“Like free Black people before the Civil War who carried the burden of proof to demonstrate that they were not enslaved people […], the burden of proof today has been borne disproportionately by US citizens and immigrants who are people of color…” Fascinating piece re evolution of mobility rights!

TIL there's an "End Prediction Market Corruption Act" bill that would ban (a subset) of government officials from trading on non-public information, sponsored by Merkley and co-sponsored by four fellow Senate Dems, and IMHO more lawmakers should get on board. www.congress.gov/bill/119th-c...

My newest for @donmoyn.bsky.social 's blog! I wrote about prediction markets, and why governing them is, at its core, a federalism problem.
 Polymarket and Kalshi are caught between a federal regulator claiming exclusive jurisdiction and states insisting it's theirs to police. /1 🧵

‘Canadians don’t want to come here any more’: anger over Trump squeezes US border businesses

Over the last 25 years, six people who contracted measles in the U.S. died from it. A model built by Stanford researchers predicts that if Americans could no longer get the vaccine, measles could kill about 290,000 people in the next 25 years.

The federalism of it all 🤌🏽

Today in #cdnpoli, I guess. I mean. Ok. “While discussing the region’s potential for growth in sectors like green energy, Carney expressed himself freely when host interviewer Seamus O’Regan suggested that government regulations probably aren’t all that sexy[…]” www.saltwire.com/nova-scotia/...

The decision was made over urgent objections from some of the administration's own health and child welfare officials; experts say the government is trying to prevent access to abortion.

there's a new report out from YouGov using CES data to plot trends in partisanship over the past two decades. i've got a piece up today in @goodauth.bsky.social summarizing some key findings. check out both! GA piece: goodauthority.org/news/long-st... YouGov report: yougov.com/en-us/articl...

“Roughly 3 in 4 employees no longer feel safe reporting suspected legal or regulatory violations.” The paradox is that weak bureaucracy enables more misconduct: it fuels self-serving behaviour among some employees while pushing others to act as ad hoc watchdogs (e.g., leaking information).

"In 2013, the Supreme Court ruled that a [state] law that forced an arrested person to give their DNA to police was constitutional. But that case involved clear restrictions: It involved a law that required the arrest be for a serious crime, and the arrest had to be lawful, based on probable cause."

In 2024, @sranderson.bsky.social explained how Congress barred the president from exiting NATO unilaterally–and the gaps that remain regarding enforcement of the legislation.

"Baumann’s answer is Congress, and so is mine. Last year, I wrote briefly of the need for an imperial Congress, by which I meant a legislature that claims the full suite of powers and prerogatives granted to it under the Constitution." (Followed by a list of roadblocks.) Interesting.

One of the weirdest parts of this is the dialogue it has sparked. A very well-known Canadian lawyer is now arguing that this injunction possibly violates s.7 of the Charter because these prolific sperm donors have "the right to reproduce." Here's why that's a strange argument to make 🧵/1

What an AMAZING game! #WBC ⚾️

Majority of Canadians say it’s better to depend on China than on the US under Trump. In other key allies - Germany, UK, France - a plurality say the same. www.politico.com/news/2026/03...

"Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has repeatedly called the site “the future of news,” and has suggested that prediction markets give the public a more clear picture of events because money is on the line" Or we could not think of this depravity with such optimism. Considering, you know, the horrors.

Maksym Butkevych, the Ukrainian human rights activist, was held in Russian captivity for more than two years. I had the pleasure of listening to his thoughts about freedom a couple of times recently. snyder.substack.com/p/a-world-ap...

I have a short piece sitting in an editor’s inbox right now on a version of this question. My hypothesis: litigation isn’t a constraint on this administration, it is a process they extract political value from through signalling to their base, issue salience, and chilling effects.

One of the best ways I’ve seen treaty negotiations summarized this midterm grading season: "and discussions were had."

“This is why the deprofessionalization of American federal agencies is not a paradox. […] And it does not require extremism to succeed. It requires only that enough career-pressured people accept the terms on offer — and that enough top performers exit, retire early, or keep their heads down.”

🧵 It's worth highlighting that these tools work differently: 287(g) = deputizes local police for federal immigration enforcement SCAAP = fiscal federalism with DOJ reimbursing states/localities for incarceration costs tied to undocumented people with criminal convictions /1

This feels like a good reminder that “free trade agreements” are never just about trade.

You can hear me on the Daily today, talking about the robot wars future we are all hurtling into. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/p...

