Looking specifically at the MIN-NYG game for the Giants tank… NYG loss: • NYG get #1 pick: 29.0% • NYG get top 5 pick: 92.3% • avg NYG pick: 2.9 NYG win: • NYG get #1 pick: 5.8% • NYG get top 5 pick: 58.2% • avg NYG pick: 5.0

Week 16 Tank Rooting Guide Based on 40,000 rest-of-season simulations per Week 16 game, fixing each possible outcome.

There is a small path where the Giants lose out and lose the SOS tiebreaker to a 2–15 Titans team. Giants can guarantee the #1 pick if they lose out with these results this week: • 1 win from LAC/JAX/HOU/IND + 1 other win from LAC/JAX/HOU/IND/CLE/ARI/PIT OR • Wins from CLE, ARI, and PIT

Protected Strength of Schedules Based

Week 15 Tank Rooting Guide Find your tanking team's column and root for each logo to win

Draft Pick Probabilities Raiders take the top spot!

Week 14 Tank Rooting Guide "Find your tanking team's column and root for each logo to win"

Strength of Schedule Comparison Games against Top 10 teams* • Patriots: 2 (Bills x2) • Texans: 8 Games against Bottom 10 teams* • Patriots: 10 • Texans: 4 *based on 10k season simulations

Rushing Success Rates (weeks 1-10) The Rams run Outside Zone on just 20% of their rushes (21st most) but are successful on 65%, the highest success rate for any team by 18%(!) (2nd: DEN — 47%). Data: @ftnfantasy.com

Sunday's game between the Patriots and Falcons will be an interior pressure showdown featuring the top three defensive tackles in pressure rate (via @doug-analytics.bsky.social).

The Giants defense played an even mix of man and zone coverage vs Jalen Hurts. Hurts vs man: • 9/10 • 126 yards • 4 TDs • +1.55 EPA/pass • 9.6 yards average depth of completion Hurts vs zone: • 6/10 • 53 yards • -0.15 EPA/pass • 3.1 yards average depth of completion

Eagles’ designed run game vs the Giants: • 27 rushes (none on 3rd down) • 258 yards (most in any game this season) • +0.49 EPA/rush (2nd-highest this season) • 66.7% success (2nd-highest this season)

There have been 7 plays this season where an offense ran the ball with 26+ yards to go for a first down. Only 2 were successful by EPA. Both were against the Giants defense.

How often do defenses rush or drop unexpected players? (weeks 1-7) If I were a defensive coordinator I would simply be in the top right

Rate and EPA/Play for QBs out of the pocket • Joe Flacco does not like being outside the pocket • Dart & Maye with some elite QBs 👀 Data: @ftnfantasy.com

Average # of Pass Rushers (by pre-snap alignment) The Chiefs average 4.97 pass rushers per play and send a DB every ~6 plays, both the highest rates in the league.

Rushing Success Rates (Weeks 1–7) League average success rates: • Man/Duo — 41.2% • Outside Zone — 37.6% • Inside Zone — 38.9% • Power — 38.4% • Counter — 43.1% • QB Sneak — 72.1% Data: @ftnfantasy.com

Time to Throw DEEP and SHORT (weeks 1-7 pre-MNF) Every QB has a higher average Time to Throw on attempts 20+ air yards than <10 air yards. Caleb Williams TTT • 20+ air yards: 4.60s • <10 air yards: 2.72s

Giants Big 4 Snap Combinations (weeks 1-5) • All 4 together: 25% of snaps • At least 3 of 4: 69% • At least 2 of 4: 93% Burns, Thibodeaux, Carter - All 3 on field: 46% pressure rate - 2 of 3 on field: 32%

The Eagles have reached the RedZone on just 24.5% of drives (26th), but have scored a TD on all but one of those trips (92.3%, 1st) The Giants have reached the RedZone on 37.3% of drives (8th), but have scored a TD on only 31.6% of those trips (32nd)

Play-Action % & Motion at Snap % (weeks 1-5) Some good offenses in the top right Data charted by @ftnfantasy.com

Defensive Line Stunts NYG usage (pressure % with stunts): • Week 1: 3% (0%) • Week 2: 7% (25%) • Week 3: 10% (50%) • Week 4: 23% (70%!) • Week 5: 16% (0%)

Offensive Rushing Success Rates (broken down by run concept) Klayton Adams must be pretty good huh Run concepts charted by @ftnfantasy.com

Receiving Yards by Target Location Puka Nacua leads the NFL in receiving yards down the seams (435), and only 3 WRs have more total receiving yards.

