On today's episode of @heatmap.news Shift Key, Hannah Hess w Rhodium talks about new data, which shows the clean electricity sector in the US is accelerating, while at the same time clean manufacturing and the EV supply chain in particular are experiencing turbulence. heatmap.news/podcast/shif...

We’re often asked: Why are Chinese EVs so cheap? Comparing costs between Western and Chinese automakers in China shows that subsidies matter, but they’re only part of the story:

New: In Q4 2025, clean investment in the US totaled $60 billion, a 23% decline from Q3. For the first time in our tracking, investment in Q4 was lower (11%) than the same period in the previous year, Q4 2024.

In the latest episode of the @gmfus.bsky.social China Global Podcast, Logan Wright and Charlie Vest explain the main takeaways of their latest paper on the economic escalation dilemma China faces around use of force against Taiwan.

"Rhodium Group modeling projects that without big EPA rules underpinned by the finding, U.S. emissions in 2035 would be 26-35% below 2005 levels. If the rules were intact? A steeper decline of 32-44%." www.axios.com/2026/02/12/t...

Excitement about nuclear energy in the US is soaring amid increasing energy demand, data center buildout, and bipartisan support. In a recent note, we discuss why now may be the best time in decades for new nuclear energy and what needs to happen for it to really take off rhg.com/research/nuc...

Over the past year, German political leaders, central bankers, business associations, and unions have begun talking openly about the risks of a “China shock.” The rhetoric, however, has not been matched by decisive policy action. Read our latest:

The momentum of Chinese outbound FDI dropped in Q4 2025, with only $19.2 billion in newly announced transactions. Greenfield investment led the slowdown, with only a single new billion-dollar project announced.

Last year, Chinese companies announced $124 billion worth of new FDI transactions, an 18% increase from the year before. Completed investments also grew 14% to $72 billion. What are the big takeaways from the 2025 data?

In the last quarter of 2025, investment in US clean tech manufacturing fell to $9bn, a 29% drop from Q4 2024. Roughly $8bn of investments were cancelled, setting a record as the highest quarterly value of cancellations in our Clean Investment Monitor database. climatedeck.rhg.com/clean-invest...

The combined effect of weak Chinese export prices and a weak RMB compared to the euro has contributed to a fast increase in import volumes from China, at the expense of local producers that cannot compete on price.

"Roughly $8 billion in clean manufacturing investments were terminated in Q4 2025, the highest-ever quarterly amount of cancellations. Overall, investments in the sector dropped 29% in comparison to the same period in 2024." subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eene...

China is reportedly likely to set its official economic growth target for 2026 between 4.5% and 5%. While it makes sense to project lower growth, even 4.5% is still overstating the likely trajectory. A more realistic expectation is that the economy will grow somewhere between 1% and 2.5%.

Using data from the China Cross-Border Monitor, @wired.com has tracked Chinese companies' investments in battery plants across the world:

NEW SHIFT KEY Why America’s Climate Emissions Surged in 2025 In an ominous sign, US GHG pollution grew faster than GDP last year. I spoke to @rhg.com’s Ben King about why, and what it says about the US economy — and whether Trump or AI is more to blame. Listen: shows.acast.com/65bac3af0334...

In 2025, a 2.4% increase in total electricity use & a 13% increase in coal generation pushed US power sector emissions up by 3.8%. This marks only the 2nd year in the last decade that coal generation has increased, driven by higher natural gas prices. The pace of coal plant retirements also slowed.

"The increase in planet-warming emissions came after two years of decline as demand for electricity has been surging... 'The main story here was partly weather and partly a growing power sector that’s burning more coal,' said Michael Gaffney of Rhodium Group." www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/c...

New: We estimate that in 2025, US greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.4%, marking a change from the prior two years of decreases in emissions. Emissions also grew faster than the economy in 2025, reversing the decoupling of emissions and economic activity of the prior two years.

Can China's "new" strategic industries provide enough growth to the economy to make up for the fall of traditional drivers like property and infrastructure investment? Judging by the National Bureau of Statistics' recently released input-output tables, no.

In the latest report from @gmfus.bsky.social, Rhodium Group's Charlie Vest and Logan Wright assess the implications for China's economy if it were to use force against Taiwan:

Direct Chinese exports to the US have declined sharply—by 20-30% y/y every month since April—but exports to all other regions are increasing, especially in Africa, the European Union, and ASEAN.

While the extent of the decline in investment was the key uncertainty for 2025, the most important variable influencing China's real economic growth rate in 2026 will be its export performance. Read our latest:

We estimate that China’s real GDP grew between 2.5% and 3.0% in 2025, about half of the 5.2% the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported through Q3. As in past years, the largest divergence between official numbers and ours was in investment estimates. Read the note: rhg.com/research/chi...

How much did China's economy actually grow in 2025? Most likely around 2.5-3.0%. In our latest note, we recap China's growth story this year and look ahead to what 2026 may hold:

As China manages its currency against the dollar, the yuan has depreciated against the euro. This has led to greater Chinese exports to Europe, a weakening of the EU's trade defense tools, and more pressure on European industry.

