This technology has created a power + return structure that requires it to be destructive first and beneficial second vs No it won’t.

No one wants to hear this but these guys are making the next BRK type fandom

I haven’t seen AI as a bubble in some time, but I really question those with a strong opinion that it isn’t if you are not up close and personal with how knowledge workers are using these tools.

I feel like it’s under-reported how variable AI output is becoming. Would Google have become as dominant if every 3 weeks, searching for a restaurant yielded extremely different quality results?

Who asked for the talks to be on Saturday morning?

Don’t think this ceasefire lasts, either

Idk what’s gonna happen but I was raised right: to buy calls when the president threatens annihilation

Once you get “Trump reciting the Shahada” into your mind, it never goes away

I love how stupid we’re all getting

*Vibes based analysis* This seems like an environment where an AI shoe could drop and really get people in trouble.

It’s so sick that you can tweet false and misleading information just because you have a fake job like “Secretary of Energy”

Think this is roughly right, but the OS models also get some low end SMB-like use cases.

2026 Predictions: * Consumer preferences will go from hostile to only mildly negative for AI in media/outputs. * The Year of AI Psychosis * We’ll keep ascending AI benchmarks, keep hyperbolizing, and keep wondering why it doesn’t quite get the job done.

A few observations on AI that have been interesting to me: * A significant rise in engineers calling the recent models AGI. * A general investor reluctance to admit there’s a bubble, even though most of the industry admit one * The implication that there’s no value in deterministic processes.

“We’ll see how [obviously bad thing] turns out in the data” is such a good online position to always hold because it lets you be both incredibly pompous and so late to everything that you can pretend “but that’s obvious” when you turn out to be wrong.

b438f3ce24f2aa1318128c47fc7a5b61

Do not say this in polite company

A brain fully imprisoned by the Laffer curve and handcuffed by tax policy. Reversing tariffs will be the *easiest* of the tasks ahead for the next president.

The serious person take on all this is that somehow SCOTUS and other institutions thought the Fed would somehow still be off limits? There was an implicit bet or bargain? C’mon. You’ll be marks until your last day.

A few things in the org structure here stick out as strange to me. It’s beginning to seem like Zuck promised each of these major hires their own fiefdom, and they’re more likely to go to war than accomplish their goals.

One crank belief I have great fondness for is 10 years of jail time for endorsing development on national park land

Trump’s lasting legacy will be America’s transition to state capitalism, and embrace of authoritarian measures to safeguard it. We’ll have no push back from the normal free enterprise crew, as long as they’re promised a place on top of the plebs in hierarchy…until we have a new president.

Accidentally making ourselves into China because we were scared of becoming Denmark

Spoke with a patent lawyer on an unrelated topic and he told me: “I know it sounds crazy but I tell clients to never, under any circumstances, discuss the contents of a potential patent with an LLM”

Tbh I’m surprised that this is settling out with revisions from the *supplier’s* side.

oh god oh fuck

Beginning to get a little suspicious that we’re missing something on initial claims, broadly speaking.

Watching Yellowstone for the first time and I think it’s perhaps the greatest show ever made with atrocious politics. Can’t think of another one in its class.

IDXX move today is a reminder that stocks are options

Featured in the final edition of the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability: Evolving Disability Reporting Patterns and Employment Dynamics During COVID-19 https://www.nber.org/brd/20251/evolving-disability-reporting-patterns-and-employment-dynamics-during-covid-19

Potentially a once in a lifetime period where markets are being made significantly less efficient on average

Perhaps the most depressing way of experiencing media that I’ve ever heard, but also, having a hard time remembering the last time a series was truly “worth it.”

gonna have to do it

Elon’s been quite clearly signaling an attempt to return to legitimacy, and this is so obviously part of it that I cannot enjoy it at all. If anything, it makes me hate him more.

I’m taking the other side of this. He’ll forget this happened by Friday.

Weird Bluesky debate today where both positions are verifiably, hilariously false. ❌ Video games are expensive media ❌ Labor earns a material portion of incremental profit

VIX is too low

It’s over.

I was thinking about this Joe and Tracy anecdote from the supply chain crisis on gummy bears. Things are probably going to get really weird in a few weeks in unexpected ways:

bro I am so serious right now

I wonder if now that we have a unitary government figure imposing massive restrictions on trade, implicit price controls, investment mandates, and extreme corruption, people might seriously reconsider what it means to be a “threat to capitalism.”

Unfortunately I think I’m developing the most galaxy brained take of all time and it’s actually kinda bullis

My opinion is that we will drip positive tariff news all day from here, stocks will rise materially, and everyone will celebrate for 2-3 weeks. Forgetting that even the “upside” scenario will be crushing.

I think it’s very likely that we’ll remember this moment with a greater shock and collective memory than COVID.

It’s getting really, really bad

Love to be an agentic AI solution that says “you must adopt this exact data architecture” to work. Oh also we’re super expensive

I have never seen a bigger gap between end customers and suppliers visions of the future than LLMs/AI.

Capitalism wasn’t quite working as well as it used to and we got kinda bored

It took a while for people to see the GFC as a “before/after” event, and it’s disappointing so many people can’t see that this year is one of those.