov (4/22-5/26) 🟦Shah: $234k 🟦Bellows: $202k 🟦Pingree: $175k (+45k loan) 🟦Jackson: $164k 🟦King III: $94k (+$700k loan) 🟥Bush: $170k (+250k loan) 🟥Charles: $92k (+20k loan) 🟥Midgley: $29k 🟥Mason: $18k 🟥Jones: $18k (+25k loan) #MEpolitics

Absentee Voting 5/29 Update Democratic ballots are being submitted almost 3-to-1 compared to GOP. Unenrolled voters continue to select Dem ballots at a similar rate. Also, 12% of all registered Dem voters have requested a ballot. Accepted Ballots 🟦23,954 🟥8,394 #MEpolitics

The SOS is giving us insight into which party Unenrolled voters are selecting their ballots and they are heavily favoring Democratic primary ballots so far. Ballot Requests of Unenrolled Voters 🟦2,237 (77%) 🟥656 (23%) #MEpolitics

Absentee Voting 5/12 Update No excuse absentee voting is underway for the Maine primaries. Total votes are up from the 2022 as more consequential primaries are happening along with Unenrolled voters being able to participate. Accepted Ballots 🟦522 🟥183 #MEpolitics

The 42-day pre-primary financial reports came out yesterday (Jan 1-Apr 21). Pingree and Bellows continue to lead the way in fundraising. Top 5 🟦Pingree: $516K 🟦Bellows: $513K 🟦Shah: $371K 🟥Bush: $346K 🟥Charles: $249K #MEpolitics

Q1 Fundraising Numbers Contributions (vs Q4) 🟦Platner: $4.1M (-$530k) 🟦Mills: $2.7M (-$50k) 🟥Collins: $3.1M (+850k) COH 🟦Platner: $2.7M 🟦Mills: $1.1M 🟥Collins: $10.0M While Mills and Platner spend in the primary, Collins is sitting on cash for the general #MEpolitics

Here are the way-too-early ME legislature race ratings Based on what we are seeing from the national environment, Maine Democrats appear to be in a good position to pick up seats in November. ME Sen: 2 🔴->🔵 🔵22 🔴13 ME House: 12 🔴->🔵 🔵87 (+3🟡) 🔴61 #MEpolitics

There are 32 primaries happening within the Maine legislative elections. 8 in the Senate and 24 in the House. That is nearly double the amount from 2024. Almost every senate primary will have GE implications. June 9 will be very lively! #MEpolitics

We need a bold new vision for our state. That’s why my plan- a New Deal for Maine- reimagines an economy that works for everyone.

The recent BDN article showing GOP gains in many Maine towns has caused some debate on here. The article rightfully points out the shifts, especially in central and northern ME, happening over the last 5 years. But I don't think it gives a full picture of voter reg #MEpolitics

Some good news for Democrats in Maine as former rep David McCrea will be running again in HD3. McCrea had the best overperformance of any losing candidate in 2024 2024 ME House: R+7.8🔴 US President: R+24.3🔴 A ~D+8 environment would make this a race to watch #MEpolitics

Recent polling has shown Graham Platner leading Janet Mills in the primary and doing better against Susan Collins in the general. 🔵Mills: 44% 🔴Collins: 45% (+0.4) 🔵Platner: 46% (+3) 🔴Collins: 43% #MEpolitics

The Pan Atlantic 68th Omnibus Poll also shows Graham Platner performing better than Janet Mills in the H2H matchup with Susan Collins 🔵Platner: 44% 🔴Collins: 40% 🔵Mills: 44% 🔴Collins: 44% The Dec poll had both Mills and Platner essentially even with Collins #MEpolitics

Pan Atlantics 68th Omnibus Poll shows Graham Platner leading Janet Mills by 7pts 🟣Platner: 46% (+9) 🟢Mills: 39% (-8) Undecided: 11% (-3) (Change since December) This poll comes on the heels of the recent UNH poll showing Platner up by 38pts #MEpolitics

Here's who has had their signatures certified to get access to the primary ballot in Maine as of Monday. Still waiting on Mills along with a number of other candidates on the governor side (and all of the congressional candidates) #MEpolitics

February Polling Average Update for the US Senate Dem Primary in Maine Polling Avg (Change since Dec - 1 new poll) 🟪Platner: 47.2% (+3.6) 🟩Mills: 38.2% (+0.2) Platner is not only hanging with the 2-term governor, but is likely ahead based on current polling #MEpolitics

