Rotated every player they reasonably could, put up 3.3 xG / 3.1 xGOT, conceded on the only shot on target. I’m fine with either result here and the performance was good. However this falls, there’s very little to be upset about.

Martinelli is absolutely cooking. Arsenal up to 1.5 xG, need to get one in the net.

The NFL quietly gradually moving toward the large majority of teams having domes -- including in geographies that do not remotely need them -- is a bummer. Too much obsession by the suits with year-round use and getting big events. Too much obsession by the coaches with controllable conditions.

The comparative npxG in Forest-Spurs and Palace-City are basically identical, and both games are 3-0 in opposite directions

5 total shots in over an hour in Sunderland

Arsenal’s key issue today was Gyökeres, Martinelli, Eze all seem to need transition to be effective, and it was a bus-park game …but also the opponent is terrible and those guys shouldn’t need more favorable match conditions to beat them

Gotta figure out how to get Eze doing anything useful that’s not scoring a hat trick against Tottenham

Kinda feels like all the attackers on the bench are better fits for this match than all the ones playing. I bet we will see changes quickly.

Playing in a winning game state in Bruges with a clearly weaker opponent trying to play in transition is the archetypal Gyökeres use case… and he did nothing

The contrast in take-on ability between Madueke and Martinelli is comical. Martinelli has just lost it the last couple seasons, especially against a set defense.

Insane how much less cool (…and good) Isak is than last season

Prepare thyself for this to become a norm (even in freezing weather) with an ad break each time

Red Bull should have pit Verstappen in that window there where he still would have come out ahead of Piastri. It’s absolutely worth slightly decreasing race win odds to up the variance in the WDC race and ultimately increase WDC odds.

On both sides of the back 4, Arsenal are playing guys who could plausibly play CB or FB. I’d love to see them try out some fluid rotational stuff in possession (though unfortunately they have basically no time on the training pitch to game that out).

[Looking at Group A:] that’s a weak group [Looking at Group B:] that’s a weak group [Looking at Group C:] that’s a weak group [Looking at Group D:] that’s a weak group [Looking at Group E:] that’s a weak group [Looking at Group F:] that’s a weak group [Looking at Group G:] that’s a weak group

This second half is exactly the product of one of these teams playing twice a week for the first time in their careers with no depth and the other a bunch of guys being able to go full gas for all 90 minutes every game.

Is 2 shots for 0.07 xG in a half when you’ve been desperately chasing a goal the whole time at home against a bad team good?

Arsenal hath seized the European throne …with Merino once again playing striker and Ødegaard finally gracing the grass with his presence

Declan Rice is simply never going to not play an available minute for club or country

Quietly insane assist by Rice

Merino to Trossard, just like we all pictured in August

When Manchester City are in full swing in possession like tonight, I don’t even really know what you do about it. This is without Rodri!

Doku is just a good player now. He was “all spice no sizzle” for years, but it’s coming together.

People often refer to a team as “imbalanced” when it vaguely has better attackers than defenders, but this Real Madrid team is what imbalanced really is. They’re often so good it doesn’t really matter, but the positional layout of talent is far from optimal.

UEFA officials have just completely lost the plot on what the handball rule is meant to be. It’s absurd how strict these calls are.

I regret to formally declare the Packers do not have the juice

The Boring Team is Tottenham Hotspur also they are genuinely bad

Crystal Palace have been legitimately good this year, but I’d be shocked if they don’t collapse from exhaustion. It’s a ton of games to play the same 14 guys, none of whom have played twice a week before.

a new Expecting Goals newsletter! a brand new team ratings system, Premier League power rankings, and all the details about how it works, why it works this way, and what I plan to do with it next www.expectinggoals.com/p/expecting-...

Elo -- the almighty, inarguable measurement of team quality -- hath declared that current Arsenal are: 1. the best team in the world 2. the best Arsenal team since records began in the 1940s 3. the 10th-best team of all time clubelo.com

I regret to formally declare the Packers do not have the juice

Tottenham have broadly played better against a theoretically solid team, something I am not sure they can say any other time this season. People are gonna be mad about this game, which I think they’re ultimately correct on — Spurs have been bad this season — but not because of this game.

Great listen for all the soccer sickos out there

This is a window where RedZone should not be showing Tennessee-LV unless it’s a major play or both the other games are in timeout. My one complaint of RedZone is that they treat games too equally in relevance/interest.

It is remarkable the degree to which the combination of FIFA and Trump have made me resent the upcoming World Cup, which should be basically the most exciting sporting event of my lifetime. www.theguardian.com/football/202...

Fascinating one from @dkthomp.bsky.social. I am most struck by the degree to which *social* media has entropy'd itself into atomized, mindless scrolling of inessential content from strangers. www.derekthompson.org/p/why-everyt...

Excellent ChatGPT use case I've discovered: my personal sommelier I've done many versions of essentially uploading a wine menu and telling it what I plan to eat, with various thoughts around preferences, budget, etc., and it does an excellent job of talking through the different options.

God, It's Brutal Out Here: lindseyadler.substack.com/p/god-its-br...

Manchester City followed up a classic chokehold first half with this

Brentford need to hire a set piece coach

Is that good?

Chelsea are now down their top 6 CBs

I still think Arsenal’s defensive abilities are somehow underrated. They hardly give teams a sniff.

For Arsenal, that’s two straight 2-0 wins on 3-0.5 xG. Pretty good.

Gyökeres is converging to my initial expectation of “not going to be a star but will be a useful player, especially against weaker teams” I’m still counting down the days until Havertz is back, if even for rotation to give CBs a relentless 90 to deal with.

Tottenham have been getting positive buzz and are high up in the table, but they have really been dining out on a combination of an easy fixture list and some fortunate results. They are consistently playing even-or-worse against teams with decidedly less talent, including today.

The difference between Van de Ven getting that foul call and other players on both teams not in multiple earlier similar insistences is refs always give a soft whistle on CBs getting dispossessed. The downside risk of getting that wrong feels too significant, so they default to calling it a foul.

Unfortunately, Leeds’s players are largely bad, but I like them as a concept.

That is the best Gyökeres proof of concept we have seen thus far. Good run in behind, bulldozes two guys, gets a big chance off that ends up a goal.