Based on NGS player tracking at handoff, the Eagles have the lowest expected rushing yards per carry in the NFL (3.18 xYPC). Defenses have stacked the box with 8+ defenders on 30.3% of their runs, 4th highest in the league. The Giants average 6.1 men in the box (2nd fewest)

Despite his rate of <10 air yard attempts dropping each week, Jalen Hurts has still targeted receivers under 10 air yards at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL this season (72%). The Giants defense has allowed the 4th fewest yards/attempt on passes under 10 air yards.

Only 6.7% of Jaxson Dart’s pass attempts (4 of 60) have gone to receivers with less than 1 yard of separation, the lowest rate among QBs with 40+ attempts, per NextGenStats. The Eagles defense has forced tight-window throws on 24% of opponent attempts, 2nd highest in the NFL.

Bobby Okereke has 48 tackles, 4th most among linebackers. Of those, 21 (44%) have resulted in negative EPA, per NextGenStats. His 21 run stops on 121 run defense snaps (17.4%) is the highest rate among LBs with 50+ run snaps.

The Texans defense is making QBs hurry: • 2.59s avg time to throw (fastest vs any defense) • 2.42s avg time to pressure (fastest in NFL) • Opponents throw 0.15s quicker than their season average (largest gap in league)

Giants & Eagles weekly run concepts charted by @ftnfantasy.com

Which CBs get picked on the most? (weeks 1-5) Based on target rate and catch rate over expected as the nearest defender

Pressure % and Time to Pressure (DT Alignment only - NGS)

Pressure % and Time to Pressure (EDGE Alignment only - NGS) Abdul Carter continues to shine with the fastest time to pressure, per NextGenStats

The Giants lead the NFL in 20+ air yard attempts. All 7 of their completions came in one game vs Dallas. They’re 0/15 on deep shots in the other four games.

Air Yard Differential (completed - attempted air yards) Jaxson Dart has averaged 8.0 air yards per attempt but only 3.1 air yards per completion, for the worst difference in the league at -4.9 air yards.

QB EPA/Play Rankings (weeks 1-5 pre-MNF) 1) Sam Darnold: +0.37 2) Daniel Jones: +0.36 3) Jordan Love: +0.35

Snap Weighted Team Ages • Youngest: Packers (25.5 years old) • Oldest: Commanders (28.4 years old)

Skill Player Motion Frequencies y-axis: Motion at the snap x-axis: Pre-snap motion

It’s never too early 2026 Draft Pick Probabilities

Target Percentage by Position (weeks 1-4)

EPA/Dropback when IN and OUT of the Pocket Data: @ftnfantasy.com

How often do QBs stay in the pocket and how well do they perform when they do?

Pressure Rate with and without Stunts Data: @ftnfantasy.com

Which teams use the most DL stunts and do they pressure QBs more or less when they do? Seahawks • 21.3% usage (7th) • +26.4% pressure difference (1st)

My favorite graphic is back and the top names are starting to fall into place. Abdul Carter 👀

The Giants doubled their season stunt total with 10 vs the Chargers, per @ftnfantasy.com They generated pressures on 7 of them (70%) compared to 33% without stunts for a 37% boost, the 2nd largest gap this season for any defense with 5+ stunts in a game.

EPA/Play with & without pressure • Fields and Penix are the only QBs better under pressure • Jordan Love: best EPA/play clean, 6th worst pressured • Daniel Jones… good under pressure??

Yards per Route Run from Out Wide and Slot Before his injury, Tyreek Hill was 2nd in the NFL in YPRR when lined out wide.

QB EPA/Play Rankings (weeks 1-4 | min 40 plays) 1) Josh Allen: +0.35 2) Jordan Love: +0.35 3) Daniel Jones: +0.31

Rookie running backs ran for 737 yards this week. Most by any rookie class in any week of September football in NFL history.