Tomorrow is Special Election Tuesday in Maine! HD94 in Lewiston will vote to replace retiring Rep Kristen Cloutier (D). City Councilor Scott Harriman (D) will face School Committee Member Janet Beaudoin (R). 2024 Result ME House: D+19🔵 President: D+14🔵 #MEpolitics

Q4 2025 campaign finance breakdown for the U.S. Senate and CD2 House race Top line contributions: Platner Dominated 🟦Platner: $4.6M 🟦Mills: $2.7M 🟥Collins: $2.2M No matter the matchup, the Dem and Collins will have plenty of cash to run a long, tough campaign #MEpolitics

The Census Bureau recently released their state-to-state migration estimates for 2024. Below is the net migration to/from Maine 🟦Highest Net: NH -> ME: 1,258 🟥Lowest Net: ME -> NC: 1,276 #MEpolitics

A very Maine article, partially using distance from a Hannaford to determine ruralness Most rural towns: 10. Moscow 9. Eustis 8. Portage Lake 7. Jackman 6. Masardis 5. Danforth 4. Weston 3. Allagash 2. Moose River 1. Topsfield #MEpolitics www.bangordailynews.com/2026/01/21/p...

From my estimates, 11 State Senators contributed to a gubernatorial candidate (not including candidates who are currently serving). Pingree received the most support among Dems, while James Libby is the only Republican to receive any donations from the ME Senate #MEpolitics

2025 In-State Contributions by candidate for the ME Gov Race Bellows has raised the most money from within Maine. Bellows also has the highest % of her money coming from Maine among Dems (70%). Wessels (90%) and Jones (85%) have the highest % from Mainers among Rs. #MEpolitics

2025 Contributions by Candidate for the ME Gov Race 🔵Pingree: $1.4M 🔵Bellows: $1.1M 🔴Bush: $964K 🔵King III: $908K 🔵Jackson: $644K 🔴Charles: $541K 🟡Bennett: $529K 🔵Shah: $510K 🔴Jones: $440K 🔴McCarthy: $336K 🔴Midgley: $251K #MEpolitics

As expected, State Senator Joe Baldacci has joined a small field of Democratic candidates in the ME02 House race. He'll face Jordan Wood and Matt Dunlap in the primary. A recent Pan Atlantic poll for Baldacci showed him as the current favorite #mepolitics www.bangordailynews.com/2026/01/12/p...

Active Voter changes in Maine from 2024-2025 Democrats: -4,711 (-0.5%) Republicans: -1,670 (-0.2%) Unenrolled: +23,317 (+2.2%) The majority of the increase in unenrolled voters is due to No Labels withdrawing from Maine #MEpolitics

There have been three polls testing both Mills and Platner against Collins in a general election. Polling Average 🔵Platner: 42% 🔴Collins: 40% 🔵Mills: 42% 🔴Collins: 42% #MEpolitics

December Polling Average Update for the US Senate Dem Primary in Maine Polling Average (Change since Nov - 2 new polls) 🟣Platner: 43.6% (-1.7) 🟢Mills: 38.0% (+5.7) Polls in this race are showing everything from Platner+20 to Mills+10 #mepolitics

Pan Atlantic Research, as part of their 67th Omnibus Poll, also polled the CD2 race for Joe Baldacci, who is considering jumping in the race. Dem Primary Baldacci: 42% Dunlap: 10% Wood: 10% Undecided: 38% General 🔵Baldacci: 43% 🔴LePage: 44% #mepolitics

Just under 500,000 people cast ballots in this off-year election. That represents: 1⃣47% of Active voters📈 (from Febs voter roll) 2⃣An increase of 82k voters from 2023📈 Maine continues to have some of the nation's best voter participation every election #mepolitics

Q1's No margin was 2.6pts larger than Q2s Yes margin. Populous southern, coastal Maine voted slightly more in favor of Q2, while central Maine voted stronger against Q1 #mepolitics

Both No and 1 and Yes on 2 won in CD1 and CD2. The margins also far outpaced Harris' 2024 margin of 6.9pts. Q1 CD1: No+41.9🟦 CD2: No+12.0🟦 Q2 CD1: Yes+41.2🟦 CD2: Yes+7.1🟦 2024 President CD1: Harris+21.6🟦 CD2: Trump+9.0🟥 #mepolitics

The SOS has released the official election results for the Nov 4 Referendums Q1 (Voter ID and other restrictions) REJECTED by 28.4pts❌ Q2 (Red Flag Law) PASSED by 25.8pts✅ #mepolitics

