Your fave women’s footie analytics gals (@cata-bush.bsky.social and myself, ofc) are at it again! Below is a VAEP inspired breakdown of the Women’s Euros group stages - read to see which players and teams have shown out or bombed (whoops, Netherlands 👀): open.substack.com/pub/beyondth...

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📊 GW31-33: Top Assistant Manager Projections: GW31: Brentford & West Ham lead (mean ~9.5) GW32: Palace and Newcastle top the chart (~13 & 12.5 resp.) GW33: Arsenal are clear (~15.5 points) Data: 100k sims based on @elevenify.com team ratings

Glasner vs Arteta: As with all of these charts, feel free to swap out Glasner with whichever flavour of table bonus manager you prefer. They're all near enough to each other that you can let your personal biases sway you!

📊 GW26: Stay at the Slot machine or gamble elsewhere? 250k simulations show the distribution of expected gain by making the switch from Slot to this week's top managers available for each risk profile. Based on team ratings by @elevenify.com

📊 GW26 Projections: Pick your Poisson Left: Team ratings from @elevenify.com Right: SpreadEx odds via @robtfpl.com (accessed 19/02) The key disagreement seems to be that Elevenify's model has lower expectations for Liverpool and Ipswich compared to current market odds

📊 AM25 Live: Following Villa's surprise draw vs IPS, Emery trails Slot by 4. However, that would change if they pull off an upset of their own against Liverpool. Fittingly a draw (22%) results in almost no difference in points, whereas a decisive result is, well, decisive. Data: @elevenify.com

📊 GW26: Arteta vs Glasner Similar means, vastly different distributions: Arteta is much more consistent: ~70% to score 8-12pts. Glasner has a much higher ceiling thanks to the table bonus potential - if you can stomach the 45% chance to score 2pts or fewer. Odds data via @robtfpl.com

Head-to-head: Slot vs Emery in GW25 📊 Slot favoured (~61%) to score more points than Emery, but there's still plenty of upside for Emery. He beats Slot by at least 15 points in more than 17% of sims. The expectation however, is that Slot wins by ~1.7 points. Based on 1M sims via @elevenify.com

Fantasy Frameworks 💡 A new resource for members. 23+ Frameworks. 6,000+ Words. This will make you a better #FPL manager. www.elevenify.com/p/fantasy-fr...

A full probability matrix for every outcome for Slot and Moyes' points after the Merseyside Derby 🔵🔴

GW25 Assistant Manager Points Potential 📊 No surprises that Liverpool lead in expected value. However, an interesting choice is presented to managers yet again: safer floor or higher ceiling? Based on 250k sims from @elevenify.com data

Looking a little further: Emery vs Slot over next two GWs 📈 250k sims project tight race: Slot (mean: 22.9) vs Emery (mean: 21.9) over GWs 25 & 26. Similar means but different paths, with the Villa manager showing a wider spread of potential outcomes.

DGW25 Locked: Emery vs Slot Head-to-Head 📊 2M simulations show Slot (mean: 17.4) edging Emery (15.8). Full probability heatmap included - I will update with a higher resolution view once outcomes constrict after each team's first match of the gameweek.

⚔️ Merseyside Derby Impact on the AM24 Points Gap A Liverpool win (~68%) puts Slot owners at least 5 points clear, however there's also plenty of points available for an Everton upset. Data: @elevenify.com

Update after each team's first game: Slot: 10 points, expectation: 17.90 Moyes: 12 points, expectation: 17.24 📈 Gap narrows but Slot maintains the edge heading into EVE vs LIV. Team ratings: @elevenify.com

📊 Slot vs Moyes - DGW24 Points Distribution 250k simulations reveal Moyes's higher ceiling but more volatility, while Slot shows a tighter points range. Risk vs reward in visual form. Data: @elevenify.com & me

AM24 vs AM25 Optimal Routes Analysis 📊 Comparing chip strategies based on DGW25 scenarios. Liverpool progress vs Spurs progress paths shown. Let me know if you have another route you would like to see analysed 👇 Data: Team ratings @elevenify.com; progression odds @robtfpl.com; simulations by me

GW 24 - 26 #FPL UPDATED Assistant Manager Chip Predicted Points 📊 Final updated AM predicted points. This considers all available information (as of post-announcements 31st Jan) and is the best current estimate of predicted points. Big thanks to @guymc.com for running simulations.

DGW25 Assistant Manager Points Projection 📊 Expected points for managers over next 3 GWs, assuming potential doubles for each team DGW25. Points include weighted probability of table bonus based on the likelihood that they are eligible at that time. Based on team ratings from @elevenify.com