As COP30 kicks off, our newly updated Rhodium Climate Outlook shows that while the world has likely avoided the most catastrophic projections, global temperature rise is on track to exceed 2°C. We project a likely range of 2.3–3.4°C and an average outcome of 2.8°C by the end of the century.

Chinese companies have invested millions of dollars in projects across the EV sector in Southeast Asia. Indonesia in particular has seen significant upstream investment. See the data for yourself in our latest dashboard: cbm.rhg.com/dashboard/ch...

Thanks to policy and technological innovation, we anticipate steep declines in global emissions from the power sector—peaking in the coming decade and falling by 35-73% by 2050 from today's levels.

In our new 2025 edition of the Rhodium Climate Outlook, if current trends in policy and technology development continue, we project a likely (67% confidence) range of 2.3–3.4°C of temperature rise and an avg outcome of 2.8°C by 2100. The probability of limiting warming below 2°C remains below 5%.

Amid global anxiety about China weaponizing critical mineral supply chains, Chinese investment in basic materials reached a new high in Q3, especially in raw material inputs for the clean energy value chain. Read more in our breakdown of China's Q3 outbound FDI:

Interested in seeing more of the data in Rest of World's latest piece on the EV supply chain? You can explore the whole dataset for free on the China Cross-Border Monitor:

"EV-related investments tumbled by almost a third to $8.1bn in the three months to Sept compared with a year earlier, according to the US Clean Investment Monitor, a database by Rhodium Group & MIT. Between April & Sept, about $7bn of planned EV investments were ditched." www.ft.com/content/bc4e...

In our annual Taking Stock outlook for US energy and emissions under current policy, we find the US is now on track to reduce emissions by 26-41% below 2005 levels in 2035, a meaningful shift from our outlook in 2024, which showed a steeper decline of 38-56%. rhg.com/research/tak...

Back in March, we wrote about how the US was on an unspoken mission to claw back strategic assets from China. As we anticipated, Beijing is now aware of the playbook and is responding where it has leverage, including with rare earths:

The China market used to be a cash cow for foreign carmakers, but times have changed, and now many OEMs find their operations there dragging down profits. How they respond will shape the future of global supply chains. Read more:

Businesses are trying to assess where tariff rates are settling and how they will affect global supply chains. We built a tariff tool estimating the trade-weighted average US tariff rate by country, taking into account all tariff measures and exemptions as of mid-September.

The last time the US imposed sweeping global tariffs, manufacturing supply chains adapted to soften the blow. The current tariff shock is stronger than in 2018, yet uncertainty is also much higher. So what will current tariffs do to supply chains?

Our latest tracker shows China's investments across the EV supply chain, broken down by segment. See where Chinese companies are investing, from upstream mining operations to final vehicle assembly: cbm.rhg.com/dashboard/ch...

In a new dashboard, we track China's investments in the EV supply chain across the world, broken down by segment. See where Chinese companies are investing, from upstream mining operations to final vehicle assembly:

China operations were once a cash cow for foreign carmakers, but over the last few years that's all changed. We explore how different automakers are approaching the China market now and the implications it has for supply chains and policy debates.

🎙️ New podcast out now! 👉 open.spotify.com/episode/6CFC... 🇨🇳 @staskaleta.bsky.social is joined by @noahbarkin.bsky.social (@rhg.com @gmfus.bsky.social) to discuss the EU's strategy for China – after Trump's NATO ultimatum demanding China tariffs, and Wang Yi's visit to Poland.

We find the US is on track to reduce GHG emissions by 26-41% in 2040 relative to 2005 levels. On the way to 2040, we estimate GHG emissions levels will decline 26-35% in 2035. Read more in our annual Taking Stock report:

Since 2023, China's consumption growth has remained anemic, credit growth has slowed, and the economy has been struggling with persistent deflationary pressures in both producer and consumer prices. But still, Beijing insists that growth is humming along at 5%. Why?

We find the US is on track to reduce GHG emissions by 26-41% in 2040 relative to 2005 levels. On the way to 2040, we estimate GHG emissions levels will decline 26-35% in 2035. Read our full analysis in our annual Taking Stock report: rhg.com/research/tak...

China’s highly publicized auto subsidies may be contributing to price wars and entrenching “involutionary competition” within the industry. We explain why:

In the second quarter of 2025, clean energy and transportation investment in the United States totaled $68 billion, a 0.3% decrease from the previous quarter, but a 1% increase from the same period in 2024. Read the latest from the Clean Investment Monitor: rhg.com/research/cle...

Our data shows clearly that Chinese companies face greater challenges investing abroad than at home. Overseas projects tend to be more expensive, take longer to build, and encounter higher regulatory and political risks. Read more: cbm.rhg.com/research-not...

Chinese firms have adopted markedly different internationalization strategies through FDI. Battery makers Envision, Gotion, and EVE stand out, each allocating more than 30% of their investment abroad, with Envision reaching almost 60%. Read more: cbm.rhg.com/research-not...

After years of directing around 80% of investment to the domestic market, last year Chinese firms announced more investment overseas than at home for the first time. Read more in our latest note: cbm.rhg.com/research-not...

