Some jobs day news: Today is my last day at Indeed. After an incredible six-plus years, I'm saying farewell and heading to my next challenge. I'm excited to announce I'm joining the Mastercard Economics Institute! Fired up to hit the ground running.

Very excited and honored to see Hiring Lab data and research on remote work cited in this year’s Economic Report of the President. www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-...

Final jobs report of 2024 was a good one! - Job gains beat expectations, up +256,000 - Unemployment is down to 4.1%, but more importantly, it seems to be stable over the last 6 months. - Prime-age EPOP still concerning and looking dangerously close to reversing its multi-year increasing trend.

Pretty solid JOLTS report today! - Job openings posted their first back-to-back gain since March 2022. - Layoffs remain historically low - 3-month averages starting to show (possible) early signs of stabilization #jolts #bls #econsky

It’s JOLTS day! I’m gonna be quiet on this front today so follow @corystahle.bsky.social for all the good insights!

Oh whoa, it’s Jobs Day

Happy Thanksgiving! Wishing the best for you and yours!

Toddler, knocking down a block tower: one must imagine Sissyfus happy

are you kids out of school: Retweet for 'All Week' Like for 'part of the week'

Walking around Costco contemplating the domestic content share of each item

Labor markets have frictions, and pushing against them can be unpleasant!

Posting has been quiet thanks to life with a 6-week-old, but once things settle down, I’ll be making the move over here.

I wouldn't get too concerned about GenAI taking your job. New Hiring Lab research evaluated over 2,800 skills and found zero (yes, ZERO) of them are "very likely" to be replaced by a Large Language Model. www.hiringlab.org/2024/09/25/a...

A question for those who've followed the Fed more closely and for longer than I: When was the last time a Fed governor, who wasn't the chair or vice chair, received as much attention as Chris Waller?

💸 Employers have been retreating from promoting signing bonuses but haven't abandoned them yet. The share of job postings advertising signing bonuses remains more than twice its pre-pandemic level.

🎢 Advertised wages for food prep jobs have been on a roller coaster for the past five years, but they look to be settling down now. 🧊 Dropped to 0.3% by June 2020 🚀 Rocketed up to 15.4% in Jan 2022 ➡️ Now at 2.6% as of Aug 2024

A question for the Fed chair: if the committee doesn't welcome further softening in the labor market, why is U3 projected to rise more this year? Is the rise in unemployment already baked in?

I asked the toddlers if they thought it'd be a quarter point or a half point, and one instantly shouted, "HALF POINT." So, size your positions according, I guess?

After returning to its pre-pandemic pace, posted wage growth is creeping back up. According to the latest data from the Indeed Wage Tracker, wages and salaries advertised in job postings grew at a 3.3% rate in August.

*taps the mic* this thing still on?

Goldman Sachs: "JOLTS job openings have been revised by an average of 180k in their second reading over the last couple of years, double what was typical four years ago and more than triple what was typical six years ago."

Looks like the UAW strike is over. Big wage gains are in store, but the 4-day workweek didn't make it in. We looked at the share of job postings that advertise this work schedule. Unsurprisingly, it's uncommon, but notably, Production & Manufacturing is the sector with the 4th highest share.

I need a new synonym for resilient. Job postings are still holding strong. The Indeed Job Postings Index is down 1% since June 16th. Much of that strength is concentrated in sectors least likely to offer remote work (i.e., in-person jobs). They are UP 3% since mid-June.

Visited the true bastion of price stability

Job postings remain resilient. Through October 13, job postings on Indeed are still up 27% from their pre-pandemic level. Postings are down 14.7% year-to-date, but most of that decline happened during the first half of the year. They are down only 0.9% since June 16th. #NumbersDay

We got more indication that wage growth is slowing. The Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker ticked down to 5.2% in September. Job switchers' growth moved sideways, but gains for job stayers ticked down to its slowest pace since Feb 2022.

Wage growth continues to slow down, according to new data from the Indeed Wage Tracker. Year-over-year posted wage growth is running at a 3-month average of 4.3% as of September. It has now retracted more than 80% of its surge from its pre-pandemic pace.

In a pleasant turn of fate, we *are* getting JOLTS data for August tomorrow morning. According to BLS, there were 8.83 million job openings at the end of July. If openings grew at the same rate as job postings on Indeed, there were 8.79 million openings at the end of August.

The holiday season is a couple months away, but we're already seeing indications that seasonal hiring will be less intense this year than during the past few years. Get the full download from Allison Shrivastava hiringlab.org/2023/10/02/s...

Nice Terms of Trade shock for FL 🤘

The Switch in Time that Saved Jobs Day

This morning BLS reported there were 9.8 million job openings on the last business day of May. Since then, the Indeed Job Postings Index has fallen by 2.8%. If job openings grew at the same rate as postings over that period, there were 9.5 million job openings on June 30th

The crux of a debate last year about the possibility of a 'soft landing' was whether or not job openings could rapidly decline without a resulting spike in job loss. As of May 2023, job openings have declined 18% from their March 2022 peak. And yet . . .

JOLTS graphs will be posted here, but no promises on timing!

For all the hubbub about JOLTS survey response rates, JOLTS has actually staged a pretty significant comeback since mid-2022. Still worse than the pre-Covid era, but back to 75.2% as of April 2023.

The latest data from the Indeed Job Postings Index shows online job postings continuing to moderate. Postings are down 17.4% from a year prior as of June 30, 2023. Yet the JPI is up 27% from its pre-pandemic baseline level.

Let’s create a new equilibrium, folks!

I was totally popular at my old school!

Looks like I’ll be using the account much more now!

Almost time to argue about the Beveridge Curve on the internet 🤗

I stand by this take

“Check out my skeets,” I say as I hand my phone to my wife

Damned if I know when inflation moderates, but the labor market is doing its part for the soft landing.

Hell yah

Did I miss any good bluesky Jobs Day takes?

Was just pocket Zoomed for the first time. Sort of surprised it took this long?

I couldn’t legally drink the last time the Fed Funds Rate was this high