it’s the perfect time to assess the state of the awards race with critics groups rolling in, Golden Globes, and CCA noms we review the trends we are seeing so far, and assess early data in the Oscars Model with @curtissonfilm.bsky.social listen👇🏼👇🏼 therollingtape.com/the-awards-tap…

This was such a blast! Thank you @dannyjarabek.bsky.social & @therollingtape.bsky.social for having me on the podcast for the first time! We had a great conversation- a perfect dissection of the Oscars race across the board (with plenty of insight from the #OscarsModel). Give it a listen!

*FULLY UPDATED* #OscarsModel following results from LAFCA, HCA, and Golden Globe nominations- there's LOTS to catch up on! As every Monday, we also have fully updated graphs over time, showing you how the races have been changing. Check it out! t.co/rozpdQHxp6

Big next 26 hours! We’ve got LAFCA announcing throughout the day, The Astra awards tonight, and Golden Globe nominations announced tomorrow morning- all going into the #OscarsModel. Considering that, I’m going to wait to update the Model until tomorrow morning! See you then 👀

We are SO proud to present our 🏆*LIVE 2025 Oscar Nominations Model!*🏆 In our second year of the #OscarsModel, we have you covered this season for all the math leading up to Oscar Nominations. Updated as data comes in, bookmark, share, visit often!🧡 t.co/rozpdQHxp6

tomorrow 👀

I feel like a lot of folks here could benefit from thinking the way our #OscarsModel does about precursors: In a season there are x total number of "points on the board," and any given precursor is worth more/less than others. It's a race that only goes up; not appearing/winning ≠ doom

new niche @letterboxd.social list dropped, lmk if i missed any

Huge batch of data as the #OscarsModel prepares for its LIVE launch this week- many of these winners today find themselves atop the odds in their categories thanks to it! NYFCC is always a fun day, with very worthy and interesting winners. A truly great slate!

While not currently included in the #OscarsModel, there’s still lots to learn from the Gotham winners! A great kick off to the season with an excellent slate of winners. Here’s a quick thread of all the top-line stats category-by-category: 🧵

Feels like a good moment before precursors really start rolling in to plant my flag here- I’ve never *not* had The Seed of the Sacred Fig in my Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay predictions, and I have it also in Director and International Feature. Let it be known!

Best first watches of November 2024: -Anora (2024) -A Real Pain (2024) -Casablanca (1942) -The Piano Lesson (2024) Lots of current-season catching up this month, and some excellent rewatches. Onto December already!

Gladiator II was just fine, though its screenplay makes stubbornly poor decisions. Mescal's Lucius is stiff and not as charismatic as it requires. Pretty good to look at & immersion in Rome is still fun, but Denzel and production design can't make this float. t.co/MiiRPnZjRV

With the holiday weekend coming, I've finalized my new personal Oscar nomination predictions going into November. *Everything* has now been seen (obviously not by me)! Wicked skyrockets, I take a swing on Conclave, and many races are full of uncertainty. t.co/9i6BJEJKXo

#nw glad-two-ator

Who wants some updated #OscarsModel results after the HCA nominations? We are finally up to 4 categories that have had two or more batches of multi-awardees, so these give us some insight- Cinematography, Score, Song, and Documentary Feature.

HCAs give us our season’s full slate of above-the-line nominees! The categories most predictive of Oscar nominations in the #OscarsModel are Animated Feature (almost 80%!), Lead Actor, and both Screenplay categories (~70%). Important gets for Challengers, The Substance, & more that needed it!

Sad to see this one already losing steam this awards season- it's quite good! I found it to be a fascinating rumination on legacy and trauma, and was impressed by Washington's debut direction and adaptation. Both Deadwyler and JDW impressed me! Solid. boxd.it/7TND7p

While only overlapping with the Oscars 18% of the time for nominees in total, Camerimage can be an early sign of strength for a dark horse contender, and “The Girl with the Needle” fits the bill! It goes into the #OscarsModel, and it’s one to keep your eye on.

The #OscarsModel remembers LA LLORONA... Believe it or not, La Llorona was actually *the most likely film to be nominated for International Feature in 2021,* according to the math- ahead of Another Round! It's the biggest statistical snub in the category as far back as the Model's database goes.

dragged my feet too long on going to see Conclave and now it's not playing anywhere near me because of Glicked

With the announcement of Oscar-eligible Documentary Features, the #OscarsModel undergoes a slight shift. None of the leading ones lose their spot; all of the odds increase slightly in a smaller field.

2025 Oscars: Eligibility Lists for Animated Feature, Documentary Feature and International Feature Film for the 97th Academy Awards The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences today announced feature films eligible for consideration in the Animated Feature Film, Documentary Feature Film and…

An updated look at Best Documentary Feature according to the #OscarsModel, following IDA mostly. Model still favoring non-English docs; Dahomey and No Other Land tied at the top!