In 2024, China's EV firms invested more abroad than at home, a historic shift after years of directing around 80% of investment to the domestic market. Read more in our latest note comparing China's EV investments at home versus abroad:

China's auto subsidies will be very costly in 2025, estimated at 3% of total central government fiscal revenue and equivalent to 7% of auto retail sales. We expect auto subsidies to extend at least into 2026 to avoid a sharp decline in sales. Read our latest note:

China's automakers are struggling to be profitable as they fight over market share in low-cost vehicles. And auto subsidies are making it worse. Read how fixed car subsidies are fueling a race to the bottom for China's auto industry in our latest note:

Rhodium Group is excited to welcome Oliver Melton as a Director in our growing China practice! Oliver brings a wealth of experience as a diplomat and highly respected US government China expert to augment our research and oversee an expanding DC office.

In Q2 of this year, there is still little evidence that elevated trade barriers have triggered significant shifts in manufacturing outbound investment from Chinese companies. Read more in our latest note:

In Q2, Chinese outbound FDI totaled an estimated $27.1 billion. Combined with elevated investment in Q1, the first half of 2025 was the strongest for Chinese FDI since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Read our latest note:

The Trump administration’s decision to let NVIDIA sell its H20 chips to China is a sharp break from Biden-era controls, but its vision of keeping China hooked on US AI tech doesn't comport with Beijing's self-reliance push.

Twenty years ago, China broke its de facto peg of 8.276 RMB to the US dollar and started a process of reforming its exchange rate regime. We review what has and hasn't changed over the last two decades:

The Trump administration’s decision to let NVIDIA sell its H20 chips to China is a sharp break from Biden-era controls, but its vision of keeping China hooked on US AI tech doesn't comport with Beijing's self-reliance push.

Each quarter, we release a new batch of data on China's completed FDI transactions across the world through the China Cross-Border Monitor. You can sign up for free email alerts when new data is available here:

While balancing IP protection and sharing specialized knowledge with equitable technology transfer is essential, enabling policy and supportive infrastructure will likely be more critical factors in scaling up the direct air capture industry in the US and abroad.

In our latest note, we compare direct air capture to two previous energy innovations (hydraulic fracturing and solar photovoltaics) to assess how important IP protections are in the global dissemination of the technology. rhg.com/research/int...

We estimate the fiscal year 2025 budget reconciliation legislation will increase national average household energy bills by $78-192 and increase total industrial energy expenditures by $7-11 billion in 2035. Read our full analysis:

In this first edition of the new Global Clean Investment Monitor, we explore how—after decades of national policy support, primarily in the US, China, and Europe—electric vehicles and batteries have been catapulted into mass commercialization.

“This creates a risk that energy projects just won’t get built, says Ben King of Rhodium Group. "At the same time, China is adding staggering electricity capacity.” www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...

The Senate’s version of the budget reconciliation bill largely maintains cuts to energy-related tax credits and other climate and clean energy programs. We summarize these provisions and provide a preliminary analysis of the impacts. rhg.com/research/sen...

"The U.S. has laid the groundwork for a 'renaissance in battery manufacturing,' said Hannah Pitt with Rhodium Group, but the changes being debated in Congress would be a 'double whammy' for the battery market, hitting both the supply and demand side." www.ciphernews.com/articles/u-s...

The Senate’s version of the budget reconciliation bill largely maintains cuts to energy-related tax credits and other climate and clean energy programs. We summarize these provisions and provide a preliminary analysis of the impacts. rhg.com/research/sen...

We estimate China's total electric vehicle fleet is already displacing over 1 million barrels per day in implied oil demand—equivalent to roughly the daily oil production of Oman. That level is likely to rise by around 600,000 barrels per day over the next 12 months.

Our latest note looks at the ongoing electrification of China's vehicle fleet—especially in trucking—and estimate what it means for oil demand. China's EVs are already displacing an estimated 1 million barrels of oil demand per day, and that will grow.

Concerns are mounting in Brussels that existing tools may be insufficient to address the spillovers from China’s deep domestic imbalances and policies designed to capture global market share. So what policy options are available to the EU?

The repeal of federal subsidies alone could cause wind and solar installations to plummet by as much as 72% over the next decade, according to Rhodium Group. The new tax could depress deployment even further by raising costs an additional 10-20%. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/29/c...

Europe is the world’s 2nd-largest EV market, and current and planned policies put it on track to achieve 100% EVs in the coming decades. But domestic planned EV production capacity may fall short of rapidly growing demand. Our latest report digs into global EV dynamics: rhg.com/research/glo...

To answer whether MIC25 was successful, we measure outcomes across four of the plan's main categories: China’s import dependency, dependency on foreign companies, global competitiveness, and technological leadership.

In the first quarter of the year, Chinese outbound FDI along the auto supply chain slowed, despite a $1 billion EV battery plant investment by Sundowa in Thailand. Read more:

While China, Europe, and the US dominate EV markets today, sales in the rest of the world are rising rapidly, as are investments in domestic EV & battery manufacturing. Our latest report explores how these countries might seek their place in the global EV supply chain. rhg.com/research/glo...