Husband and Wife, David Haggan (SD10) and Kimberly Haggan (HD36), are the most conservative members of each respective state house according to the scorecard averages. State Sen David Haggan Avg: 1.9% State Rep Kim Haggan Avg: 0.4% #mepolitics

2025 ME House Scorecard Average Below are the average scores for ME House members across 5 different scorecards. (100%=Most Dem) 🟦Most Bipartisan Ds O'Halloran-HD20: 67.8% Bunker-HD75: 81.5% 🟥Most Bipartisan Rs Lanigan-HD141: 11.6% Foley-HD145: 11.3% #mepolitics

2025 ME Sen Legislative Scorecard Average Below are the average scores for ME State Senators across 5 different scorecards. (100%=Most Dem) 🟦Most Bipartisan Ds Hickman-SD14: 78.8% Baldacci-SD9: 86.2% 🟥Most Bipartisan Rs Bennett-SD18: 50.7% Bradstreet-SD15: 8.1% #mepolitics

State Senator for Bangor and Hermon Joe Baldacci, brother of former Maine Governor John Baldacci, would be a solid candidate for the Democrats. He overperformed the top of the ticket by nearly 7pts in 2024 and is one of the most bipartisan lawmakers #mepolitics x.com/polltracker2...

Graham Platner is currently leading Janet Mills in the polling average for the US Senate Dem primary by 13pts. #mepolitics

Looking at town results on BDN for Q1 and Q2. Northern ME saw huge shifts from '24. Caribou '24 Prez: Trump+20 '25 Q1: No+3 (23pt shift 🔵) Fort Fairfield '24 Prez: Trump+19 '25 Q1: No+7 (26pt shift 🔵) Presque Isle '24 Prez: Trump+9 '25 Q1: No+18 (27pt shift 🔵) #mepolitics

The referendum results underscore a big issue for Maine Rs. They need to improve their margins in large municipalities or they will continue to lose ground, especially in non-presidential years. The largest 10 munis in ME are currently voting >25 pts left of the state #mepolitics

Per the new MPA scorecard, here are the most bipartisan legislators for each party in ‘25 GOP turned Indy Gov candidate Rick Bennett is the most bipartisan State Sen GOP Rep Lucas Lanigan, indicted on domestic violence charges in March, is the most bipartisan R Rep #mepolitics

In 2020, Susan Collins had the third biggest drop in margin of any incumbent senator between two elections since 2000. 2014: Collins +37.0 2020: Collins +8.6 (-28.4) Only Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Ted Stevens (R-AK) had bigger drops of 33pts and 70pts, respectively #mepolitics

The GOP has been trying to win HD44 for years and with Bill Pluecker (I) term-limited they may finally get their chance. HD104 and HD107 should be clear targets for Dems as Arata is term-limited and Cooper is in a Harris district which had an independent running in '24 #mepolitics

Here's an early look at the best pickup opportunities for each party in the ME House 🟦Democrats: 25 🟥Republicans: 12 Even a moderate midterm advantage for Democrats should leave them in a great position to expand their majority #mepolitics

SD8 is trending right relative to the state, but will likely stay in Dem hands with a favorable midterm environment and Tipping running again. SD20 trended similarly to the state from '20 to '24. Bickford benefitted from a progressive independent running #mepolitics

Here's a very early look at where Dems and GOP will be looking to pick up seats in the 2026 ME Senate races. Best Pickup Opps Rs - SD8 (Mike Tipping - D) 🟥2024 Prez: R+2.1 🟦2024 ME Sen: D+0.6 Ds - SD20 (Bruce Bickford - R) 🟦2024 Prez: D+0.9 🟥2024 ME Sen: R+4.4 #mepolitics

With Paul LePage jumping into the ME-02 race, let's look back at his last two elections for governor. In 2014, LePage won CD2 and narrowly lost CD1. In his 2022 return to politics, he lost massive ground in CD1 and barely won CD2 in route to a 13pt statewide defeat #mepolitics

We're still 11 months from the primaries, but the gubernatorial race is already heating up. Democrats Hannah Pingree and Shenna Bellows have already raised over $500k with Bobby Charles on the Republican side bringing in over $300k #mepolitics

Lake Research Partners, Pan Atlantic Research and UNH have all tested Susan Collins’ favorability recently and come away varying results Net Fav 4/17 LRP: -33 ⬇️ 5/26 PAR: +4 ⬆️ 6/23 UNH: -42 ⬇️ I would presume it’s closer to +4, but the data is saying otherwise #mepolitics