Diane Warren's song from The Six Triple Eight makes a large jump in the #OscarsModel for Best Original Song after winning the main category at HMMAs last night. Emilia Perez's two songs stay strong, followed by other HMMA winners The Wild Robot and The Goat Life cracking top 5.

Updated #OscarsModel results in Best Original Score, after HMMA awards last night! With the win, Emilia Perez moves into top position, with other winner The Wild Robot joining the top 5. The Room Next Door and Dune: Part Two each make a small jump.

Strong showings for The Six Triple Eight (Warren), Emilia Perez, and The Wild Robot give them a boost in the #OscarsModel in Score and Song! The main Song category aligns w/ Oscar winners 36% since the first in 2015, and Sci-fi/Fantasy tracks even better than main Feature in Score (only 30%).

Quite deeply touched by Eisenberg's creation. It's sentimental, contemplative, but also extremely front-facing and frank. Culkin is the deserved star, but Eisenberg is at his best in a long time. Both earnest and jaded, impressively styled throughout; I loved A REAL PAIN. boxd.it/7R7YdB

Another relatively strong data point in the #OscarsModel for Doc Feature! Nominees here align 37% with the Oscars since 2011- only crossed over 1 nominee last year. Winning IDA is a big boost in our Model, but it’s very possible to win the Oscar without an IDA nom- 6 have done it since 2011.

Exact same reaction here, though the ladies in the two acting nominations should be switched. Also, hot take (?), but I thought the contemporary costume design was very worthy of attention!

dammit, ruined my accidental streak of movies named after female titular characters

What are some other recent examples of films like A Complete Unknown, where they are singularly the very last contender to be seen in an awards season? I feel like I remember West Side Story being that way in 2021, but can’t recollect other years.

“Twisters” was a major disappointment, unfortunately. Chung’s direction was not as felt as I was hoping, and Kosinski’s writing was just poor and laughable at many times. Not even as technically adept as I was hoping. Really wanted to like this! boxd.it/7PB0QZ

just to update: we’ve gotten a LOT of requests from people wanting to be added to this, but…they cap it at 150 and this one is full. but! we hope to start up a second one this weekend so we can add more film writing/film loving folks to your life—so if you’d like to be added that one let us know!

First time sharing here! It's time for the official 🌟2025 #OscarsModel Preview!🌟 Read below about all the ways Mitchell and I have been working to improve the Model for the year ahead. Get excited! 🏆✏️ t.co/Qq4HbttZ9u

Even beyond The Discourse, Emilia Perez is simply not an effective film. It asks a lot of complicated questions of its audience while pretty forwardly refusing to engage with them itself, and Audiard's writing and direction make the performances fall flat. Shockingly ambivalent! boxd.it/7OzrTt

Conan O’Brien will host the 97th Oscars. The ceremony will take place March 2, 2025.

i have now seen and have Opinions™ about Emilia Perez

The CEH noms are a moderately good precursor in our #OscarsModel for Doc Feature- this group (which nominated 3 Oscar nominees last year) aligns with the Oscars about 45% since 2011 in their main category. Last Oscar winner to not appear there or in the Audience award was Icarus, in 2017!

how it feels today

Anora is a blast. Baker's screenplay is just delicious, elevated by each and every one of the actors here; Madison is a revelation, but Karagulian steals it for me. Expertly shot and edited, Baker is steadily and confidently behind the wheel of a film going 100. boxd.it/7NEvmp

The Critical Acclaim Of #TheWildRobot vs. The Box Office Power Of #InsideOut2 - Daniel Howat asks, "Which Film Will Win The Oscar For #BestAnimatedFeature?" #Oscars #FYC #Animation #AMPAS #AcademyAwards #AwardsSeason #Movies #Film #Cinema #FilmBsky nextbestpicture.com/the-critical...

I wonder if the "Now that Trump won, The Apprentice is dead this awards season" narrative is a bit reductive/overstated. Fatigue is real, but if the film is about him being/becoming a Bad Guy (it is, right? Haven't seen it), then I could see that being a good angle for the studio to run.

First #OscarsModel results of the new season! These are *extremely preliminary,* and shared out of resounding interest and desire for transparency/accountability throughout the process. Here’s early looks at Score, Song, and Documentary. (1/3)

hi everyone! filmsky starter pack hit max capacity, so I've created a part two so you are still able to request to join!! new requests will be going into the new starter pack. you can request to join by REPOSTING this post, as well as the old one. go.bsky.app/AAHrzkL

Hesitantly here, so I’ll re-introduce myself! Last year my brother and I ran an inaugural season of our #OscarsModel, which- to our knowledge- was the single most accurate model out there for predicting both the Oscar noms AND wins! Follow along for the stats behind the Oscars! 🏆 t.co/HX9YafwIL5