🧵Feels like shouting into the void, but it is essential to note that the Trump/Rubio gutting of the State Department and blowtorching of US diplomatic capacity and credibility is an accelerant to this spiraling war and will seriously undercut US/allied efforts to pick up the pieces after. 1/

Cool. A retirement plan that perfectly aligns with my existing millennial skillset: just kinda guessing and then hoping for the best.

An analysis of over 14 million social media posts from accounts in Canada found that 87% of conspiratorial claims come from just 100 influencers. This minority of users impacts politics, influencing what people view as normal and leads to self-censoring to avoid attacks from conspiracy theorists.

A blocked order still signals intent, keeps an issue salient, and produces months of political conflict. The performance of executive overreach, and the consequences that come with it, may be a feature of policymaking here, not a bug.

Lawsuits are certainly a check on executive overreach. But, we also may want to consider whether inevitable litigation is actually part of the larger governance strategy for this administration.

"In January, someone on Polymarket made a series of suspiciously well-timed bets right before the U.S. attacked a foreign country and deposed its leader. By the time Nicolás Maduro was extracted from Venezuela and flown to New York, the user had pocketed more than $400,000." Oh.

“Americans are allowed to claim refugee status in Canada, but there are only a few hundred cases pending. Most are quickly dismissed because the claimants hail from what’s politically categorized as a “safe” nation…” macleans.ca/politics/ame...

I keep seeing videos of Americans, who are admitting they are in Canada on regular tourist visas, claiming to be “refugees” fleeing the United States and seeking asylum. And… I’m not sure what the grift is here, but no. You are not. 🧵

“…around one-third of the world’s supply of crude oil, methanol, and fertilizer as well as around one-fifth of the world’s liquid natural gas (LNG) and natural gas derivatives such as butane and propane are exported through the Strait of Hormuz.”

When someone says „Scientists do not want you to know“ you can dismiss everything from there on. Scientists want you to know. They are desperate that you know. They can’t shut up about what they found out and want you to know.

Former Canadian diplomat Sabine Nölke called Carney and Anand’s Feb. 28 statement “quite problematic." “This is support for a doctrine of pre-emptive strike, which Canada has not traditionally supported." www.hilltimes.com/story/2026/0...

Canadians aren’t just staying home/travelling elsewhere. The majority (79%) are more fearful than hopeful about the year ahead. The majority (74%) also believe that U.S. aggression will escalate and more “regime-change operations” will occur. angusreid.org/fear-factor-...

Seeeee @cnn.com @ms.now. The people demand niche 287(g) and federalism content. Hire me. [Narrator voice] She would, in fact, do anything to avoid her dissertation. (To my supervisor: this is a joke. I am writing sooo much. I swear.)

States can choose whether and how to participate in 287(g) agreements with ICE. While many are becoming less keen on cooperation, others are committed to their partnerships with ICE🧵

It wouldn’t be a normal evening in Toronto if at least one raccoon wasn’t coming up to your office window and staring at you like you owe it money.

🧺 Paper Picnic 2.0 is here! More journals. New features. An easier way to keep up with the latest research in political science and adjacent fields. 🧵👇

Mapping chokepoints in the federal system (and there are many more than we know) is really useful right now. 3 thoughts: (1) Choke points are harder to use when state/local governments are revenue-starved. Harder still when feds arbitrarily cut aid in discretionary programs (~$14b in 2025 alone).

Another one for @donmoyn.bsky.social ‘s Substack! We’ve heard about the role of private firms in immigration enforcement - but what about intergovernmental agreements? 287(g) agreements enable the feds to increase capacity by using local law enforcement - it also diffuses accountability.

For all those who responded to my post below by claiming "AI will just fly our planes or perform our surgeries & the results will be much better than what we get from error-prone humans:" enjoy the fruits of your Doomsday Machine!* * watch "Dr. Strangelove" www.newscientist.com/article/2516...

I’ll take “things that won’t work” for $500. nationalpost.com/news/canada/...

Annnnnnd a silver for Canada. What a game! 🏒

Overtime!

me as CAN-U.S. women’s Olympic hockey goes into overtime

AAHHHHHHHHHH

Polling from Angus Reid suggests the same. “By a four-to-one margin, Canadians are more fearful (79%) than hopeful (21%) about the year ahead.” angusreid.org/fear-factor-...

I regularly see people wondering how it's possible that there are so many musicians and writers and film makers and artists from a tiny nation like Iceland. And the answer is really simple: State funding for art education and artists. I literally get a salary from the government to write books.