With European automakers under increasing pressure, the European Commission is considering new tools to restrict market access, safeguard jobs, and buy time for domestic producers, especially via local content requirements.

We're hiring! We're recruiting a Research Analyst to join our climate impacts projects team. This position supports the team’s work on understanding and communicating the impacts and costs of climate change, also joining Rhodium's collaboration with the Climate Impact Lab. rhg.com/job-opportun...

Excitement about nuclear energy in the US is soaring amid increasing energy demand, data center buildout, and bipartisan support. In a new note, we discuss why now may be the best time in decades for new nuclear energy and what needs to happen for it to really take off rhg.com/research/nuc...

In our new preliminary estimates for global emissions and energy use in 2024, we find that global coal and oil use increased by about 1%, while natural gas consumption rose 3% and renewable energy use increased by nearly 13%.

Chinese auto investment in Europe is slowing, as producers find exports more attractive than investing in high-cost European production. Some Chinese firms are instead turning to the EU’s neighborhood as an alternative base.

Each year, we provide updated estimates of global and national GHG emissions, enabling consistent tracking of trends across countries and over time. In our new update, we find that global emissions reached a historical high in 2024, increasing 0.9% from 2023.

In their latest op-ed, Rhodium Group's Agatha Kratz and Noah Barkin lay out why the longer Europe waits to address dependencies on China, the more difficult and costly the challenge becomes.

China’s mode of finance mixes concessional and commercial motives, and new financial flows are slowing as lenders look to control risk. The result has been that China is collecting more in debt service payments than it is disbursing in new loan finance.

As the continent's automakers face increasing pressure from Chinese OEMs, policymakers in Brussels are considering new tools to safeguard Europe's carmakers. Local content requirements are emerging as a favored option. Will they work?

From the start of 2018 through Q3 of 2025, companies have cancelled $17 billion worth of US industrial decarbonization projects, exceeding the $15 billion invested over the same period for 57 projects that have begun operating in the US.

In Q3, US clean investment totaled $75 billion, a record quarterly high according to new data from the Clean Investment Monitor. This was largely driven by a surge in electric vehicle sales, which reached $31 billion and a 32% increase from the previous quarter.

In our latest report with the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social GeoEconomics Center, we unpack what China's economic slowdown means for African economies. Read the full report:

We're hiring! We're recruiting a Research Assistant to join our international energy & climate team. The location is flexible, but Oakland, CA is preferred. rhg.com/job-opportun...

Join us at the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social next Tuesday afternoon as we release a new report on how China's economic slowdown will impact countries across Africa and their relationships with Beijing. Register here:

Thanks to policy and technological innovation, we anticipate steep declines in global emissions from the power sector—peaking in the coming decade and falling by 35-73% by 2050 from today's levels.

As COP30 kicks off, our newly updated Rhodium Climate Outlook shows that while the world has likely avoided the most catastrophic projections, global temperature rise is on track to exceed 2°C. We project a likely range of 2.3–3.4°C and an average outcome of 2.8°C by the end of the century.

Chinese companies have invested millions of dollars in projects across the EV sector in Southeast Asia. Indonesia in particular has seen significant upstream investment. See the data for yourself in our latest dashboard: cbm.rhg.com/dashboard/ch...

Thanks to policy and technological innovation, we anticipate steep declines in global emissions from the power sector—peaking in the coming decade and falling by 35-73% by 2050 from today's levels.

In our new 2025 edition of the Rhodium Climate Outlook, if current trends in policy and technology development continue, we project a likely (67% confidence) range of 2.3–3.4°C of temperature rise and an avg outcome of 2.8°C by 2100. The probability of limiting warming below 2°C remains below 5%.

Amid global anxiety about China weaponizing critical mineral supply chains, Chinese investment in basic materials reached a new high in Q3, especially in raw material inputs for the clean energy value chain. Read more in our breakdown of China's Q3 outbound FDI:

Interested in seeing more of the data in Rest of World's latest piece on the EV supply chain? You can explore the whole dataset for free on the China Cross-Border Monitor:

"EV-related investments tumbled by almost a third to $8.1bn in the three months to Sept compared with a year earlier, according to the US Clean Investment Monitor, a database by Rhodium Group & MIT. Between April & Sept, about $7bn of planned EV investments were ditched." www.ft.com/content/bc4e...

In our annual Taking Stock outlook for US energy and emissions under current policy, we find the US is now on track to reduce emissions by 26-41% below 2005 levels in 2035, a meaningful shift from our outlook in 2024, which showed a steeper decline of 38-56%. rhg.com/research/tak...

Back in March, we wrote about how the US was on an unspoken mission to claw back strategic assets from China. As we anticipated, Beijing is now aware of the playbook and is responding where it has leverage, including with rare earths:

The China market used to be a cash cow for foreign carmakers, but times have changed, and now many OEMs find their operations there dragging down profits. How they respond will shape the future of global supply chains. Read more: