Barack Obama's library opens today. A lot has changed since he came on the scene, but there is still a lot Dems can learn from Obama messagebox.substack.com/p/what-today...

Despite all of the focus on ads, podcasts, and messaging, elections are decided by the big forces that shape American life. Here are the four forces that will determine the midterms this fall messagebox.substack.com/p/the-four-f...

By endorsing Ken Paxton, Trump gave Democrats a massive gift. 2026 will be our best shot to win Texas in a generation. Here’s why www.messageboxnews.com/p/the-case-f...

Trump, his allies, and some credulous reporters are celebrating his big win over Thomas Massie (in a district Trump won by 35 points). They may have won this battle, but Trump and the GOP will likely pay a steep price for Trump's vengeance tour. Here's why: www.messageboxnews.com/p/everyone-t...

The brand new NYT poll points towards a shellacking for the Republicans, driven by Trump’s putrid political standing, an unpopular war with Iran, and anger about his economic policies. www.messageboxnews.com/p/the-new-ny...

Thank you so much. I am so excited about this project - a subscription service for people who work in communications and politics at any level. Get access to strategic guidance, polling analysis, messaging and communications guidance, and access to an incredible community of political pros.

Enjoyable quote from @danpfeiffer.bsky.social Nail. Head. open.substack.com/pub/messageb...

The Virginia Supreme Court's ruling is a gut punch. There is no sugarcoating it. But all is not lost; Democrats can still win the House and are at least slight favorites to do so. Here's why: www.messageboxnews.com/p/the-virgin...

@danpfeiffer.bsky.social with a great message memo for Democrats on "misplaced Republican priorities—tax cuts for the rich, forever wars in the Middle East, and ballrooms for political and moneyed elites." And Trump is helping. He "can't shut up" about the ballroom. open.substack.com/pub/messageb...

I can’t emphasize this enough. Trump’s ballroom is incredibly unpopular. People think it’s a dumb, decadent distraction. And now, Republicans want to spend your taxpayer dollars to build it. This is a midterm gift to Democrats www.messageboxnews.com/publish/post...

All of the headlines say that the Supreme Court just limited the Voting Rights Act. That’s wrong. The Court gave the GOP the permission to racially gerrymander. Here’s what it means www.messageboxnews.com/p/the-suprem...

Ron DeSantis is trying to illegally gerrymander Florida to hold onto the GOP majority. But there's a very good chance that it is going to backfire in a big way. Here's why: www.messageboxnews.com/p/desantis-i...

Trump's poll numbers are worse than ever. Republicans are hoping that this is just a blip related to the Iran War and that Trump’s approval might go up before the midterms. Here’s why they are probably wrong. www.messageboxnews.com/p/why-trumps...

Some are claiming this gerrymandering escalation was triggered by NY not Texas. That’s false. The NY Dems case is comparable to what NC Republicans did — a battle between the legislature and the courts over the post-2020 map. What Texas did is something else: rip up a map they wanted for a new one.

Last night, Virginia Democrats sent an unmistakable message to the whole party - we want Democrats who will fight fire with fire and push the envelope to stop fascism in its tracks. www.messageboxnews.com/p/what-does-...

White working-class voters have been Trump’s most loyal supporters and the lifeblood of the MAGA movement. Even they are now fed up with the chaos, corruption, and high costs. Trump is now underwater with this critical group. Here’s what it means, www.messageboxnews.com/p/the-hidden...

Pundits and the press keep saying that Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, and Joe Rogan turning on Trump doesn’t matter because MAGA voters are sticking with Trump. That could not be more wrong. Here’s why: messagebox.substack.com/p/why-the-ma...

No shit

The calls for the 25th Amendment are understandable but misguided. J.D. Vance and Trump’s cabinet are not accountable to voters in November. We need voters to understand that Trump is only able to act like this because Republicans in Congress let him. messagebox.substack.com/p/the-25th-a...

The definition of a war crime

Donald Trump is enmeshed in an unpopular war that is spiking gas prices. His approval rating is the lowest it’s ever been and he’s facing a brutal political environment. So, why aren’t Democrats winning by more? I have some answers (and it’s pretty hopeful) messagebox.substack.com/p/is-a-blue-...

Trump’s address to the nation was supposed to be a declaration of victory, but it was really an admission of defeat in his war and his second term. www.messageboxnews.com/p/trump-decl...

Here’s what you need to know about the DHS shutdown, which has led to really long TSA wait times at airports across the country. It’s Dona;d Trump’s fault, and voters know that. Here’s why: messagebox.substack.com/p/the-surpri...

High gas prices are always bad for any incumbent president, the price spike related to the Iran War threatens to be particularly devastating to Trump and the Republicans’ chances to keep their majority. messagebox.substack.com/p/why-rising...

While Democrats almost universally oppose Trump’s War in Iran, many of them are considering voting for a bill to fund the war. This would be a catastrophic mistake. Here’s why: messagebox.substack.com/p/no-democra...

Please consider subscribing to this "Message Box" newsletter from @danpfeiffer.bsky.social (link in the newsletter.) A Pro-Trump Billionaire Is About to Own CNN open.substack.com/pub/messageb...

During a war, a democracy needs a vibrant media that can report on what’s happening and hold the government to account. This war is taking place when much of the mainstream media is controlled by pro-Trump billionaires. And that problem is getting worse messagebox.substack.com/p/the-right-...

There are a lot of takes and opinions about @jamestalarico.bsky.social's win in Texas. Most of them are pretty half-baked, but one is very clear. Dems have a real shot at winning Texas this Fall. www.messageboxnews.com/p/democrats-...

"In reality, I broke up with her before she broke up with me."

Donald Trump’s war of choice is only a few days old, but the American people have already made it clear. They don’t want this war, and they don’t trust Trump to handle the war he started. messagebox.substack.com/p/a-war-no-o...

Democrats need to stop complicating something that is actually pretty simple — and loudly, boldly oppose a dumb and dangerous man launching a dumb and dangerous war for no good reason. www.messageboxnews.com/p/trumps-dum...

have some self-respect, jesus

I woke up this morning shocked by the corporate media’s reaction to Trump’s insanely long, disjointed, incoherent speech. If Trump's advisers and GOP strategists really thought the State of the Union was good for them, they are all fucking idiots. www.messageboxnews.com/p/trumps-sta...

I will put it as simply as possible. Donald Trump stole your money The Supreme Court ruled that his tariffs were an illegal tax. Now he has your money, and he won’t give it back. Dems should make returning your money a centerpiece of the midterm message: www.messageboxnews.com/p/trump-stol...

The Supreme Court ruling on tariffs is a brutal rebuke to Trump and the MAGA agenda, but it also massively exacerbates his biggest political problem. www.messageboxnews.com/p/the-suprem...

Right now, Republicans are on the path to lose the House and maybe the Senate. Instead of trying to improve people’s lives, they are trying to steal the midterms. Their plan is very dumb and very dangerous. Here’s how Dems can fight back: www.messageboxnews.com/p/trumps-dan...

Dems get a lot of shit for not fighting hard enough against Trump, but they have stood strong on ICE funding. They have the upper hand in this fight; they can win and absolutely cannot blink, no matter how long it goes www.messageboxnews.com/p/should-dem...

If you were online last weekend, you probably caught some clips from Jon Ossoff’s speech. It’s worth watching the whole thing because it’s an object lesson in how Democrats should communicate in the upcoming midterms. messagebox.substack.com/p/a-speech-e...

Stephen Miller is Trump's most influential advisor. The masked ICE raids terrorizing American communities are his personal project. Donald Trump is in a moment of political crisis, and Miller could cost the GOP the House and Senate. messagebox.substack.com/p/why-stephe...

Something is getting lost in the discussion of Trump targeting Don Lemon and Georgia Fort. This is an attack on the independent media that is aggressively covering Trump. Trump knows how to influence the corporate media; he fears the independent press. messagebox.substack.com/p/the-real-r...

While you were sleeping, Dems flipped a state senate seat in Texas by 14 points in a district Trump won by 17 points in 2024. This is a political earthquake with massive implications for the midterms. www.messageboxnews.com/p/what-happe...

Great fucking work from Trump, RFK Jr and the rest

If your experience is like mine, lots of people in your life who never talk about politics have started to pay attention in recent weeks because of what's happening in Minnesota. Based on internal polling, here's the best way to persuade them messagebox.substack.com/p/how-to-tal...

The country is on fire. We can save it together. This is the plan. THIS IS THE PLAN: HOW TO END AMERICA’S MELTDOWN AND SAVE DEMOCRACY—my first book, published by W.W. Norton—hits shelves (and phones as an ebook and audiobook) on July 21. Preorder now! wwnorton.com/books/this-i...

The killings in Minnesota and ICE terrorizing American cities wouldn’t be possible without the acquiescence of John Thune, Mike Johnson, and the rest of the GOP. Everyone, especially the media, has to stop letting them off the hook. messagebox.substack.com/p/why-republ...

Democrats have been debating how to handle next week's vote on a bill that funds ICE. With today's shooting, that debate should be over. Standing up and using every iota of your limited power is not just the right thing to do; it’s the righteous thing to do. www.messageboxnews.com/p/why-democr...

Some quick thoughts on the brand new NYT that is so devastating that Trump is suing the Times over it messagebox.substack.com/p/why-the-ne...

Donald Trump is a pathetic loser and Dems must say it more often given the stakes our nation faces, argues @danpfeiffer.bsky.social in his latest edition of The Message Box. open.substack.com/pub/messageb...

Trump is a dangerous authoritarian, but he is also a pathetic loser desperate for praise. Someone so insecure that he wants invade Greenland because he didn't win the Nobel Prize. Here's my take on why Dems should ruthlessly ridicule Trump more often messagebox.substack.com/p/trump-is-a...